Dan Hamilton's Blog

Back to blogging?

2010-02-10T22:23:00.001-05:00

It's been a while since I have updated this blog. The reason I had left it alone for so long is that I began to use Twitter. Twitter, combined with google reader's "share with note" feature is a great way to "micro blog". Add in facebook and you suddenly have a pretty full featured communication/social/content creation tool.

The problem? As you would expect - limitations. 140 characters is not always the best way to express ideas/thoughts/commentary.

So, back to blogging. At least on occasion.

So, even though the last post to this blog was back in 2008, you can still find out what's been happening since then via my shared feed on google reader or my tweets.

Only good news for NJ tonight:

2009-11-03T22:08:00.000-05:00

AP just called the race in NJ, but there is good news.

Cory Booker can now run for Gov. in 2013.

wiki entry

Renegade

2009-06-02T19:19:00.003-04:00

So I am about 3/4 through the new Richard Wolff book on the Obama campaign, Renegade and I came across this....

Remember when There were posts all over the blogsphere was flipping out right after the Palin pick?

Remember that this was posted:

Well...looks like somebody read Obama's mind:

"His friend Marty Nesbitt shared with him an e-mailed photo, which summed up their collective response to weak-kneed Democrats. It was a picture of the candidate delivering his convention speech, with the caption "Everyone Chill the Fuck Out. I Got This."
Obama chuckled. "Exactly," he said. "That's exactly how I feel"."

Thinking that maybe the freakout I'm seeing on healthcare might require the same response.

Barack Obama, Couch Potato?

2008-11-14T00:02:00.001-05:00

The New York Times has an article out tonight that examines President-Elect Obama's whereabouts since he was elected. I noticed this:

After two years of daily speeches and rallies, he has retreated into an almost hermitlike seclusion, largely hidden from public view and spotted only when he drops his two daughters off for school or goes for a workout at the gymnasium in a friend’s apartment building.

Now, the press (and perhaps the world) seems to be waiting with bated breath for Obama's next move, next statement or next appointment. But, after the last several days it looks like Obama has decided to spend the next several weeks working from Chicago. He resigned his Senate seat today (effective Sunday) so apparently there will not be a valedictory appearance on the floor of the Senate as there was after he had secured the nomination.

The Times article notes that Obama may spend as little time as possible in Washington until Inauguration day. The Obama transition team has noted that appointments will be announced from Chicago and not Washington. So, for all you sooth sayers out there - keep an eye on the passengers arriving at O'Hare (anybody want to know where Hillary Clinton was today?).

Its beginning to look like this transition will be managed the same way the campaign was: no drama. Right now, it looks like Obama wants a 9 to 5, workmanlike existence. Perhaps even a bit of couch potato time (and I would expect a trip back to Hawaii around the holidays for his Grandmother's memorial service) before January 2009.

For a guy who excited all those crowds, sounds really boring. No doubt just the way Obama wants it.

Election 08: Winners & Losers

2008-11-05T20:56:00.000-05:00

After 2 years, and too many hours in front of the computer reading the websites and blogs late at night, there are a few winners and losers to call out.

Now, I am sure there are other winners and losers, but these few stand out to someone who has been reading the political blogs from pretty much the time political blogging got its start around the 2000 election.

First, the winners:

1. President-Elect Barack Obama and his amazing New Media Team. Probably changed political campaigns forever. (with a hat tip to Howard Dean and his 2004 team)

2. Markos Moulitsas Zúniga and the entire Daily Kos community. They got behind Obama early, losing a lot of Clinton supporting community members in the process, and become what was primarily the initial driving force on the net for Obama. Kos himself has a lot to crow about but one thing that might be overlooked is his book Crashing the Gate, which provided many markers along the road to victory for the Democratic party this election (sadly, his co-author finds himself in my loser list below).

3. Nate Silver. From an anonymous poster at Daily Kos to the mastermind of political simulations at FiveThirtyEight.com he both conducted a master class in political polling and interpretation and absolutely NAILED the final results of many of the primaries and the general election. With the exception of Indiana (but who is complaining) - check out his final projection map and compare it to the final election results - they are identical and, his popular vote projection is amazing. Come next election I suspect he will be fending off offers to bring his statistical models to network TV (the HDNet gig was cool, but, judging from his appearances on the big news networks, he will be somebody is sure to want him as 2012's Chuck Todd).

4. Andrew Sullivan. A journalist who seems to have become more of a blogger, Sullivan was the first conservative blogger to note that the emperor had no clothes (and, has paid a price for it among the red state bloggers) and get behind Obama in a big way (come to think of it, I can't think of another conservative blogger who supported Obama). His influence was on display after the Palin pick when the entire internet was abuzz with rumors (which were routinely shouted down at Daily Kos) about Govenor Palin's pregnancy and Bristol Palin. Sullivan was the first "big name" to mention it. The next morning Palin announced her 17 year old was pregnant, likely forced on it by a "big name" blogger addressing the issue.

5. The Huffington Post. Established itself as the left's answer to the Drudge Report rather than a community like Daily Kos or MyDD, which is its major accomplishment. Although it did have a hand in the bittergate story, I would like to see it invite more of the unknown netroots community onto its front page posts rather than Hollywood celbs and mainstream journalists.

6. Politico.com. Although I would not classify Politico as part of the netroots, it "made its bones" this election as a place for political reporting.

7. Talking Points Memo. Josh Marshall, already an established journalist, established himself and his TPM operation as a serious internet based publication.

Now, the Losers:

1. By definition, Red State and The Corner are losers, but I put them as the biggest losers for their total loss of reality as it became clear that Obama was going to win and Palin was a disaster pick for the country.

2. Drudge Report from hyping non-stories to making up crazy poll numbers looks like Matt Drudge is not ruling anyones world right now.

3. Although I hate to do it, I have to put Jerome Armstrong, founder of MyDD in my losers column. He backed the wrong horse in the primaries and seemed to be living in an alternate realty as Clinton's hopes vanished (on this note, let me add Taylor Marsh to that category). Even when Obama won, Armstrong seemed to be grudgingly and half heartedly behind the Democratic ticket when he made his ever infrequent appearances on the site he founded.

4. The Clinton and McCain web teams. They were just out everythinged by the Obama New Media team.

So. I am sure there are more...your thoughts?

Rahm as Chief of Staff ???

2008-11-05T16:32:00.001-05:00

I am of mixed feelings regarding Emanuel, as is Ezra Klein

Emanuel is a brawler. He's legendarily tough and effective and ruthless. Hes the type of guy who makes enemies, then makes lists of his enemies, then makes lists of his enemies' friends, then makes lists of how they'll pay. If you thought the Obama administration would be all about bringing people together and would simply make sad faces when stubborn congressmen refused to come to the table, this is a clear sign otherwise. If good feelings don't suffice, bareknuckle politics will happily be employed...
Emanuel warns Democrats away from attempting universal health insurance or comprehensive reform, and suggests they content themselves with expanding S-CHIP (he also gives a plug to his brother, Ezekiel Emanuel's, health care plan, but says his "plan is well beyond Washington's current reach."). That's not change we can believe in.

If Obama uses Emanuel right, he will be the pit bull - the bad cop to Obama's good cop. But, the danger is if Obama is overly influenced by Emanuel's desire for practicality over possibility, the changes Obama was elected to enact may be more incremental than revolutionary.

How McCain could still win

2008-10-27T01:11:00.000-04:00

So, a new article at Salon i confident because McCain could still win. Here's why...

Salon has a new article up where its author (a republican) argues that unless Obama is above 50% in a state, he will likely not win that state. He contends that undecideds will break for McCain, not Obama:

There's an old rule in politics that an incumbent candidate is always in danger when he dips under 50 percent, even if he is leading his opponent in the polls. It's all about the undecideds. In a race with an incumbent candidate and a challenger, on Election Day the undecideds tend to break for the challenger, at rates as high as 4 to 1. If an incumbent is polling at, say, 47 to 45 percent with 8 percent undecided, there's a good chance he's going to wind up losing 49 to 51. As it's sometimes expressed, if you're an incumbent, what you see is what you get.

The same pattern seems to be true for African-American candidates in much of the country. If you're a black candidate running against a white candidate, what you see is what you get. And it doesn't matter whether you're an incumbent or a challenger. If you're not polling above 50 percent, you should be worried. As of this writing, Barack Obama is not polling consistently above 50 percent in a number of electoral-vote-rich swing states, including Ohio and Florida. He should be worried.

...

As you look at the polling data in the homestretch of this election, pay close attention whenever you see any numbers, be they statewide or national, where Sen. Obama is below 50 percent. So long as there are more than a handful of voters describing themselves as undecided, I will maintain that Sen. McCain is very much in the race. Even if Sen. Obama were to open a larger lead, my basis for analyzing things would remain the same. Are there enough undecided voters in crucial states to bridge whatever gap exists in the head-to-head? If so, don't be shocked if on Election Day, Sen. McCain is your winner.

As of right now, if I take that argument as true and start plugging in the numbers from the RCP state polling averages as of today, I get:

Obama 286 EV
McCain 252 EV

Obama wins: VA, CO, NM, MN, IA, NH, PA
McCain wins just about every other battleground: FL, OH, IN, NC, GA, NV

If McCain flips PA - which, remember has NO early voting, then he wins the election. This could explain why McCain is spending so much time this week in PA and Obama is going there on tuesday.

If McCain can't flip PA, then he can try and flip VA and NH for the win.

Looking at Nate Silver's averages over at 538.com makes it even scarier:

Obama is < 50 % in CO, VA and NHSo, using 538's averages, McCain wins 278 EV to 260 EVCross-Posted at Late Night Pundit

I am not a concern troll. Let me make some points below:

First, read the Salon article. Yes the guy is a republican. Maybe he has an agenda to show some way McCain can win. You can either credit it as worthy or not. That's not really my point. My point is he could be right and then to do an analysis to see what would happen if he is.

The Salon article uses stats from other elections to prove his argument. Some of the elections he uses I have a problem with (the Blackwell one for example). But, I also know 3 things:

First, in most of the battlegrounds where Obama is ahead, he is not over 50% in the averages. Yes, the averages include crap polls from Zogby, but this is more a what if analysis so I am going to accept them. It might be worthwhile to come back and revisit it later this week.

Second, there are still pockets of racism in this country. Thank god they seem to be fewer and further between than they were 10 years ago. Unfortunately, the evidence points to the fact that they exist in many of there battleground states. And I don't see the Salon article as arguing for the Bradley effect. Nate Silver convinced me it does not exist with his analysis. I see this as something different, as does (I think) Nate:

It's also clear that there were some patterns in the way that undecided white voters behaved. Number one, a majority of them -- probably somewhere between 60 and 65 percent -- wound up voting for Clinton. This is perhaps not so remarkable, considering that about 60 percent of white voters in the primaries voted for Clinton period. But, this figure was higher in regions like the Appalachians, and among groups like Catholics, and lower in places where you had a lot of WASPy, educated voters. So whether or not you label this a Bradley Effect, I don't know -- but the behavior of undecided voters has been predictable to a certain extent.

Now, it does not necessarily follow that the patterns exhibited by undecided voters in the primaries will match those in the general election. But based both on my research and on what I've been hearing from people on the ground, it's apparent that the public polling in general is not terrific, and that if we have an instinct about where the polls are more likely to come in high or low, we probably ought to follow it.

The 538.com prediction model was updated to account for this:

Take a state like West Virginia, where the polling has been reasonably close but where there are also high numbers of undecided voters. Those undecideds aren't the type of undecideds who are liable to side with Barack Obama when pushed to a decision, and so the state is not quite as promising for him as it looks on paper. There are also a fairly high number of undecideds in Ohio, a state where we think the undecided vote is liable to break slightly for John McCain. On the other hand, a state like Virginia, where Obama overperformed his polls during the primaries and where some polling has had a relatively generous (and probably false) number of African-American votes going to John McCain, might be just a smidgen stronger for Obama than it appears.

So, unless I am way off base, I think 538.com sees the same effect that that Salon author does (Hopefully 538.com will address this Salon article).

Finally, I believe in the old adage that undecides break for the challenger. Except in this election, there is no incumbant. I could make an argument that McCain is the incumbant, being so tied to Bush. I could also make an argument that Obama is the incumbant since everybody and their brother thinks he's gonna win. But I do know that based on the polls in the battlegrounds, undecideds could tip them one way or another.

Do I think this guy is wrong? I do, but until those last votes are cast on Nov. 4 I am not going to count any chickens.

13 Seconds that may change the world

2008-10-26T23:30:00.001-04:00

Well, not really 13 seconds, but 13 seconds of video are all that exist. Here they are:

On October 2, 2002, Barack Obama gave this speech to a Chicago anti-war rally. Here is the text of entire speech.

With just over a week until the election, it is important to note that this speech, assuming nothing goes horribly wrong in the last 8 days, probably will win Barack Obama the Presidency. A speech given by a little known Illinois Democratic State Senator (who was probably going to run for the United States Senate in 2004, although nobody outside of Illinois knew it) taking a position against the Iraq war that was, at the time, not only terribly unpopular in the country as a whole, but even unpopular within his own party.

Now, I know Obama was not the only politician who believed the Iraq war was dumb, I suspect many who voted for the war thought so too, but he was one of the very few to publicly take a stand. And, yes, he would give the universally praised Democratic Convention keynote address in 2004. But, it was this speech, this judgement, this act of courage, that Obama wielded against Hillary Clinton and the other Democratic contenders in Iowa.

A lot has changed since then. Of course, Obama ran a brilliant primary campaign and put forth a message, not only about the war but about all the issues, that seems to have resonated with the voters. And although our attention has shifted, right or wrong, to the economy, with 8 days left I thought it was important to take a moment to remember these 13 seconds.

Did McCain Forfeit the Election with Palin Pick?

2008-10-24T21:51:00.001-04:00

There has been a lot of talk about the disaster that is the Presidential Campaign of John McCain, but that's the nature of disasters - they get your attention - which brings me to the subject of this post.

Before the conventions, the conventional wisdom among the professional pundit class was: if John McCain can make the election about Barack Obama, then he had a shot at winning. Assuming that this was a correct assessment, 3 big factors occurred that derailed this strategy for McCain, only one of which McCain had any control over: Sarah Palin, the financial crisis and Barack Obama.

At the end of August, the media narrative was all on Obama, arguably to the detriment of McCain who seemed to be struggling to get a message across. Of course, we now know McCain really had no message besides warmed over 1980's deregulation and tax cuts and "winning" in Iraq, all of which had been (Iraq) or was about to be seriously exposed to even the casual observer as fatally flawed. Nevertheless, the media obsessed over one question: could Obama bring in the Hillary hold outs? Even after a highly successful Democratic Convention, the answer media gave was not yes, but a skeptical maybe.

The focus of the media and the public then turned to McCain (for the first time in months) thanks to the Republican Convention and he made the worse possible decision he could. Lets assume for a moment that Sarah Palin was actually qualified to be Vice President (pardon me while I gag at the thought of actually writing that). Palin was a bad pick for the sheer fact that she took the focus off Obama and put it on McCain, well actually on Palin herself, but the effect was the same. That McCain and his advisors did not anticipate this is simply political malpractice.

I am still aghast at how they thought that choosing an unknown female governor was not going to draw attention from Obama. Palin's "newness" (and being a woman) turned her into the biggest political celebrity in the country (and made Obama look almost boring for a time). How the McCain brain trust could have possibly thought this was a good thing after a summer's worth of "celebrity" attacks on Obama is beyond me. Remember the media narrative was whether Obama was ready to be President and whether the country was ready for him. By picking Palin, McCain completely changed that narrative.

Yes, Palin's meager experience seriously undermined McCain's experience argument. But that is not the point. Nobody knew who she was! Nobody (well maybe Kristol and a few political junkies) - not even some of McCain's own staff, as we learned from the New York Times this week. At the time, it made no sense to me (it still doesn't) for two reasons: first, the professional political pundits and media (McCain's "base") don't like to appear to be surprised (which I suspect they interpret as being "shown up") and second, the voters, no matter how much they gripe about the political process and vetting of the primaries and general election, nevertheless accept it as they way it is done.

If you are running for President or Vice President there are certain hoops you have to jump through - experience as a leading corporate executive or as a state executive or senior legislator (i.e. U.S. Senator or Congressperson), "X" number appearances on Sunday morning shows (and yes, nobody watches them but they are still an informal institution), "X" number of appearances supporting the presumptive nominee, "X" number of news interviews, etc (and there are some short cuts - you can always be a failed aspirant for your party's nomination but even then, you have probably jumped through the hoops during the primaries). But, with Palin there was none of this. Governor Bobby Jindal had jumped through many of these hoops, so did Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina - all three very little known outside political junkies and professional pundits - and all three would have been considered "surprise" picks.

Palin, on the other hand, was in a category so far out of the ballpark it still boggles my mind. It was such a risky move that it required a near perfect political performance - all before she even opened her mouth in public to accept the selection. If they really wanted Palin, she should have been out doing appearances in support of John McCain the entire summer. This would have, at a minimum, given the press and the public the opportunity to get to know her and attempted to satisfy the requisite "hoops" required. If she had done this, it may have helped blunt some of the disasters that came after her selection (well...maybe not - she still is totally unqualified). Instead, she was plucked from obscurity from some Alaskan backwater.

Of course, she and McCain blew it so bad I have begun to seriously consider possibility that McCain wanted to lose the election. The obvious lack of serious vetting, the spur of the moment selection, the teenage pregnancy, the flagrant abuse of power as Governor of Alaska to further a personal vendetta against Palin's ex-brother in law, the refusal to have a news conference, the shockingly awful Catie Couric interview, the lack of any serious thinking or policy positions on national issues, the $150,000 wardrobe, the $28,000 make up artist. Not to mention the horrid and vile manner in which she has campaigned. All told, proof positive of two things: Palin is totally unqualified to be the Governor of the least populous state in the union, let alone Vice President, and John McCain's judgement is seriously flawed.

In any event, lets assume that Palin is not the disaster she has proven to be and in some fantasy world passed the minimum threshold "qualified to be vice president" (i.e. the Dan Quayle Threshold - stupid but not scary stupid). The next big factor McCain ran up against was the financial crisis.

In hindsight, it is obvious that McCain blew the response to the financial crisis. Yes, his economic philosophy is warmed over Reganism, which is now proven to be disastrous in large doses. Yes, McCain did not help himself with the "fundamentals of the economy are strong" speech. Yes, he has a hero complex and, like superman wanted to swoop into Washington to save the day.

But, the campaign suspension and the White House conference with House Republicans might have worked. McCain could have done one of two things at that White House meeting - either opened his mouth and actually engaged Obama and the House Republicans to try and get something done or, kept his mouth shut, walked out of the White House into a herd of TV cameras and denounced the bailout as a flawed giveaway to wall street and that he was with the House Republicans and would work to defeat it to get something better.

Would either of these actually helped solve the financial crisis? Thats not the point. Politically, one or the other action could have shown McCain to be either someone willing to work to help get things done or, the maverick who bucks the President from his own party on principle. Either of these would have drawn a line in the sand that Obama would have to answer. McCain's suspension gambit could have worked. But, he essentially did nothing and ended up looking erratic and, in the end, causing more harm than good as the financial bailout was stalled by his actions (and the Republican House) for several days.

As an aside, and I suspect the Obama campaign would never want to tout this as a political accomplishment, but their whole strategy with respect to McCain and the financial crisis was masterful. With some help from McCain's inaction and unwillingness to either take a stand or work to pass the bailout, they were able to essentially lay the blame for the loss of billions of dollars when the stock market tanked on McCain's erratic behavior. Of course, they never really came out and put it in those terms, but that was clearly the message they were pushing.

Finally, that brings us to the one factor McCain had no control over: Barack Obama and really the point of this (apologetically long) post. Because, despite the totally unqualified Vice Presidential pick and her litany of disasters, despite the erratic nature of John McCain's decision making, the conventional wisdom from mid summer is still true: this election is still about Barack Obama and he has come through with flying colors. If John McCain had picked a qualified VP, if his campaign suspension had actually accomplished something - he still could not have overcome "the strength of will, character and intellect, sober judgment and a cool, steady hand" of Barack Obama and his juggernaut of a campaign.

After Obama's string of primary wins, when it became apparent to most rational people (sorry for the dig) that he would be the nominee, I argued to those who would listen that this election, because of the disaster of the last eight years and the demographic advantage democrats now have, would be very similar to the Reagan - Carter election in 1980. For those not around, Reagan had a similar hurdle to overcome - he had to convince the voters he was not a total lunatic and would be a responsible choice for President. In 1980, Reagan didn't do this until the (only) Presidential debate in late October. But after that debate, what was up to that point a close election, became a rout.

Like Reagan in 1980, Obama passed the threshold after the debates and with 10 days to go, it is looking like it might be an Electoral College rout. Today Obama has an 8 point average national lead in the polls, he's competive in every battleground left on the map (all of which are states that voted for Bush in 2004) and some red states that nobody would have thought as battlegrounds and, check out these numbers from this week's New York Times/CBS poll:

Do you think Barack Obama has the right kind of temperament and personality to be a good president, or not?
Yes: 75%
No: 19%

Now, this poll had Obama beating McCain, 52% to 39%, which means a significant percentage of people who said they were going to vote for McCain believe Barack Obama has the right temperament and personality to be a good President (By the way, McCain's numbers on the temperament were 50 % Yes, 45% No).

What this all means is that this election has been about Barack Obama. While the voters were unsure of his temperament, it was a close election. Many of the professional pundits (and some democrats) spent the summer worrying about why, if this was such good year for Democrats, Obama was not up by 10 in the polls. Well, since the first couple of debates, Obama has essentially been up by 10 and its remained that way for the past few weeks. It is looking more and more like the election of 1980.

Now, there are still 10 days to go. Something could happen to change everything. People could get complacent and not vote (note to all you McCain supports: I'd be quite happy if you stayed home on November 4) or external events could make people re-think their comfort with Obama. But, I think the conventional wisdom (and the McCain campaign) is coming around to the fact that Obama will be the next President.

So, my answer to the question posed in the title of this post is No, John McCain did not forfeit the election with his pick of Sarah Palin. Barack Obama is going to win because of who he is. What is left to do is to make it happen on November 4.

McCain Behind the Scenes

2008-10-22T14:20:00.001-04:00

Today's essential reading. This article already has the pundits buzzing. The NYT Magazine will publish the whole story this Sunday.

Shock AP poll: Tied

2008-10-22T14:19:00.001-04:00

Well, today's shock poll comes from the AP and shows that the race is essentially tied among "likely voters":

Obama 44
McCain 33
margin of error +/- 3.5

I have to assume this is an outlier as all the other polls have Obama up at least 6 (NBC has it at 10, and even Fox news has Obama up 9).

I took a peak at the crosstabs and there has to be something wrong with AP's likely voter screen. The AP shows Obama with a 10 point lead (Obama 46, McCain 37) before they apply their likely voter model. I am sure Nate Silver will figure all this out over at fivethirtyeight.com.

Palin's $150,000 Wardrobe

2008-10-22T14:03:00.001-04:00

The news that seems to be getting all the attention today is the McCain campaign buying it's VP candidate $150,000 worth of clothing.

Personally, even though this spending by the McCain campaign might be illegal, I still think it's a stupid story. One point though: Under the Obama tax plan, Palin's $150K wardrobe would get a tax break. LOL.

The bigger story today is that the state of the race is still pretty stable. Obama is still leading in the polls by 5 or 6 (and may have gained a point or two over the last couple of days), early voting is still going great for Obama, and McCain is still flailing away trying to get any positive traction (and I don't think that al-Qaeda endorsement of McCain for president counts).

With 13 days left until election day, and not counting chickens, things are looking good.

A Must Read For Polling Junkies

2008-10-21T10:06:00.004-04:00

I try not to obsess over polls. Unfortunately, I tend to forget that. Luckily, Nate Silver's wonderful fivethirtyeight.com is around to satisfy my poll cravings.

Nate has an absolute must read on tracking polls today. He breaks down each tracking poll, noting the time released, the poll's track record, strengths and weaknesses.

If your reading my blog, I am sure your are reading his. If not, you should be.

McCain: Realistic or Delusional?

2008-10-20T18:35:00.002-04:00

So, they finally have given up on Iowa and also Colorado?

What's that leave? Pennsylvania!

Good God. Just go back to Arizona and campaign there the next 14 days Senator McCain. javascript:void(0)

Republican Election Spending

2008-10-20T13:38:00.002-04:00

A quick thought. Last week, at the height of the Obama lead in the polls, there was some talk here and there among pundits that the Republicans should divert money from McCain to some of the closer US Senate races - a la Bob Dole in 1996.

Now, there have been cases reported of Republicans redistributing resources (e.g. Michigan, some cut back on McCain joint ads with the RNC) but, from what I have seen so far, there has not yet been a wholesale flight of money from McCain to Republican Senators in tight races.

If it is going to happen, my guess is that it will happen this week. It will be very instructive to see what the RNC ad buys are for this coming weekend and next week. If you see a lot of cash to try and prop up Republican Senators, then you can probably assume that the big shots in the Republican party have wriiten off John McCain.

Also, look to see where McCain spends his time next week. If he does a lot of appearences in states where the Republican Senator is in trouble, the race for the White House us probably over (of course, given how bad McCain/Palin is doing in the polls, they could be told to stay away from those states too).

Finally, what kind of cool aid is the McCain campaign drinking? On a conference call today, Rick Davis from the McCain campaign said that McCain's polling shows a tight race in Iowa. Unless something had drastically changed on the ground, Iowa has not been in play for weeks. Obama has been up big for weeks in all the polls in Iowa. Yet, for some reason McCain continues to think that he has a shot there. In fact, as I recall, McCain made a visit to Iowa recently and the pundits were all asking why. Has the McCain campaign left the reality based community or do they know something that nobody else does? This is puzzling and worrying at the same time, on a variety of levels.

Vote Early, part 2

2008-10-20T11:48:00.004-04:00

An excellent resource:

Vote Early

2008-10-20T11:30:00.002-04:00

With 15 days to go, the national polls seem to have tightened a bit. What was an average Obama lead of 7 or 8 points is now down to 5 or 6. But, the polls of the battleground states are still looking good for Obama. Of course, battleground polls have been lagging behind the national numbers all fall. Something to keep an eye on.

So the first big story on early voting trends came out today. Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, Nevada and Ohio early voters are predominantly democrats. Republicans hold an edge on early voters in Florida and it looks to be about even in Indiana.

McCain needs all these states so the democratic advantage in Ohio and North Carolina is hopeful for Obama. Florida is a concern, especially since I am afraid the Obama campaign may be falling into the "Florida trap" by spending a lot of time and effort there in what may be a lost cause. Maybe it's the ghost of 2000 but I just don't trust the polls out of Florida showing that Obama is ahead.

Finally Fall

2008-10-19T17:53:00.004-04:00

Fall officially started several weeks ago but, here in New Jersey it has been unseasonably warm. Until today. There's a chill in the air and, despite my spending a lot of money to remove two large trees a couple of years ago, leaves all over my yard, seemly overnight.

Colin Powell Endorses Obama

2008-10-19T17:15:00.002-04:00

I don't think endorsements mean too much, but this one could push some rational republicans over the fence.

Been busy

2008-10-19T15:58:00.002-04:00

Well I have been busy for the past several weeks. Since my last post, a lot has happened in the Presidential race. I won't rehash it all, but with 16 days to go, it looks like Barak Obama will be the 44th President of the United States.

Of course, 16 days is an lifetime in politics. Remember that just over 16 days ago, this race was tied, so anything can happen between now and November 4.

I've been asked to help out the Obama campaign in PA for the last 3 days of the election so that should be interesting. In the meantime, I hope to have this blog updated more frequently. One of the things that I find is I have a hard time trying to find the time to sit down and write posts. But, I may have found a solution. I have never been a big fan of email posts, but I think I might have stumbled upon a great little app for my iPhone that will let me post more frequently. Well see.

An Audacious Head Fake?

2008-10-08T22:20:00.002-04:00

So, as everyone knows John McCain has decided to engage is gutter politics and will probably throw the Kitchen Sink at Obama the next 3 weeks.

Obama's obviously got a 3 tier response - first, talk about the economy; second, run positive biography Ads; and third, hit right back (e.g. Keating Five). But, come the end of Tuesday's debate Obama could have a fourth tack: take John McCain aside and say "lay off or I am coming after Arizona".

What! Arizona? McCain's home state? Am I crazy? Maybe not....

I try not to look at Karl Rove's election analysis but this caught my eye yesterday:

http://www.rove.com/images/0000/0088...

So I was looking for the remaining red states where it might behoove the Obama campaign to out some token money into and maybe have a rally. I was looking for red states where McCain's lead was < 10 pts. Here's the list:

Arkansas (McCain +9)
Georgia (McCain +8)
and...drumroll please:
Arizona where Rove puts McCain at +8

Now, if you have been following the election at all, you probably have heard that Georgia is an Obama "wish state" - they have put up a bit of an effort there to try and see if increase voter registration and youth and african american turn out could put the state in play. The last I heard (any please comment below if you know different), that doesn't look like it will pan out. But, Arizona is McCain's home state and he's only up 8? Obama is up 17 in Illinois. McCain should be way ahead of that. So I did more digging:

Pollster's got Arizona at 51.4% McCain to 38.9% Obama. But look at the polls that make up that aggregate:

Rassumussen on 9/29: McCain 59, Obama 38
ASU on 9/28: McCain McCain 45, Obama 38, Undecided 15
ARG on 9/14: McCain 56, Obama 39

OK. Not looking too good but two things jump out: first the polls are kind of getting long in the tooth on October 8, could the massive shift Obama has seen in the last week have played out in Arizona? Second, that ASU undecided number of 15...

So over to Nate Silver and what does he say about Arizona? Well, his model has got McCain winning 94% of the time (he's got Obama winning IL 100% of the time). The 538 projection for Arizona has it at McCain 54.4% and Obama 43.1% with a Margin of Error of +or- 7.7%.

SO...

Now you are saying - OK..McCain's a virtual lock on Arizona - what's your point? Well the points are the following:

First, McCain is not Mr. Popularity or Mr. Congeniality in Arizona. As late as June, the McCain campaign was projecting Arizona as a possible swing state.

Second, Obama probably (and this needs to be confirmed) has zero investment in Arizona.

So the play is this:

Throw a little ad buy in Arizona and, drop in for a rally on the way to Colorado or Nevada and see what the internal polls show.

If there is movement, lay it out for McCain: lay off the gutter attacks or be forced to spend money and campaign in your home state. If there is no movement, reap the publicity of actually campaigning (even for a couple of hours) in McCain's home state.

Now look, the only way McCain looses his home state is a 400 plus electoral vote landslide for Obama (and maybe not even then). But, what an audacious head fake this would be.

Thoughts?

The Other Side of the Palin Pick

2008-09-02T11:28:00.003-04:00

I have always considered Jerome Armstrong a "sky is falling", "glass half empty" kind of guy, even more so since Hillary Clinton was beaten in the primaries but, he very well may have a point on Palin.

Basically, he says that the truly horrid VP roll out means nothing because Palin has energized the base and thereby put into play the GOP ground game for the election.

Definitely worth a read.

Palin: the new Eagleton

2008-09-02T02:02:00.003-04:00

OK. I'm going on the record here. Sarah Palin will withdraw as McCain's VP.

Why?

Well, she is just getting killed as are republicans trying to defend her. It seems like every hour there is a new revelation about her and none of it is good.

So far I count the following:

1. Troopergate: They have got a confession on tape from an aid and emails. I suspect they will be able to prove abuse of power
2. for the bridge to nowhere before she was against it
3. Member of the Alaska Secessionist Party
4. Directed fundraising for Indicted Sen Stevens' 527
5. Totally unqualified for the job
oh and...
6. Has a 17 yr old who is 5 months pregnant (although I put this at the bottom of the disqualifying items since it should not matter at all)

This VP rollout was just so so badly managed by the McCain campaign. It is clear they did not vet her at all, no matter how much they deny it.

So, I can safely say she will not be on the ballot come November. If I had to hazard a guess, if she has another bad news day tomorrow, by Wednesday afternoon she will withdraw. If she can somehow survive the week, I give it no more than 2 weeks.

DNC 2008: Day 4 The Speech

2008-08-29T01:32:00.003-04:00

Damn near perfect.

Watch or read it. My thoughts would only diminish it.

DNC 2008: Day 2

2008-08-27T01:13:00.005-04:00

Well, day 2 is over. The red meat was served with a dessert of Unity.

Thoughts:

Sebelius: Ok speech, but I see now why she was not picked as VP. The majority of her speech covered Obama's economic proposals and the delivery was a little flat, but she had a great dig on McCain:

I’m sure you remember a girl from Kansas who said there’s no place like home. Well, in John McCain’s version, there’s no place like home. And a home. And home. And home.

Strickland: Good speech, although, again, not someone who fires up a room but an awesome line:

George W. Bush came into office on third base… and then he stole second. And John McCain cheered him every step of the way.

Casey: Very good speech, again average delivery. I heard Carville on CNN say that the Democrats have some pretty major league talent at the top of their talent pool after Clintons speech (more on that below) but, I must say after Obama and Clinton and (hopefully) Biden, there seems to be a big drop in ability to give a speech. In any event, Casey also had an awesome line:

John McCain calls himself a maverick, but he votes with George Bush more than 90% of the time. That’s not a maverick, that’s a sidekick.

Rendell: Delivered a speech that was pretty "meaty" lots of digs, but I still think he underperformed given his reputation.

Before I get to the big 3, some pleasant surprises:

Dennis Kucinich: wow. he was fired up and ready to go. maybe too much, and, on reflection being surprised by Kucinich is probably normal.

David Patterson: what a surprise. Why this guy had to inherit the NY Gov. office is beyond me.

The "Real People": every one of the folks who came out and told their stories was very good, especially Lilly Leadbetter.

Xavier Becerra: very good.

Rahm Emanuel: I know why he's such a behind the scenes guy, and I expected him to come out and just hammer away but he was underwhelming. I have seen talk here and there that he may be a president/vice president some day. He's got a ways to go.

Deval Patrick: Very well done and delivered although I think it could have been more energizing.

Ok, now for the big 3 speeches:

Mark Warner: Pretty good speech. I was a little apprehensive about him, but he did OK and I am not sure this was a "keynote" worthy speech. But that's OK because the last 2 speeches of the night made up for it.

Brian Schweitzer: Just awesome how he took a speech on energy independence and just fired out the delegates is beyond me. What a character! My favorite dig (no pun intended):

We simply can’t drill our way to energy independence, even if you drilled in all of John McCain’s backyards, including the ones he can’t even remember.

After Schweitzer's speech, I would thought Clinton would have an even harder task than the one she faced, but, I have to agree with the CW (and I am not a Hillary fan) that she hit a grand slam. I watched a lot of her speeches during the primary and have to say this was the best speech I have ever seen her give.

She set the tone right off the bat:

No way, no how, no McCain

And the key quote:

I ran to stand up for all those who have been invisible to their government for eight long years. Those are the reasons I ran for president, and those are the reasons I support Barack Obama for president. I want you -- I want you to ask yourselves: Were you in this campaign just for me, or were you in it for that young Marine and others like him? Were you in it for that mom struggling with cancer while raising her kids? Were you in it for that young boy and his mom surviving on the minimum wage? Were you in it for all the people in this country who feel invisible?

She went after McCain pretty hard:

it makes perfect sense that George Bush and John McCain will be together next week in the Twin Cities, because these days they're awfully hard to tell apart.

And she finished great.

Now, I do wish she had addressed the commander in chief BS that she let loose in the primaries as that is what the rethugs went for after her speech. But overall I don't know what else Obama supporters could have asked for.

So where does that leave us?

Well, first, I wish the hell they would get control of the delegates more. Their constant unruliness during the speeches is annoying and is taking away from the non-prime time speakers. Moreover, even the cable news channels are not showing speeches due to the fact, I suspect, that nobody seems to be paying attention. Every now and then the will stop their constant prognosticating and cut to the podium but only after the delegates have gotten ahold of themselves and start responding to the speakers. You can be sure that the rethugs are going to sit still and silent for 4 hours each day next week and, as a result, a lot of their non prime time speakers are going to get cable news time.

Second, the PUMAs are DOA after Clinton's speech. She has rightfully chastised them. If Obama can't get them, they were never going to be gotten and they need to be written off.

Finally, Day 3 and 4 have been teed up (just as I suspect the Obama campaign had hoped) with Michelle Obama's wonderful speech and Clinton's near pitch perfect unity speech. Biden has to come out and just let loose on McCain and Obama has to give the best speech ever (and given his track record, that is a very very high bar indeed).

DNC 2008: Day 1 Thoughts

2008-08-26T16:53:00.003-04:00

First off some thoughts on day 1 of the Democratic National Convention:

I watched most of the convention on CSPAN yesterday, so I (thankfully) missed most of the talking heads and heard all of the speakers. The big take away for me is this: Michelle Obama's speech was a home run. The best of the night. Ted Kennedy's tribute and speech was very moving and probably should have been bumped later in order for it to be shown on the networks.

As for the rest, as is typical for democrats, the conventioneers were an unruly bunch for nearly everything except the Kennedy and Obama speeches, which took away from some very good speakers. Pelosi's speech was OK as was McCaskill's, I thought Jim Leach's speech was excellent, sadly he is not a great speaker and the refusal of the delegates to shut up hurt him. Jessie Jackson, Jrs. speech was very well done, he was probably the best after Obama and Kennedy.

The big controversy is whether the first night was wasted by not going after McCain more. I have to agree that the delegates are hungry for and need "red meat" attacks, but last night was probably not the night to do it. We will see what tonight holds.

As for tonight, Clinton is the big speaker and she has a lot on the line (as does Obama). Early word is that Mark Warner, the keynoter, will not be going after McCain so the task will fall on Clinton.

Finally some random thoughts:

* Bill Clinton needs to STFU. It has almost come to the point that Obama may have to dis-invite him from speaking. How fast can Gore get to Denver to take his spot?

* The press seems more concerned with the Hillary Dead-Enders than the delegates seem to be.

* Picking Warner as the keynote may have been a mistake. We will see tonight.

* The Obama girls were awesome and I loved the way the corrected their Dad's misstatement of what city he was in.

* Hillary Clinton needs to put an end to this roll call controversy.

* Why the hell can't the networks show the conventions for more than 1 hour a night? You would think they could take 2 weeks every four years.

* The Cable news shows have too many rethugs on. I hope the dems get equal time next week. (and an idea: Biden and Obama should show up at the RNC next week)

Looks like it is Biden

2008-08-23T02:20:00.003-04:00

Well, so much for the text message....

Shortly after midnight on August 23, the news networks, and major newspapers began reporting that Barack Obama asked Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware to be his VP.

Unless this is some brilliant head fake (and the evidence seems to be the following: the secret service showing up at Biden's home, and at least a couple of anonymous democratic officials confirming it as well as statements from the camps of other VP hopefuls that they were told that they had not been picked), it looks like this is the real deal.

As I mentioned the other day, I thought Biden was probably Obama's second pick. I thought he would pick Kathleen Sebelius. I guess not, but I am happy it is Biden. He brings a lot to the table and it is going to be fun watching him tear John McCain up.

Some random thoughts....

* Biden is 65. So clearly he is not going to be President (he would be 74 if Obama/Biden gets 2 terms)
* I hope the story of how the pick was made comes out someday. It has to be a good one.
* Don't be surprised if Biden's son is named/runs for his senate seat (not sure how Delaware would pick Biden's replacement)
* My parents live about 10 minutes from Biden. Hope he doesn't shut down the roads a lot over the next four years (LOL)

Back in the Saddle: 76 Days until E-Day

2008-08-20T10:26:00.002-04:00

As usual for me, posts to this blog have been few and far between. What can I say, life happens. But, as of today, there are 76 days until election day. I am going to try and get at least one post a day from here on out. Hopefully these posts will be more than just a recap of the days news however, for today at least, it will have to be just a summary of where I think the election stands.

So, here goes...

Obviously right now the issue consuming the most attention is who will be Obama's VP. The conventional wisdom is that it is going to be Joe Biden. I am not so convinced.

The thinking behind Biden is that he would help shore up Obama's perceived weakness in national security and be a great attack dog. However, I think Obama is not thinking that way. He has made it clear that he is confident in his ability to handle foreign policy and does not view it as a weakness at all and that the primary criteria for his selection is going to be someone who he can work with, agrees with him on his "new politics" philosophy.

If I had to guess who his pick is going to be I would put my money on Gov. Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas. Picking her fulfills all of the criteria listed above and all the criteria Obama has laid out to the press for his VP.

Now, the Clinton lovers will probably go ballistic over this pick but I view that as an added benefit to picking Sebelius. Obama has made it pretty clear he has bent over backwards to accommodate the Clintons (prime time convention speaking slots, roll call votes, the stupid statement in the party platform about the "18 million cracks in the glass ceiling", changing portions of his health care proposal to reflect the Clinton plan, helping Clinton retire her debt) and, up until now, he has gotten little to show for it (see Bill Clintons statements re: qualification for president, compliments regarding John McCain's environmental record). By picking Sebelius the message to the Clinton dead enders is this: Hey. Here's a qualified women who shares my philosophy. If you really think its Hillary or no one else then you are a bunch of hypocrites and I don't need you. Either get on board the train or not.

Is it a gamble? Yes. Right now the polls show that where Obama is under performing is with democrats (he is getting about 80% of the self-identified democrats in most of the polls I have seen, which is less than Kerry got). If he can bump that up to about 90% of self-identified democrats, he wins the election. Picking a women (even though it is not Hillary) would do two things: attempt to lure some of those dems back into the fold and, given who Sebelius is and her record, make a serious play for the rational wing of the republican party.

So, that's my guess. As to the timing: I would not be surprised if he did not announce until Saturday morning although I think the Obama campaign is open to announcing earlier, depending on the news cycle (for example, how much air time is the new - and most likely flawed - Zogby poll showing McCain with a lead for the first time going to get? If it gets too much, then maybe the VP announcement comes to get it out of the headlines).

Clinton Debt = $21 Million, Just Say No, Obama

2008-05-28T11:28:00.000-04:00

The LA Times is reporting this morning that Clinton is $21 Million in debt. Given the fact that this race is over and Obama has (or soon will) win, there has been alot of speculation that Obama will offer to help Clinton pay down the debt. I say no...

Look, any reasonable observer knows that winning this race was a long shot for Clinton after March 4 and the Obama winning streak. ( see this Chuck Todd post for the breakdown). We also know that Clinton was out of powder (i.e. money $$) at that time. Yet, she still chose to vigorously continue her campaign. That was her right.

Yet, as it became more apparent that her hopes were becoming slimmer as OH, TX, PA, et. al, failed to change the dynamic of the race, she has still (rightly or wrongly) refused to suspend her campaign. She has continued to spend, spend, spend. The result? Mountains of debt and vendors unpaid (although if I were her, I'd tell Mark Penn that he's never going to collect what she owes him).

Now that Obama has won the majority of pledged delegates, all the pundits keep saying is it is all about how Clinton exits the race. All signs point to the fact that she will not get out until after June 3. Again, that's her right. But, how the heck can she justify the spending?

More importantly, how can Obama and his supporters justify helping her pay off this mountain of debt? Speculation is that Clinton is going to position herself to negotiate with Obama that in exchange for her suspending her campaign, Obama will help her pay down this debt. At this point though, unless Clinton is willing to suspend within days, I have to think that Obama has to say no. He cannot justify this to his supporters.

How is Obama going to go to his supporters and ask them to help pay for the debt that was incurred by Clinton after most reasonable people knew her chances were slim to none? Even worse, how can anyone justify paying down the additional debt that is going to be incurred by Clinton to campaign in the June 1 and June 3 states?

Moreover, where the hell were Clinton's financial people? How could they let this happen? I can't believe that they deluded themselves into thinking that it was worth it. I mean, what is the best possibility right now for Clinton? She gets half of MI & FL and says she finished the primary season but still lost? Maybe she gets to influence the health Care plank of the platform and gets some sort of veto power over the VP choice (I take it for granted that the VP will not be Clinton for a lot of reasons, the biggest being that she brings nothing to the ticket that Obama does not already have). Is this worth $21 million plus?

Historically when candidates ran out of money the gracefully exit the race. It is well past time to Clinton to do so on that basis alone. For her to continue now and then have the audacity to come back to Obama in two weeks when it is over and ask him to help with her debt is morally wrong. It is unfair to Obama, his supporters, and democratic chances in November as she will be diverting monies that should rationally go to the presidential campaign and/or down ticket candidates.

Obama has to just say no.

UPDATE: I should have made this clearer in the post originally, Obama cannot give Clinton the $21 million out of his fund raising coffers. What he can do is host raisers for Clinton and/or ask his donors to contribute and/or give Clinton access to his donor DB (which is probably the most coveted political DB in existence today - I am sure down ticket candidates are just salivating at getting access to it). So the real question is whether Obama should do these things on Clinton's behalf. I still say no way.

March 4 Predictions

2008-03-03T20:07:00.004-05:00

Well, I suppose I should post my predictions for tomorrow night's democratic primaries.

Right now the conventional wisdom seems to think that Ohio & Rhode Island will be won by Clinton,Vermont by Obama and Texas as a toss-up. I suppose I could go with the conventional wisdom. The polls certainly support this view. But, I am going to go out on a limb here - mostly because the polls have been wrong.

So here goes, for posterity sake:

Ohio: Obama win by 1%. Counting will go late into the night. Why? I think Ohio is going to be a combination of Wisconsin and Missouri - remember that the networks called Missouri for Clinton, but then retracted and then Obama finally won. I think thats going to be the case here. Now, most polls show Clinton up by an average of 6%, and the NAFTA/Canada flap probably has hurt Obama. Even the Obama campaign seems to have written off Ohio. But I just have a feeling the pollster's models are not taking everything into account. So I'll stick with my pick: Obama by 1%.

Vermont: Obama by 15%. This is pretty much in line with the conventional wisdom.

Rhode Island: Sometime around 8 PM tomorrow night, the networks will call RI for Clinton, noting that she has finally broken Obama's 11 state winning streak. Clinton by 10%

Texas: Its a dead heat right now. There's all kinds of talk about how Clinton might win the popular vote but Obama will win the caucus. Again, I'm going out on a limb: Obama wins the popular vote and the caucus. Obama by 6% in the popular vote. Don't be surprised if we don't know the result until the next day.

So there it is. I predict Obama will end the Clinton campaign tomorrow night. Come Wednesday, we'll start to see the super delegates flock to Obama.

The End or the Beginning of the End?

2008-03-01T22:30:00.001-05:00

I am slowly coming to the realization that we may be heading to the worst possible situation - a fight for the democratic nomination all the way to the convention. We are now 3 days from March 4 and it is looking like the primaries are going to deliver us a split decision. We may well be at the exact same place we are now on March 5th. If we are, this race is a whole new ball game.

So here's the scenarios:

1. Rhode Island: Clinton Win, Vermont: Obama Win, Ohio: narrow Obama win, Texas: Obama win: I put this as the least likely scenario (10% chance) simply because I don't see an Obama win in Ohio.

The most recent polls put Ohio in Clinton's column:

ARG: Clinton 51, Obama 44, Undecided: 4
Zogby (for what it's worth): Clinton:45, Obama: 45, Undecided: 6
Rasmussen: Clinton: 47, Obama:45
Fox/Opinion Dynamics: Clinton: 46, Obama: 38, Undecided: 14
SUSA: Clinton: 50, Obama: 44, Undecided: 3

Now, polls have been all over the place this year, none of them have been very reliable but, it seems apparent that Clinton has solidified her position in Ohio. We'll see how the late breakers are going when polls come out tomorrow and monday, but the Obama camp can't be hopeful. I suspect the Obama campaign saw this in their internals earlier this week when they left Ohio and went back to Texas and Rhode Island (most likely just to try and keep Clinton's Ohio numbers down) before returning to Ohio tonight.

Clinton's base - folks over 65 and folks who make less than 50K/year are clearly in her camp, and there may be a tinge of racism to overcome in Ohio (see also Ed Rendell's comments on Ohio's neighboring state, PA):

If Hillary doesn't get the nomination, this man said, he'd not only vote for but work for McCain, "and I hate McCain."

"Why not Obama?"

"He's too inexperienced."

"And why else?" a woman down the bar asked.

"Because he's black."

The only hope for an Obama win in Ohio is for the Obama GOTV to outperform and, for these <50K Hillary supporters to stay home.

Which brings us to scenario #2....

2. Rhode Island: Clinton Win, Vermont: Obama win, Ohio: Narrow Clinton win (6 pts or less), Texas: Obama win: I put this as the most likely scenario (50%).

But, there does seem to be some concern here too. Obama appeared to be pulling ahead in Texas the middle of this past week, but the most recent polls seem to show a Clinton come-back:

ARG: Obama:47, Clinton: 47, Undecided: 4
Zogby (again, for what its worth): Obama: 45, Clinton: 43, Undecided: 8
Rasmussen: Obama: 48, Clinton: 44, Undecided: 8
SUSA: Obama: 49, Clinton: 45, Undecided: 3

it looks like Obama has the upper hand in Texas, but as this comment at myDD states, it looks like, over the past couple of days, Clinton's base (<50K/year, >65, Hispanic) is coming home to her at the end.

Which brings us to scenario #3...

3. Rhode Island: Clinton Win, Vermont: Obama win, Ohio: Narrow Clinton win (6 pts or less), Texas: Clinton popular vote win, delegate loss. I rank this as a possible outcome Tuesday (30%) and it is clear that this is what the Clinton camp is hoping for.

I'll address this scenario in more detail below, but lets get on with the remaining possibilities for now...

4: Rhode Island: Clinton win, Vermont: Obama win, Ohio: Narrow Clinton win (6 pts or less), Texas: Clinton win (popular vote and delegates). Obviously this is the Clinton dream scenario but I think its unlikely (5%).

Now there are some other variations on these scenarios: an Obama win in Rhode Island, big (>8%) wins for Obama in Texas and Ohio, big (>8%) wins for Clinton in Texas and Ohio, but each is very unlikely (1-2% chance).

So how does this nomination play out given these scenarios?

Scenario #1: If Obama wins Ohio & Texas, no matter what the margin, Clinton is done. She will be forced to suspend her campaign within days, if she does not do it Tuesday night. The Super Delegates will break for Obama in droves, headlined by Edwards, Richardson and possibly even Gore. Obama will then be free to begin the campaign for the general election as he wraps up the nomination in WV, NC, PA et. al.

Now, I have seen several comments about how it would be better for Obama if Clinton were to stay in so that Obama can have the chance to build up his organization in these post-March 4 states. I say hogwash. The sooner this ends, the better for the nominee. I would argue that the reason Obama seems to be slipping in Texas the past couple of days is because he has had to wage a two front campaign the past 10 days: one against Clinton and one against McCain. If Obama has to do this from now until Puerto Rico, he will be wounded for the general election. The sooner he can take over the reigns of the party, the better.

Scenario #2: This is the tough one. Clearly Obama has broken the Clinton firewall. But, the Clinton campaign has been laying the ground work to continue on if this is the scenario that comes to pass. It seems clear that they are going to argue that the Texas rules (primary & caucus) are unfair, and possibly file a (BS) lawsuit to try and put the Texas results into question. Clinton will argue that the goalposts have to moved again - to Pennsylvania on April 22, and we will be right back where we are now - Obama ahead in states, popular vote & delegates and Clinton somehow still hanging on waiting for something to turn the race her way. Between March 4 and April 22, Obama should be expected to win Wyoming (12 delegates) on March 8 and Mississippi (33 delegates) on March 11 so there is the possibility that Obama blow-outs in those states could put the pressure on Clinton to drop out on March 12, but, given the Clinton campaign's penchant for dismissing caucuses and red-state wins, this is unlikely.

With this in mind, if scenario #2 is what we end up with on Tuesday, there will need to be a game-changer to put the pressure on Clinton : Edwards or Gore endorsement, party leaders sitting her down and telling her to suspend etc, or we are waiting until PA. If the race goes to PA, Obama has to win PA or keep it close the argue that he's won the most delegates.

Scenario #3: If this happens, its off to PA. I don't think Obama would have the moral authority to argue that Clinton should suspend, even though there is still no realistic way she can catch him in delegates. We'll have to see what the PA results show - PA becomes a must win for Obama. Under this scenario I suspect the nomination goes all the way to the convention.

Scenario #4: Again, off to PA. I suspect this is the game changer scenario for Clinton. All of her arguments concerning Michigan and Florida will have to be addressed and PA will probably be the deciding contest, with the winner being the nominee.

So, here's where I think we are at:

10% chance the race ends Tuesday night.
50% chance the race ends sometime between March 4 and March 12
30% chance the race goes all the way to the convention
10% chance the race ends April 22.

Waiting for the Damn to Break: It's Obama's to Loose

2008-02-11T00:02:00.000-05:00

Digby's Got it:

Personally, I don't think we'll have a tie much longer. It's hard to see how either candidate can unify the country if they can't demonstrate that they can unify the Democratic Party. Something has to break and I suspect voters will be the ones to do it.

That's the way I see it too. We are heading for a showdown March 4th that will decide this election.

Get ready folks, the dam is going to break. Who gets washed away is still unknown, but someone will. Lets set the scene:

1. Right now, as everyone knows, Obama has had a hell of a weekend - blow out wins everywhere (and margin of victory is very important now as I will argue below) and a Grammy to boot.

2. More bad news for the Clinton camp as they shake up their campaign. This is actually a good time to do it - better now than after the beltway primary, which is probably going Obama's way. That way there won't be weeks of talking about how shaken the Clinton campaign is. Get it over now, suffer the news cycle until Tuesday night when the narrative will change.

3. Mini Tuesday: the Potomac / beltway primary: MD, VA & DC. Most likely going 3-0 for Obama but there are some upsides for Clinton:

(a) Win 1 state - If Clinton can pull a rabbit out of the hat and win at least 1 state, with some good "spin", she's probably back in the driver's seat for March 4.

(b) I think (a) is unlikely but I do think this is essential - Clinton cannot loose 59-39 or 60-40 like she has this weekend. She has to keep the margin of victory within 10 points in at least 2 of the 3 states. Why? Because after this weekend people are going to start to notice how Obama has really been blowing her out. There's starting to be a pattern to this and if it continues, it will be discussed over and over in the Media.

4. The Big MO: so far this election nobody seems to be able to keep the MO. But if Obama goes 8-0 this week, all basically 59-39 or better, he's probably got it and that will run right into ...

5. Feb 19 WI & HI. Right now, these are probably narrow Obama wins but with MO, Obama could run off another couple of 59-39 blowouts. It will be interesting to see after Tuesday what the Clinton campaign does - do they put all the eggs in the basket and go to TX & OH or do they try and compete in WI to hope for a win to stop momentum? Also, look and see if Obama does the unthinkable and makes a flyout to HI. Even though HI should be a "home state" for Obama, Clinton does have some advantages there (Inouye endorsement, large Asian population, large senior population). If you see Obama visiting is old HI haunts then we'll know that his internal polls show him in a tight race with Clinton in HI or he doesn't have the blow out and wants to try and run up the numbers.

and now...

Dam #1: March 4.

OH & TX will be incredibly important. They are essentially the ball game now. Obama wins both - Clinton gets a visit from the party elders telling her to drop out. Obama wins one, Clinton gets one - depending on how big the margins of victory are in TX & OH it could go either way (either Clinton starts getting pressure to drop out or she gets to go to Dam #2). Clinton gets both - we go to Dam #2.

Dam #2: PA - April 22. This is it. This is where it ends. If we get here whoever looses will be told to drop out for party unity.

Right now, I see dam #2 as only a remote possibility. I suspect that the voters are going to see the Obama's 8-0 run, begin to let the Clinton campaign troubles start to seep into their consciousness and give Obama some more 59-39 blow outs in Feb 19. All of this will then snowball, along with what I expect to be MASSIVE media buys in TX & OH by Obama. He'll surf this wave of MO for a win in OH and a win in TX. And that will be it. The voters will have effectively ended it.

Yes, I know its a long time between now and then and anything can happen. I also know there's a lot of assumptions to this scenario, but like I said, Digby's right - the voters are going to decide this soon. I think that means that the soft Clinton supporters are going to start moving.

Now, this may just be wishful hoping on my part but if we do get to the "Thermonuclear Option" where we go all the way to Puerto Rico with both campaigns and no clear leader and it becomes apparent that super delegates are going to decide the nominee at the convention, I propose that instead of pressuring them to pick a side now, they take the following pledge:

As a super delegate I pledge to support with my super delegate vote at the convention:
a. If I am an elected official, either the winner of my State's primary or caucus or my congressional district or..
b. The person who has the pledged delegate lead after the last primary or caucus.
If I am not an elected official, I will support with my super delegate vote at the convention, the person who has the pledged delegate lead after the last primary or caucus.
The term pledged delegate lead means that person who has a majority of pledged delegates (50% of the assigned delegates +1) under the DNC rules.

While I am a super delegate, until the last primary or caucus, I am free to support any candidate in any manner except I may not imply in any manner that I will promise my super delegate vote at the convention to that candidate of he or she does not have the pledged delegate lead overall, in my state or in my congressional district.

Mapping the Nomination From Here...

2008-02-10T00:47:00.000-05:00

Time to start wondering how this will all end.

Maybe its a bit premature, but I think this will be relevant come Tuesday night.

As I see it, TX and OH could end this campaign. I see two issues to end it:

1. Will Obama win TX & OH?

2. Will Clinton see the writing on the wall and bow out if he does?

So, as I see it, counting only pledged (not super) delegates, Obama is ahead:

Obama: 1,012
Clinton: 940

Tomorrow is Maine so lets assume, a split 12 to 12
which brings us to:

O: 1,024
C: 952

Next week we have the Beltway Primary. Assume this shakes out for Obama:

DC: O 11, C 4
MD: O 40, C 30
VA: O 47, C 36

After Tuesday we could be at:

O: 1122
C: 1022

On the 19th, we add in HI and WI. HI is a home state for Obama so lets assume that goes for him 13 to 7, and give Clinton the benefit of the doubt in WI and split the delegates 37-37. Then we have:

O: 1172
C: 1066

Now, assume Obama wins TX & OH, say 53-47. Lets assign delegates here for our scenario:

OH: O 73 C 68
TX: O 101 C 92
and RI and VT:
RI: O 12 C 9
VT O 8 C 7

At this point we are at:

O: 1366
C: 1242

Now, assuming this happens, Obama now has the pledged delegate lead and has run the table on Clinton since Super Tuesday. Here are my questions:

1. Is it over? Is Obama the presumptive nominee? Remember there are still states to vote - they are:

State Date Delegates
WI 3/8 12
Miss 3/11 33
PA 4/22 158
Guam 5/4 4
Indiana 5/6 72
NC 5/6 115
WVA 5/13 28
KY 5/20 51
OR 5/20 52
MT 6/3 16
SD 6/3 15
PR 6/7 55

So there's still 611 delegates out, but even if it went 70-30 for either candidate, nobody is gonna get the majority needed to guarantee the nomination. I guess what I am asking is this: do democrats come together at this point and say to Clinton, you lost everything since Super Tuesday, you lost TX & OH, time to hang it up?

2. If the answer to #1 is yes, should she drop out? I'm very interested to hear from Clinton supporters here. BTW, please don't argue how FL & MI count - lets not get into that right now. If you want to argue FL & MI, they you have to provide a solution to the problem of how to count them and be fair to Obama.

3. So if the consensus is she should drop out if she looses FL & TX, then here's my final question - Do you think she will do it? Is it in her character to bow out gracefully or will she fight to the bitter end?

So those are my questions.

Just to get it started, I think if Obama runs the table through March 4, pressure must be brought to bear on Clinton to drop out. Personally I don't think she will and she'll fight to the bitter end. On the other hand, if Clinton can take one of either OH or TX, I think she's earned the right to continue until at least PA. If she wins that, she's earned the right to fight on (either until the end or until it becomes obvious she can't win the overall pledged delegate count).

Real Delegate Count: Obama 1,012 Clinton 940

2008-02-09T12:28:00.000-05:00

This is pledged delegates only, no supers.

This includes projections for those delegates that have not yet been officially awarded from super Tuesday.

Forget super delegates for now, forget Florida and Michigan for now. The only number that matters is pledged delegates.

Obama Total: 1,012
Clinton Total: 940

Yes, these numbers are the same as the Obama campaign but, when I run them on my spreadsheet, this is what I get too. All campaigns will spin but Obama's has been pretty straight up with delegate counts from day one (they were right on Nevada going 50-50 and they are correctly assigning New Mexico 50-50 even though there's no final count).

CNN's numbers are just stupid. They include super-delegates and they have yet to assign a bunch of delegates from super Tuesday.

California Delegate Math Deciphered

2008-02-06T03:19:00.000-05:00

So, there's lots of confusion how you count delegates in California.

I'll take a shot at trying to start off the explanation. Hopefully someone can do the math....

CA has 53 congressional districts.

In 21 on those there are an odd number of delegates to win.

So, in the districts with an even number of delegates available, Clinton and Obama will split them (i.e if 4 are available, Clinton gets 2 and Obama gets 2). However, if one candidate gets more than 62.5% in an even number district, then they can "win" one of the other candidates delegates and thus "win" that district. Last I checked, (3am), Clinton is only up by 62.5% in a couple of congressional districts. So, in 30 or so districts, Obama and Clinton split the available delegates

Here's a link to all the districts in CA: CA Congressional District results

Here's a link that lists how may delegates each district gets: delegates

So, its only in the remaining 21 where an odd number is available that Clinton or Obama can win and extra delegate.

I suspect Obama's folks have done the math and know that no matter what, they end the night + or - 10 or so delegates (they just sent an email that they have won the most delegates tonight so maybe the did the math and they are up a few delegates).

Now, Clinton keeps adding her Super Delegates to her totals. Personally, I think thats BS since supers can change their mind at any time. I think the important number right now is how many delegates were won in the election. If this race looks like its going to the convention then supers come into play.

Someone Please Save Universal Music From Itself!

2007-11-28T07:34:00.000-05:00

Seth Mnookin (who also wrote an excellent book on the Red Sox) has an interview in Wired with Doug Morris, CEO of Universal Music. The interview is a must read. Its clear that Morris absolutely hates his customers:

Morris goes on to rail against criminal-minded college students and
low-life punks who steal the music that his artists work so hard to
create. He admits to being fairly ignorant about technology and insists
that his job is to nurture the creative side of the business — work
that's being threatened by all of this other nonsense.
...
He wants to wring every dollar he can out of anyone who goes anywhere
near his catalog. Morris has never accepted the digital world's ruling
ethos that it's better to follow the smartest long-term strategy, even
if it means near-term losses. As far as he's concerned, do that and
someone, somewhere, is taking advantage of you. Morris wants to be paid
now, not in some nebulous future. And if there's one thing he knows how
to do, it's use the size of his company to get his way.

and despises Steve Jobs and Apple:

"We were just grateful that someone was selling online. The problem is,
he became a gatekeeper. We make a lot of money from him, and suddenly
you're wearing golden handcuffs. We would hate to give up that income."

And Morris is still deluding himself about music subscriptions:

Total Music subscription would come pre-installed on devices like
the Zune, the Sony PlayStation, or a mobile phone. Universal is well
aware of the difficulty of convincing consumers to pay for music
subscriptions, so Morris wants the device makers to pony up the cash
themselves, either by shelling out for a six-month introductory offer
or by assuming the cost forever. This would be money well spent, Morris
argues, because it would help the Microsofts of the world eat into the
iPod's market share. He has already hammered out preliminary agreements
with Warner and Sony BMG and has met with executives at Microsoft and
several wireless carriers. If Morris is able to make Total Music a
reality, he will once again have succeeded in bending the industry to
his will — in this case, by using the combined catalogs of the major
labels to help establish a true competitor to the iPod. After all, why
buy an iPod if a Zune will give you songs for free?

Unfortunately, Total Music will almost certainly require some form
of DRM, which in the end will perpetuate the interoperability problem.
Morris likely doesn't care. He is more committed to Total Music — or
any other plan that allows protection — than he is to a future where
music can truly be played across any platform, at any time. "Our
strategy is to have the people who create great music be paid
properly," he says. "We need to protect the music. I know that."

I guess this is why Rick Rubin (Morris' cohead of Columbia Records) has drunk the cool-aid on music subscriptions. The problem is that people do not want to subscribe to music - they want to own it.

I mean doesn't anybody at Universal get it? Where are the stockholders? Is this guy so powerful that he can run his company into the ground? I think Mnookin concludes that yes, Morris is that powerful and implies that if the "Total Music" initiative fails and/or iTunes climbs the last hurdle:

This year, 22 percent of all music sold in the US will move
through iTunes. "If iTunes gets up to 40 or 50 percent, they'll have
too much power for anyone else to enter the business," says James
McQuivey, who analyzes the digital music industry for Forrester
Research.

that he very well may ruin Universal.

Now, trying to unseat the iPod is not a bad business strategy but I think that everything known about consumers and how they want to purchase music says subscriptions are a dead end. Every subscription service has failed or is failing. What that tells me is that the wrong guy is running Universal:

"He wasn't prepared for a business that was going to be so totally
disrupted by technology," says a longtime industry insider who has
worked with Morris. "He just doesn't have that kind of mind."

Universal needs someone who recognizes that technology has transformed the music business and is willing to embrace this. Someone who can take the world's largest music label and get it on the path to the future and not down some dead end to protect short term profits. Someone with a lot of money on hand to take over Universal - say 15 or so billion dollars.

Until that happens, all I can say is ugh! - Will someone please save the music business from itself?

Charles Starrett at iLounge has written an excellent editorial on the growing "War on iTunes" being initiated by Universal. I urge everyone to read it.

The Big List of iPhone Tips and Tricks

2007-11-27T08:02:00.000-05:00

I've been collecting iPhone Tips and Tricks for some time now. The list has gotten large enough that I thought I'd publish it. Some of these are pretty good, some may not be - YMMV. For ease of use, I've also published this list as a standalone web page. If you have any not listed here, please post them below and I'll add them to the iPhone Tips web page.

So, in no particular order....

Punctuation/Keyboard Tips

hit the space bar twice, you get a period.
Remember
that the iPhone does not register a key press until you release your
finger from the screen. With that in mind, you can quickly get any
punctuation mark by doing the following, all in one motion: Touch the
“.?123” key, but don’t lift your finger as the punctuation layout
appears then slide your finger a half inch onto the period or comma
key, and release. The ABC layout returns automatically. You’ve typed a
period or a comma or any of the punctuation symbols with one finger.
To type all in Caps, use the CAPS LOCK feature, make sure it is enabled in the General
Settings. To use it, simply double-tap on the shift key. The shift key
will turn blue.
If you are writing something and the iPhone flags a word as misspelled
that you know is not misspelled, cancel the correction 3 times and the
word will be put into the dictionary.

Double- Tapping

In
Photos, Google Maps, and Safari (the Web browser), double-tapping zooms
in on whatever you tap, magnifying it by a factor of two.
In
the same programs, as well as Mail, double-tapping means, “restore to
original size” after you’ve zoomed in. (Weirdly, in Google Maps, you
use a different gesture to zoom out: tap once with two fingers. That
gesture appears nowhere else on the iPhone.)
When you’re watching a video, double-tapping eliminates or restores letterbox bars.
If you double tap a video while it is playing, you will magnify the image so that it fills the entire screen.

Headset "Clicker"

Pinch once to answer an incoming phone call.
Pinch
for a couple seconds to dump the call to voicemail. (You can also
double-tap the Sleep/Wake switch on top of the iPhone to send the call
to voicemail.)
During music or video playback, pinch once to pause the music; pinch again to resume playback.
During music playback, double-pinch to skip to the next song.
If you aren't using iPod at all and want some music, you can start up iPod mode
with a double-squeeze then a single squeeze to start the music
playing. It will automatically start playing the first song in your
Songs list, and work it's way through.

Customizing the iPod Buttons

In
the iPod tap the More button, and then tap the Edit button (upper-left
corner). Drag an icon from the top half of the screen downward,
directly onto the existing icon you want to replace. It lights up to
show the success of your drag. When you release your finger, you’ll
see that the new icon has replaced the old one. Tap Done in the
upper-right corner.

Misc.

The iPhone will automatically capitalize the first letter of a new sentence, so don't bother doing it yourself.
Don’t put apostrophes in contractions - iPhone will do it automatically.
If you have multiple apps open like Safari, iPod, Youtube, stocks
etc., when you press Home it does NOT actually clear or
close apps., and this may affect battery usage. To
actually close (or Quit) an application, HOLD the Home button for about
4-8 seconds while in the application.

Reset

Press and hold the Home button for six seconds to force-quit a program that seems to be stuck.
If
the entire iPhone locks up press and hold both the Home button and the
Sleep/Wake switch for eight seconds. The screen go black, and then the
Apple logo appears as the iPhone reboots.

Phone

To
stop an incoming call from ringing, press the sleep / wake button. To
send the call immediately to VoiceMail, press the sleep / wake button
twice.
If you select a photo for a contact from the iPhone, the selected photo is shown full screen for the caller ID.
If a contacts photo is transferred with the contact's info from the
Address Book, the contact's photo is shown as a thumbnail for the caller ID.
Keeping the favorites screen open allows you to unlock the screen then dial with three motions.
The home button can be used to access unlocking instead of sleep wake.

Email

To delete email by just swiping left to right on the email in the list and press the delete button that pops up on the right.
If you want to save a message you’re working on so you can come back to
it later, tap Cancel. Instead of deleting the message immediately, Mail
pops up a dialog asking you to Save, Don’t Save, or Cancel. Tap Save
and the message is placed in your Drafts folder. If your account
doesn’t currently have a Drafts folder, Mail will create one.

Google Maps

Typing
in the three letter airport code while in maps will bring the airport
up on the map. So if you are trying to view a map of central NJ, Typing
EWR will bring up the Newark airport. It's relatively quick to zoom
out, recenter over New York, and zoom in again. It seems to recognize
all primary and secondary US airports and many overseas airports as
well. Here's a Link to find airport codes.
Tapping on the address in your contacts opens it up in Google maps.
You
can send yourself a link (via email) to a map from Google Maps online -
when you click on that link it will open in Google Maps (not Safari).
If you have a bunch of locations you want to save send email links and
save them in an email folder.

Safari

When
you've scrolled down to the bottom of a page, and you want to go back
to the top- just tap on the top bar of the phone (where "AT&T" and
the time are) and the page jumps right back up to the beginning.
If you want to scroll inside text area form fields and scrollable areas in a page, use two fingers to scroll.
To email a page to someone tap on the address bar. The Share button on the top left will create a message for you.
Page
down. When not using a zoomed-in display, double-tap towards the bottom
of the screen. The page will re-center around your tap.
Zoom
onto a single picture. Double-tapping images in Safari zooms them to
fit your iPhone display. If the picture is linked to a URL, this can
prove a little tricky but it works great for non-linked images.
Double-tap again to return to the unzoomed display.
Zoom a
column. You can zoom text columns as well as pictures. Double-tap on
the column to fit it to the display. Double-tap again to return out of
the zoom. Not only does Safari zoom block-quoted text independently of
regular text but if you move your finger after the first
double-tap-to-fit, it interprets the next double-tap as a re-center
page command rather than a return-to-previous-zoom.
Stopping a
scroll. After flicking a page to get it to scroll, you can tap the page
at any time to stop that movement. Don't forget, you can also manually
drag the screen display to reset the part you're viewing.
Manual
zoom. To zoom into a Safari page, put your thumb and forefinger on the
screen and move them apart. To zoom out, pinch the fingers together
after starting with them apart.
Examining the URL. To peek at a
link's destination, touch and hold the link for a few seconds. You can
also do this with images to see if they are linked. If a link appears
and you don't want to activate it, just slide your finger away until
the destination text disappears.
Google Videos. Point your
iPhone browser to a video on google video and choose download for
iPod/PSP and you can watch it right there in safari.
Bookmarks:
Create a separate folder / section for all your iPhone web sites. This
makes is easy to locate them while browsing the we on your iPhone.
RSS. If your favorite 'news' sites offer an RSS feed, bookmark and use that
on your iPhone (I have an "all RSS" bookmark folder to collect them). This can make browsing,
even while on EDGE much faster.
You can get on the internet during a call! You can only do this if your
connected to a WIFI network (it wont work via edge), just hit the home
key and click on Safari. Now your surfing while talking! The person on
the other end can't hear the keyboard clicks either!

Address Book

Create several subgroups, this can speed up the location of a contact given the lack of an actual search function.

Notes Hack

Since
the Notes cannot be manipulated on the desktop (yet), you can hack your
way aound this to have notes that can be modified on your desktop: (1)
create a new address book group called 'Notes'; (2) create a dummy
address and give it company name "Notes" (3) populate the "Note" field
of this contact entry with plain text This will now sync between
multiple Macs/PCs and always be available on
iPhone, even when it is offline. Simply look in the address group Notes
for these items - not ideal but it works

Clock

When the alarm wakes you up in the morning, touching the
sleep/wake button will "snooze" and sliding the wake up slider will
turn off the alarm.

Camera

To get better picture, press and hold the
shutter button. As long as you are holding the button, you can set up
the picture. When you release the button, the picture will be taken.

Stocks

If you touch the green/red boxes outlining the +/- movement of the stocks, it changes to displaying the %.

Weather

Click on the yahoo link on the bottom left and safari will launch into Yahoo city guide.

iPhoto (Mac Application)

The phone shows up in iPhoto by default. To disable this, turn off in image capture
You can use 'Camera is not Apple iPhone' in a smart playlist
A contacts picture folder /album is a good idea
A wallpaper folder / album is a good idea - Create an Album (folder) called iPhone Wallpaper and load up your
favorite 320x480 wallpapers. This makes it very easy to pick a new
wallpaper on your iPhone.

iPhone Development

2007-11-26T10:07:00.000-05:00

The iPhone is running a streamlined version of Mac OS X. It uses a Mach kernel, BSD Unix, Cocoa frameworks,
Mac OS X application bundles, and other portions of the Mac operating system.

The iPhone has 8192 MB (8 GB) of Flash RAM
installed. OS X and the iPhone default applications take up about 700 MB . The iPhone also has 128 MB of system RAM used by the running applications.

Sitting above the Mach kernel is the BSD layer with the following directory structure:

/bin
    Contains: launchctl, ln, mkdir, mv, rm, cat, expr
/sbin
    Contains: fsck, fsck_hfs, fstyp, fstyp_hfs, mount, mount_hfs, kextload, launchd
/etc
    Contains: bluetool, racoon, fstab, master.passwd, passwd, ttys, ppp, services, group, hosts, networks
/var/log
    contains: flat files
/usr
    /bin
       contains: ditto, sed
    /lib
       contains: libcrypto, libgcc, libobjc, libsqulite, libstdc++, libz
    /local
       contains:
    /sbin
       contains: fdisk
/Applications
       contains:
/Library
       contains:
/System
    /Library
       /CoreServices
          contains: SpringBoard, mDNSResponder
       /Frameworks
          contains: List of iPhone Frameworks:

- AddressBook
- AddressBookUI
- AppSupport
- BluetoothManager
- Calendar
- Camera
- CFNetwork
- Celestial
- CoreAudio
- CoreFoundation
- CoreGraphics
- CoreSurface
- CoreTelephony
- CoreVideo
- DeviceLink
- Foundation
- GraphicsServices
- GMM
- IAP
- IOKit
- IOMobileFramebuffer
- ITSync
- JavaScriptCore
- LayerKit
- MBX2D
- MBXConnect
- MeCCA
- Message
- MessageUI
- MobileBluetooth
- MobileMusicPlayer
- MoviePlayerUI
- MultitouchSupport
- MusicLibrary
- OpenGLES
- PhotoLibrary
- Preferences
- Security
- System
- SystemConfiguration
- TelephonyUI
- UIKit
- URLify
- WebCore
- WebKit

iPhone News Beat: November 26, 2007

2007-11-26T05:00:00.000-05:00

Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving. I need another four days off though. Here's the iPhone News Roundup for November 26, 2007:

Fortune interviews Greg Joswiak, Apple's Mr. iPod/iPhone. He's gives some hints about the iPhone SDK.

Slow UK iPhone Sales?

iTunes can unlock German iPhones - for 999 Euros ($1473 dollars - my how the dollar has fallen!).

Steve has the Reality Distortion Field, Apple Stores have their own gravitational field.

3 Days before launch, Orange reveals iPhone service plans.

iPhone UK reception issues.

Black Friday Deals

2007-11-21T13:06:00.000-05:00

Tomorrow being Thanksgiving, I probably won't be posting until Friday. But, I'm keeping track of the Black Friday Deals. I'll update this entry as new deals become available.

Microsoft Office Deal

If you need Microsoft Office for Mac, then Friday is the day to buy. Here's the deal: Buy any copy of Office 2004 (including the student and teacher edition) and get a $100 rebate. Then:

For $6.99, when Office 2008 is released, Microsoft will send you Office 2008 Special Media Edition."

Microsoft already offers the Special Media Edition upgrade. The $100 rebate is new and available for only the one day.

What makes the deal sweet and cheap is its applicability to Office 2004 Student and Teacher Edition. According to NPD, the Office student version accounts for most copies of the productivity suite sold at retail. However, there is no upgrade option to other Office versions. For 2008, the Student version's Entourage—the Mac equivalent to Outlook—will not support Exchange Server. The offer creates a cheap upgrade path for Mac users looking at getting Office now and don't want to spend big bucks.

Apple Store Deals

No specific info yet, but from past Black Fridays you can expect some really tempting discounts on software, dot mac (I think they sold it for $20 bucks one year), iPods and accessories and Macs. As soon as I hear, I'll post it.

Apple Online Deals

Amazon Deals

Amazon's got their own special section of Amazon.com for Black Friday Deals.

Other

TBD...

The iPhone Killer

2007-11-21T09:29:00.001-05:00

It seems every day there is talk of "the iPhone killer" coming soon. Today's entry in the iPhone Killer sweepstakes is the Verizon Voyager. The Voyager, made by LG, sells for $299 and has a touch screen and a flip open keyboard and tries to copy the iPhone's UI. Here's a review (conclusion: not an iPhone Killer), and another (conclusion: best Verizon phone). There's also talk that the RIM 9000 series, coming next year (pic?), is out to kill the iPhone. And of course, there was the much rumored Google Phone that then failed to live up to the hype. The supposed iPhone killer list goes on: there's a linux contender, handset maker HTC's entry, samsung's entry, Nokia's got one too. But nobody seems to be asking the right questions - if the iPhone can be "killed" how can it be done?

It seems strange to me that there even needs to be an "iPhone Killer". I mean, my guesstimate based on Apple's latest iPhone sales numbers is that there have been about 2 to 2.5 million iPhones sold to date (based on Apple's released numbers and a guess factoring in approximate daily sales and the European release of the iPhone). That's a drop in the bucket compared to the total number of cell phones sold (38 million in the U.S. last quarter alone) since the iPhone was released. Even if you only compare the iPhone to other high end "smart" phones, the iPhone has 27% of the smart phone market but its not yet in a dominant position based on sales. So why would you need to have an iPhone killer? two words: mind share. The iPhone has simply come in and transformed the consumer mind share about what a smart phone should be.

Now, without disclosing details regarding my "day job", I get to spend a lot of time playing with many models of smart phones - including some of the "iPhone Killers" mentioned above, some that are not even available in the U.S., and a few that are not available anywhere yet. Some are very cool. But when you compare them to the iPhone in my pocket, they pretty much all suck. Most are like small bricks - they are heavy, boxy and clunky - nothing with the sleek lines and minimalist feel of the iPhone. Even if they have a nice design, they are generally running an operating system that just kills the user experience - Linux, Symbian, RIM or Microsoft (Microsoft is the worst of the bunch. It takes several "clicks" to get even the most basic things done. Don't even get me started about RIM - an OS only a network administrator could love).

That is the first, most basic, reason there will not be an iPhone Killer anytime soon. The other Mobile OS and UI designs are just not ready to compete. Apple's OS X base is several light years ahead of everything else and the IPhone "noun" UI is just perfect for the touch interface. Of course, the iPhone has its flaws too - it desperately needs voice dialing and/or a better way for hands free use on the phone side, the iPod "scrubber" needs a better UI, it needs "disc mode" like all the other iPods have - just to mention a few of my pet peeves. But here's the thing - all of those things can be fixed with a software update when Apple works them out or by 3rd party developers when they get the SDK in February 2008. If you have a crappy OS, then no amount of tinkering is going to be able to fix that.

That's the beauty of the OS X base - Apple has its own experience on the desktop side to draw from as well as all of its 3rd party developers. The iPhone is just an extension of the Mac ecosystem - a reservoir that Symbian or RIM can't tap into. Microsoft can't, to a large extent, make this claim either, given its specialized - and sometimes incompatible - flavor of windows for smart phones and PDAs. Linux, well, is Linux - theoretically I suppose its part of the "Linux ecosystem" - if one even exists - but Linux is just not a player yet as there are very few Linux smart phones right now. Despite my dismissal of Android, Google has the right idea to go after the mobile OS market instead of releasing an actual phone because that's the key advantage the iPhone has.

The other major advantage Apple has is that it is "Apple, the brand" and all that entails. If Motorola introduced a phone with the exact same feature set as the iPhone a year ago, they would not have gotten the same amount and quality of attention that Apple did. I don't see how the maker of any "iPhone Killer" can get around that anytime soon.

The final major advantage is the iPod. There's no doubt that Apple is a monopoly in the digital music business and is not going to be caught there anytime soon. Apple's video business is also up and coming. Until someone can kills iTunes, they are probably not going to "kill" the iPhone. That's why I have to laugh every time a supposed "iPhone killer" comes up with a phone tied to some minor "music store" or to the cell carriers ridiculously expensive "media store". Please stop (and I am looking at you Verizon) the madness - iTunes has won.

Everything else is just features - screen size, touch screen, wifi, bluetooth, the webkit based safari web browser (and don't underestimate the iPhone's advantage here even though other manufactures can and do use webkit. The web browsing experience on the iPhone is better that everything, and I mean everything, else right now). The iPhone killers keep focusing on features and fail to realize that to "kill" the iPhone, features are the least important thing to concentrate on. To paraphrase James Carville - its the OS stupid. Until somebody can come up with an OS that rivals OS X, there will not be an iPhone killer anytime soon.

The iPhone Killer

2007-11-21T09:29:00.000-05:00

Can Amazon Fire Up eBooks by Kindling?

2007-11-21T08:02:00.000-05:00

Amazon debuted the kindle on Monday. Engadget has a good photo gallery of the device.
The kindle will let users read books ($9.99), Magazines ($1.99/month), Newspapers (varies from $5.99-$14.99/month), Blogs ($0.99-$1.99), your own files ($0.10 each), RSS feeds ($1 per feed). Not withstanding the potential monthly fee nightmare, The Kindle is a tempting little device. But how tempting can it be at $399? That's a lot of money for the device and then you have to buy the books, newspapers, blogs.

Plus, it looks like the Kindle got hit with the ugly stick. I get the fact that they wanted it to "feel" like a paperback in your hand but, ugh!, the white-beige color scheme is 1980's retro - but in a bad way.

Now, I read a ton of books in a year. And, in the past, I had eBooks on my Palm Pilot and enjoyed the fact that I could carry several books in my pocket that were available to me whenever I had a spare moment. But, when I ditched the Palm, I did not feel some great loss because I didn't have my eBooks anymore. Its not as if you can read and walk at the same time or read and drive like you can with music. And that's the problem I think the Kindle has got. There just isn't a longing to have books available on demand. Not to mention the fact that the paper book is pretty well perfected after about 600 years.

So, although I like the idea, I don't think Amazon has got "it" with the Kindle. The high cost of the device, the "nickel and dime" monthly costs, the fact that there just isn't a clamor for eBooks and the fact that the alternative is damn near perfect tells me that Kindle is a dud. I think the best that Amazon can hope for is to start changing the environment for eBooks by getting people to want them. If they can do that then maybe Kindle version 2 or version 3 will take off. Until then, I just don't see it.

iPhone News Beat: November 21, 2007

2007-11-21T07:46:00.000-05:00

Ok. So I'm a day late. Yesterday was a slow news day anyway.

Take off the tin foil, cool the jets, stop the hate, the iPhone doesn't send IMEI information.

German Court says iPhone has to be sold without a contract in Germany.

Is the German Court's ruling a good thing?

In the Duh department - Apple has a way to unlock the iPhone.

No real news here but an interesting read: iPhone/iPod accessory makers have to be quick to react.

Most unlocked iPhones end up in China.

Kindle needs to be the iPhone of Books, not the iPod of Books.

More iTunes Movie Rental evidence.

Finally, don't forget that Amazon's got some Black Friday Deals. Save yourself an early wake-up and shop from home this Friday.

Digital TV Shorts

2007-11-20T11:15:00.000-05:00

NYT

iPhone News Beat: Nov. 19, 2007

2007-11-19T05:47:00.000-05:00

Its snowing in Princeton, New Jersey so, here's the wintery mix edition iPhone News:

Looks like I was right about Apple's no cash policy for iPhones. At least Michael Flynn agrees (with more research).

Kindle eBook Reader vs. iPhone.

Is the Kindle the last shot for eBooks?

Kindle vs. iPhone again.

Today must be the eBook/eReader day. Zinio has released free magazines on the iPhone -Macworld, GQ, Mens Health, Playboy (no pictorials), Popular Mechanics to name a few. Here's the iPhone Link.

Good review of Twitter iPhone Clients.

What to do if you loose your iPhone.

Is Apple tracking iPhone IMEI Numbers?

Alternative iTunes video viewing.

Don't forget that Amazon's got some Black Friday Deals. Save yourself an early wake-up and shop from home this Friday.

Are First Run Films iTunes Next Act?

2007-11-19T05:00:00.000-05:00

If you've been reading this blog with any regularity, you know that I am a major advocate of iTunes movie rentals. While we'll have to wait for movie rentals, there is an interesting experiment going on in the movie section of the iTunes Store. Apple has started to go after the short films market and, beginning tomorrow, will offer the first-run full-length feature film, Purple Violets, for download.

Purple Violets is a film by Ed Burns, who's first film, The Brothers McMullen, went from indie acclaim to commercial success (you may often catch it running on the various cable movie channels). Purple Violets has been called Burns' best film since The Brothers McMullen, so it is kind of surprising that Burns is willing to take an unorthodox route in releasing first on iTunes (exclusively for 1 month) instead of going through a major studio for distribution in theaters. According to Burns, the iTunes release experiment is worth the gamble:

we were talking with several distributors and had an offer from a company that I had worked at before and it was the same model--the platform release, New York, LA, let’s wait for the reviews [and] our per-screen averages that first weekend, and we’ll go to the next eight markets, the next 12 markets and we’ll roll out that way. That has been my career for 12 years, but I would say for the last seven years that hasn’t worked for my films...So myself and my two producers, Aaron Lubin and Pam Murphy, were brainstorming and the idea came up, ‘What about approaching iTunes?’ They had never premiered a film before… We thought this is where it seems to be going, so why not be on the cutting-edge of this technology-- and we can’t do any worse than the last three films of mine have done theatrically, so maybe we can do better.

The strange thing is, at least up until now, Apple does not seem to be hyping this up too much. There's no prominent mention of the film on the iTunes store yet (although that may change tomorrow), just a buried entry for it in the "coming soon" section of the movie store. What makes Apple's lack of hype even more puzzling is the fact that Hollywood seems to be looking at how successful Apple, the de facto only game in town, can make Purple Violets:

"They're obviously the leader, by a long way," says Jamie Chvotkin, president at CD Baby and Film Baby, two services that help musicians and filmmakers offer their work in digital form. "Their share in movies is probably similar to what it is in music, somewhere in the 80% range."

...

"Purple Violets," which stars director Ed Burns, Debra Messing, and Selma Blair and was made on a $4 million budget, will be a crucial test for iTunes, the first movie it'll have before it is available anywhere else.

Properly marketed, "Purple Violets" or another indie exclusive could turn into the kind of breakout hit that could nudge digital downloading into the mainstream -- something that hasn't happened yet.

It is no secret that the movie studios have been reluctant to deal with Apple on movie downloads:

Privately, studio execs have expressed hope that iTunes won't turn into the single dominant retailer of digital movies -- with all the accompanying negotiating leverage -- that it has become for music. They don't want to be in business with a partner that dictates terms to them, rather than the other way around..."It's not that those studios don't want more distribution, it's that they're not willing to sell movies at a price lower (than the DVD wholesale price) to Apple," says CinemaNow's Marvis. "Someone is going to have to blink."

Given the fact that the major studios have, until now, been reluctant to deal with Apple on downloads (rentals may be another story), you would thing Apple would be going all out on this release. So far, besides the promotion Burns is doing himself, Apple has not made a big splash - even though Purple Violets could jump start the stalemate between Apple and the studios:

"Properly marketed, 'Purple Violets' or another indie exclusive could turn into the kind of breakout hit that could nudge digital downloading into the mainstream -- something that hasn't happened yet."

So, keep an eye on iTunes over the next couple of weeks to see how successful Purple Violets is. You can order the film (I believe for $12.99 today and then I think for $14.99 tomorrow) on iTunes. Here's the link (which will open in iTunes):

iPhone News Beat: Weekend Edition - November 18, 2007

2007-11-18T18:27:00.000-05:00

Slow news weekend, but here's the round up:

Seems HiJacking your iPhone has consequences.

Why Google's Android is wrong.

What Android means for Apple.

The iPhone Java fantasy continues...

I'll second this wish for iPhone WiFi podcast downloads.

Of course, the big news this weekend was the impending Monday morning launch of the Amazon Kindle eBook reader. Newsweek has the cover story (oddly without pictures but Engadget has some).

Finally, we are 4 days until black friday. If your in the market for Apple products, set you alarm clocks early friday and get down to the nearest Apple Store as they have historically had some good deals. For everything else, and to save yourself a trip out after eating all that turkey, check out Amazon's Black Friday Deals Page.

2008: iTunes Movie Rentals?

2007-11-16T08:02:00.000-05:00

I've been saying for some time that Apple needs to offer iTunes Movie Rentals. I am not the only one.

Recently, a college student noticed that with the release of iTunes 7.5, there are clues burried in the code that movie rentals may be coming soon.

Related to this is the ongoing struggle with TV content and digital distribution. Yet, despite the fears of the TV networks, viewing TV content online or via iPods and iPhones through iTunes, is not the cause of the decrease in TV viewership.

There has been some hope that Movie Rentals would come before the holidays.
While I would love to see movie rentals before the holidays, I don't
think will happen until January 2008 at the Macworld conference. With the holiday shopping season due to kick off next week and the iPhone launch in France on November 29th, Apple will probably be quite content to sit on Movie Rentals until MacWorld.

Of course, I could be wrong. In just the past two weeks we've had a MacBook update without a press release and a significant upgrade to Final Cut Express with a simple press release. Anyone who has been following Apple for some time knows that back in 2001 to early 2003 both of these would have been fuel for at least an "Apple Special Event". But, ever since the "MacWorld NY controversy", Apple has announced products on its own time table and in a tiered manner - "low key" announcements (press release - generally speed bumps to existing products), "medium key" announcements (special events - usually at the Apple Town Hall or at industry functions), and "high visibility" (macworld, wwdc, any special event held at Moscone).

So, why does this matter? Well because Movie Rentals would have to fall into at least the "medium" category. That would require at least an Apple Special Event which means that invitations would need to go out to the press. In the past, Apple has given at least 2 weeks notice as to when these events would occur (sometimes more, and I believe, on one occasion, 1 week notice - but I could be wrong on that one). But, I would argue that a Movie Rental announcement would be "high visibility". With the holidays approaching any Apple Event would need to happen the first week in December (since, due to the Thanksgiving holiday, next week is out and Apple would not want to steal the thunder of the iPhone France launch on the 29th).

But, the next "high visibility" event is already on the calendar and only 8 weeks away - MWSF on January 15th. So what's on tap for MWSF? Well, the scuttlebutt says some sort of portable tablet. And that's about it right now. We know there'll be no OS X announcement since Leopard was just released. Ditto for iLife and iWork. The iPod line was just completely refreshed so that's probably a zero (with an outside chance of a storage bump/price cut).

So what does that leave in Apple's product line to announce? New displays? Maybe, but that's been anticipated for a while (and still hasn't happened). New iMacs? They were refreshed recently too. MacPros? Ok, well they are due for a refresh but, they are not really "consumer" machines and Apple likes to target Macworld with consumer products. So, other than the ultra-portable and laptop line, the only thing that is due for a needed redesign is Apple TV. How much sense would it make to announce Movie Rentals along with a new Apple TV with say, an integrated DVD player and maybe DVR capabilities? (Yes, I know there's the iPhone, but I've gone on record already as saying iPhone 2 is not happening the first half of 2008). A lot of sense I think.

So, despite the speculation, I don't think we will see iTunes Movie Rentals until MWSF. I expect that the iTunes portion of the keynote will include both Movie Rentals and the Beatles. Until then, keep that Netflix subscription going.

iPhone News Beat: Nov. 16, 2007

2007-11-16T05:43:00.000-05:00

With 1 week until Black Friday and 9 weeks until MWSF, here's the iPhone news for November 16, 2007:

Canada's finally getting some lower mobile data fees, thanks to iPhone.

Fortune gets in on the iPhone bashing for website hits game. Nothing to see here. Move along.

An Amazon eReader? (and it looks like it got hit with the ugly stick).

Plans to hack Java onto the iPhone.

Maya: Temple of Secrets launched for iPhone (here's the iPhone link).

Id Software and Steve Jobs battle over iPhone games.

Is Apple worried about hackers rather than new features?

A proposed alternative to the iPhone scrubber.

Best Buy to sell iPhones on Black Friday?

iPhone News Beat: Nov. 15, 2007

2007-11-14T14:31:00.000-05:00

iPhone news roundup for November 15, 2007:

As noted yesterday the BBC has launched an iPhone and iPod Touch optimized streaming podcast site.

Security Expert says 80-90% of iPhone malware in the future.

iPod Touch is an iPhone killer.

iPhone better in Europe.

iPhone and rain may not mix.

A dirty iPhone secret.

iPhone and iPod Touch Enhance Video Podcasts

2007-11-14T05:55:00.000-05:00

If you are looking for new and interesting content for your iPhone or iPod Touch, then let me recommend that you check out the Podcast section of the iTunes Store.

I had dabbled in audio podcasts in the past with my iPod. Unfortunately, I found that I had neither the time nor the inclination to keep up with many of the podcasts I was interested in. As a result, I had not checked out the podcast section of the iTunes store in some time. Since then, how things have changed. While I was aware at how popular podcasting had become, I was not aware of the extent of content available. IThere are a plethera of not only audio but video podcasts - some of the quite good.

With there large screens and video resolutions, the iPhone and iPod Touch just scream out for video content. But, you can only buy so many TV episodes and movies from the iTunes store. Apple's YouTube application tries to help fill that void, but I find YouTube so full of junk that its near worthless (not to mention the fact that much of the video available on YouTube looks horrible). Enter the Video PodCast. There are some real gems available with excellent production and content. The best part - most are free.

In the past week, I've looked at cooking podcasts (something that really shines in a video as you can watch the recipe being made), the Philadelphia Eagles week in review (26 minutes of video reviewing the Eagles week and there are similar podcasts for each NFL team), National Geographic Video Shorts (sharks, nature, history), The Discovery Channel Video PodCast (additional content from the Discovery Channel Shows) and many others ( network news shows, comedy podcasts network TV shows, newspapers, tech magazines and websites - just a large variety of content is available).

To give you an idea of what's available, check out these links:

VideoPodCast.tv Directory

PodCast Alley - Video PodCast Section

PodCasting News - Video PodCasts

Podfeed - Video PodCast Reviews

and, of course, the PodCast section of the iTunes store. It is well worth the visit.

The BBC I think shows the potential future of podcasting. Up until now, you had to download a podcast to your computer and sync it up with your iPod. With the iPhone and iPod Touch, that's not a requirement any longer. The BBC Podcast directory allows you to use Safari to select a BBC podcast and stream it right from WiFi or the Edge network. While the BBC podcasts are audio only, I expect we will see many video podcasts go this route (as could TV shows and even movies - given enough bandwidth).

iPhone News Beat: Nov. 14, 2007

2007-11-14T03:41:00.000-05:00

Here's today's iPhone News Beat for November 14, 2007:

iPhone is Wrong

Access your Mac from your iPhone with iGet Mobile.

Re-thinking Android.

How to write an iPhone Application.

iPhone as Gameboy (warning needs Jailbreak).

Usability Study says iPhone Keyboard error prone.

RIM CEO: iPhone not up to par.

iPhone vs. Android: The New Platform Wars?

2007-11-13T05:29:00.000-05:00

Paul Murphy over at ZDnet has an interesting take on the Mac OS X Leopard reviews making the rounds on the web. Murphy (rightly I think) points out some inconsistencies of the reviewers in failing to note certain aspects of Leopard but, more importantly, he says:

But if you ignore the partisan reviewers and ask what the real bottom line on “Leopard” is, the answer turns out to be the iPhone - because the current Mactels are this generation’s Apple IIIs.

What’s going on is that 10.5 is a mixed bag reflecting both short and long term agendas. In the short term it cleans up some x86 issues and offers some new user features raising the bar for Microsoft’s next effort -particularly with respect to time machine because this will be hard for Microsoft to duplicate while Apple’s adoption of ZFS means that all of the compexity here will disappear in the next release.

In the long term, however, what 10.5 is about is positioning Apple’s application developers to jump to the integrated server/playphone world of the future - that’s why there’s so much Solaris and Java development stuff there.

I think he's got it right. The important thing about Leopard is that it is the iPhone OS. I believe that Apple has determined that the future of computing (or at least where there is money to be made) is in these smaller devices - iPods, iPhones and smaller laptop/tablet form factors. The Mac OS X technology stack - Cocoa libraries (especially the "Core" libraries), H.264, Webkit - and the "noun" interface (which includes the Gesture input methods) is Apple's future. To this stack, Apple has bolted on some complementary technology (for e.g. ZFS).

Add it all up and you have a very good OS stack for small devices like iPhones, iPods (and it is clear that the iPods future is the iPod touch and not the iPod classic), "Tablets" and event set top boxes. The missing piece of this puzzle is the iPhone SDK.

Which brings us to Android, Google's new phone OS. There has been some speculation that Apple will use Android as its SDK. After all, Android uses the webkit rendering engine, which is the basis of Apple's Safari. And, there does seem to be an "Apple" like influence to Android's UI. But, I don't see it happening.

First off, Android uses Java, which Apple has shown some distain for. Apple is seems to be firmly committed to Objective C. But more importantly, the Android platform is meant to run on handsets from any manufactuer. Anyone who knows anything about Apple and Steve Jobs knows that controlling the whole widget is important:

“We define everything that is on the phone,” he said. “You don’t want your phone to be like a PC. The last thing you want is to have loaded three apps on your phone and then you go to make a call and it doesn’t work anymore. These are more like iPods than they are like computers.”

The iPhone, he insisted, would not look like the rest of the wireless industry.

“These are devices that need to work, and you can’t do that if you load any software on them,” he said. “That doesn’t mean there’s not going to be software to buy that you can load on them coming from us. It doesn’t mean we have to write it all, but it means it has to be more of a controlled environment.”

So, what we have is Apple's more or less "closed" platform vs. Android's open one. Not to mention the fact that Microsoft and Symbian will want to join this battle.

This is not unlike the Mac vs. Windows war of the late 1980's and early 1990's. Who "wins" this war will depend on what Apple learned from its battles with Microsoft and, in no small part, to what degree the Android platform finds users.

iPhone News Beat

2007-11-13T03:38:00.000-05:00

Today's iPhone News:

iPhone Update 1.1.2 (finally) officially released.

UK iPhone Launch: sales in "tens of thousands."

O2 having problems meeting iPhone iPhone activation requests.

Way found to make custom ringtones using iTunes 7.5 and iPhone 1.1.2 software.

iPhone going to China?

Two-thirds of UK iPhone buyers switching to O2 from rivals.

iPhone to get spotlight search function next year.

Google's Android: Java and a lot of Money

2007-11-12T07:37:00.000-05:00

As promiosed, Google released the Android SDK today. The big news - Android is Java based. The really, really big news - Google is offering up a ton of money ($10 Million) to developers to program applications for Android.

First, a run down (and don't take this as definitive, I'm still slogging through the documentation)

Android will run on windows, linux and mac
Develop in Java on Eclipse
There's an emulator to test applications right now
The UI elements are available, but may not be the final version

Its pretty clear that Android is a flavor of J2ME, but to say that really takes away from what Android is. J2ME is simply an sandbox that runs on phone that support it. In that sandbox, developers can write applications but, they can only control the phone to the extent that the handset maker offers through its APIs. Android lets developers access to just about everything on the phone. Kind of like telling someone they have to stay in their hotel room on vacation (J2ME) and giving them free reign of an entire resort (Android).

The bigger news is that Google is willing to put its money where its mouth is. It's going to give 50 application $25,000 in its design contest. Twenty of those will then get $275,000 or $100,000 to bring the application to market.

As I noted before, this is not an iPhone killer. But, it is clearly something that may work. The fact that Google is willing to subsidize application development for this platform is a good sign. But, until we actually see a phone that this works on, the success of this effort is still in doubt.

iPhone Due for more features

2007-11-12T07:23:00.000-05:00

Apple has some more features for the iPhone on tap. According to the website Pocket-lint, a spokesman for Apple stated that:

All the complaints and feature requests we've had can be fixed and added by software upgrades

Features referenced in the article include recording video and streaming data and music via Bluetooth 2.0.

Now, given Apple's tight lipped policy regarding announcements of new products or features, I can of find it hard to believe that an anonymous Apple spokesman actually said this. But, the premise of the article is correct, the iPhone, because it is based on OS X, Apple can easily add features and, Apple has made it known that it intends to add more functionality to the iPhone over time.

That being said, I think you have to lend some credence to this report, simply because adding features to the iPhone is an easy way to keep the iPhone relevant and gain more profits for Apple.

iPhone Java: Not Gonna Happen

2007-11-11T21:21:00.000-05:00

There's been some speculation that the Open-Sourcing of Java might eventually lead to Java coming to the iPhone. I'll be blunt: I don't see it happening. Despite the hopes and wishes of the Java community, Java on the iPhone is a pipe dream.

iPhone News Beat

2007-11-11T20:50:00.000-05:00

Welcome to another Monday! Only 9 Days until Thanksgiving. Here's today's iPhone News, trying to make it until the four day weekend edition:

Although I don't recommend it, Jailbreak 1.1.2 has been released. Have fun hacking your iPhone.

The first iPhone HiFi dock?

A Doctor who makes house calls, thanks to his iPhone.

Is the iPhone (and its competitors) the grim reaper for PDAs?

O2 says hundreds of thousands of iPhones sold.

iPhone O2's fastest selling device ever.

iPhone disrupted cell phone market.

iPhone Beat: Weekend Edition

2007-11-10T09:50:00.000-05:00

Now that the iPhone UK and German launches are complete, here's a look at the weekend's iPhone news. Oddly enough, the iPhone Software update is available, but not through iTunes yet. Very curious.....

So the iPhone has brought some iPhone Joy.

Yet another call to Set the iPhone free.

iPhones sell at 4.2 per second in Scotland.

iPhones European Launch "Failure".

iPhone still scaring CIOs.

O2: UK iPhone Sales exceeding expectations.

Essential iPhone Apps

2007-11-09T06:44:00.000-05:00

Welcome new iPhoners!

After you are done playing with the iPhone's installed applications, you may be want to expand your horizons with new iPhone Applications. You may be tempted to Jailbreak the iPhone to install applications. Just hold that thought for a moment. You may have heard that Apple really really does not like you to do this. But there is a way to expand your iPhone horizons - iPhone Web Apps.

Now, Apple's contention that iPhone Web Apps is a great way to expand the iPhone's functionality has gotten some Bad Press. But, there are some very cool Web Apps out there. So let's take a look at a few you may want to try out (all of the links below will go right to the iPhone enabled web app).

First up is, of course, Bejeweled, the classic and addictive game. Just use your finger to point the way and you'll be zapping gems without end.

Want to see a movie? Check out its reviews at the Tomato Meter. Then, find movie times and buy tickets at Fandango.

Want a good meal and to avoid food poisoning? Check out Zagat for a restaurant then Find It (and for our UK friends there's Yell.com.)

Be Productive - access your Docs and Spreadsheets at Google Docs.

Translate and Speak other languages at Ultralingua.

Keep up-to-date on the news and your web feeds at Google Reader and digg.

Socialize at Facebook and Blog about your life at TypePad.

Be a Bookworm: Harper Collins has a nifty little web app to let you browse inside some of their titles and links to buy at them at Amazon.com.

Check out more web apps at Apple's Web App Page and iLounge.com's iPhone Software Page.

So, there's lots to do and explore before you hijack that iPhone and perhaps void your warranty. And don't fret, the iPhone SDK is coming soon so you'll get to have those "real" iPhone Apps shortly.

iPhone News Beat

2007-11-09T05:56:00.000-05:00

With a little over two hours to go until the UK iPhone launch, here's a look at today's iPhone News...

As noted early this morning, iPhone and iPod Touch Software update has been posted by Apple.

The Burst.com lawsuit against Apple has been narrowed a bit. Apple didn't get the complete dismissal it wanted but 14 of Burst's claims has been dismissed. If you have not been following this story, Burst contends that Apple is violating its patents for compressing, storing and sharing media over a network.

Google has updated its Goggle Reader for iPhone.

A look at the current iPhone killers (or clones depending on what your perspective is).

The Register has Six Months of iPhone on one handy page.

Analysts remember Apple's iPhone Accounting of course, they could have just listened the first time this was announced.

Still Loving the iPhone.

British Invasion.

Preview Harper Collins Books on the iPhone. Here's the link to point your iPhone to: harpercollins mobile.

Times Online: iPhone: Expensive but Exceptional.

iPhone/iPod Update Out (kind of)

2007-11-08T21:06:00.000-05:00

Late Night quick post:

Looks like Apple has posted the iPhone/iPod Touch Software update 1.1.2 to its download url. iTunes doesn't seem to know about it yet though. While its probably best to wait until iTunes prompts you, Engadget has the details and direct download link here:

iPod Touch

iPhone

No big surprises - iPhone hacks are broke again (and apparently quickly on the way to being hijacked again). Well actually one surprise, apparently the iPod Touch calendar application will let you enter calender items on the Touch. Yippie. Nice to see Apple respond to all of those complaints (why they thought that people would not want the Touch to enter calendar entries is beyond me).

Meanwhile, folks in the UK are waiting through the night for their iPhones. And it looks like a fun Midnight Madness release in Germany.

The iPhone News Beat

2007-11-08T04:52:00.000-05:00

A new feature of the Blog, daily iPhone news....

CEO of ARM says iPhone's ARM11 processor elderly technology.

Starting to Line Up in the UK for the iPhone.

iPhone software update tomorrow.

RIM CEO says iPhone keyboard difficult to use an iPhone not a threat to Blackberry.

UK Police to iPhone customers: hide you iPhone or get mugged.

Apple vs. the iHackers.

MacWorld UK; should you buy an iPhone or iPod Touch?

iPhone Review: Beautiful.

Blackberry is a Ford, iPhone is a Ferrari

Eisner says Blame Apple. He's Wrong.

2007-11-07T09:51:00.000-05:00

Leave it to Michael Eisner to prove exactly what's wrong with the studio mindset regarding video digital distribution:

The studios "make deals with Steve Jobs, who takes them to the cleaners.
They make all these kinds of things, and who's making money? Apple!
They should get a piece of Apple. If I was a union, I'd be striking up
wherever he is."

Ugh. As I have noted before the mindset that Apple is to blame for the supposed lack of profits on video digital distribution is simply hog wash.

First of all, the studios haven't seriously taken a shot yet at digital distribution. Apple's only got around 1000 videos for sale on the iTunes store. Moreover, I am convinced that video sales of films are just not what people want - rentals are where the volume (and money) is (and I am not the only one who thinks this).

More importantly, the movie and TV studios are just irrationally wedded to an advertising model. They think that ads will make them money, the same way it makes them money on TV. But it will not work in the digital world. They have to offer their products digitally in a manner that is convenient, simple to use and, can be accessed anywhere. For many reasons, an ad based model doesn't fit that bill (not to mention the fact that it is very easy to eliminate ads in digital distribution - and that absolutely drives the studios nuts). And they have to offer the content at a price that is reasonable ($9.99 for a movie download - without the DVD extras - and $1.99 a TV episode is pushing the upper limits here. And yet, they want higher prices!). And of course, they continue to insist on restrictive DRM.

Not only is Eisner an idiot for his Apple comment, he's just plain wrong on the writer's strike:

For a writer to give up today's money for a nonexistent piece of
the future -- they should do it in three years, shouldn't be doing
it now -- they are misguided they should not have gone on the
strike. I've seen stupid strikes, I've seen less stupid strikes,
and this strike is just a stupid strike.

Now, I admit I don't know all the details about the writer's strike, but I do know that the whole reason there is a strike is because the writer's forgot to deal for DVD's the last time. Seems reasonable to me that the writers don't want to let several years of digital revenue pass without them having a deal to getting a share of it.

So, after all this BS, where does Eisner think the of video distribution future is? Yup, you got it - the internet. Thats where is putting his own money. What a clown.

Waiting for iPhone...

2007-11-07T07:28:00.000-05:00

It's two days until the UK and German iPhone launch which means that its time for some more iPhone Reviews. The Guardian publishes the Part III of its iPhone review (Part I, Part II, Part III). The BBC takes a different approach discussing how competitors have responded to the iPhone with the now typical comments from phone makers that they are not too worried about the iPhone (and I have this land in Florida I'd like to sell you...).

Elsewhere, we've got a plea for Apple to enable the ability to turn off the phone but keep the WiFi on. And a ponder about how long AT&T will continue to prominently promote the iPhone. On a related note it appears there's a touch screen shortage.

Finally, there's this column about how Apple should allow 3rd party application support and not kill them off with the anticipated iPhone software update.

Now, I am of two minds on this. I don't think Apple should worry about killing off iPhone hacks. I know first hand how difficult it is sometimes to support a product. If you tacitly allow folks to use you product in a way it was not intended to be used or, in a way you specifically told them you would not support its use, then, to be honest, they get what they deserve. No complaining.

On the other hand, not allowing development on the iPhone on day 1 was a big mistake on Apple's part. The iPhone was released with fan fair and hype as the next big thing and positioned as a big part of the future of Apple. By not including its developers in this it not sent the wrong message, but the "use webkit and build web apps" was a BS attempt by Apple to make it look like Apple was responding to developer concerns.

Of course, Apple says it will rectify things in February with the release of the iPhone SDK, but it has got to be a tough decision on Apple's part - do they kill all hacks or do they allow iPhone/iPod Touch 3rd party application hacks but just kill SIM card unlock hacks?

Right now, I guess the answer is kill all hacks. I suspect that Apple will have to worry about this for one more software update cycle. After that, Apple will kill all SIM card hacks and the SDK will take care of everything else. Now, what exactly the SDK will allow and how it will allow it is another story...

Odds & Ends: Today's Interesting Reads

2007-11-07T07:19:00.000-05:00

Around the Mac Web for November 7, 2007, superior technology edition:

Computer World: Leopard Beats Vista

Macs Cheaper than PC's

OS X 10.5.1 Nearing Release

Apple Better than Microsoft to Make Tablet

Odds & Ends: Today's Interesting Reads

2007-11-06T11:13:00.000-05:00

Around the Mac Web for November 6, 2007, comments activated edition:

iPhone's Success = Copy Cats

Fake Steve on Refrigerators and the Google Vapor Phone

Hell Still a Bit Chilly

Incredible Shrinking Microsoft

iPhone Version 2 and Apple Tablet

2007-11-06T05:34:00.000-05:00

CNet UK is reporting that the much rumored Apple Tablet is a real product and Apple is working with Asus to manufacture it. Not too surprising as many people have been predicting/hoping that Apple would develop such a product. However, if the Apple Tablet (iTablet) is real, how does that affect the iPhone?

There has been an assumption that Apple will release an updated version of iPhone next year. Many assume that the iPhone 2 will include a significant bump in the iPhone's hardware specs with the addition of 3G network support, perhaps a video camera and/or internal GPS Unit. However, if you look at the history of Apple's product upgrades since Steve Jobs returned to the company and factor in the short history of the iPhone itself, expecting this kind of iPhone update anytime soon is not realistic.

Apple's typical product refresh cycle has run about 10-18 months depending on the specific product and what else Apple has been working on (for example, in hindsight, we can see that there was a longer delay in hardware while OS X was being worked on and a similar delay in iPod refresh while the iPhone and iPod Touch were being developed). Macrumors.com has a handy page that tracks these things. So, right off the bat, I think we can be fairly confident that Macworld January 2008 (MWSF) will not be bringing us a totally revamped iPhone 2. After all, it will have been only six months since the U.S. launch of iPhone and not even 3 since the UK, France, and German launches.

Moreover, I think Apple will want to give the current version of the iPhone some time to develop - figuratively and literally, with the announced introduction of the iPhone SDK due in February.

Additionally, given the backlash Apple got for its significant price cuts on the iPhone, I doubt that it wants to go down that path again anytime soon. Can you imagine what kind of reaction Apple would get from current iPhone owners if it introduces a significantly enhanced iPhone at MWSF?

So, I suspect that we will not see a major hardware refresh on the iPhone. Thats not to say Apple would not up the memory on the iPhone (say for example adding a 16 GB iPhone to the iPhone product line). Plus, Apple probably will introduce new iPhone Applications at MWSF.

Remember that in addition to being a hardware device, the iPhone is a platform. Apple is already spreading the profits from that platform out over the 2 year life of each iPhone's AT&T contract. It has a vested interest in keeping that platform fresh. So, upgrading the hardware anytime soon, as I see it, detracts from this philosophy. The easy way to keep the platform fresh is via software updates and not new hardware.

For these reasons, the logical time for the next major iPhone refresh is next fall. Such a major iPhone refresh not only would allow Apple to have a new product for the holiday season, but it also to get current iPhone owners to re-up their contracts with AT&T (and thus extend these contracts from their intial two years to three. This could be done as a trade-in program).

If indeed MWSF 2008 is too soon for an iPhone refresh, then the release of the iTablet at MWSF, based on the iPhone touch technology and the Apple "noun" interface makes sense. Such a product is a logical extension of the iPhone/iPod Touch product line and a nice merge of the iMac/iPhone products. Although tablet computers have not sold too well in the past, an Apple "iTablet" based on the iPhone and OS X technology stacks will probably sell like hot cakes. So save those pennies for January...

Google Phone no iPhone Killer (yet)

2007-11-05T06:51:00.000-05:00

Google announced the Open Handset Alliance today:

"Building a better mobile phone would enrich the lives of countless
people across the globe. The Open Handset Alliance™ is a group of
mobile and technology leaders who share this vision for changing the
mobile experience for consumers."

The Alliance is a collection of Mobile Operators, Handset makers, Semiconductor Companies and Software Companies. Obviously Google is part of the Alliance. The other big names include Sprint, T-Mobile, NTT DoCoMo, Telefónica, HTC, Motorola, LG, Samsung, Intel, Qualcomm. There are several others. Here's the list.

The alliance has developed Android:

"the first complete, open, and free mobile platform. We are committed to
commercially deploy handsets and services using the Android Platform in
the second half of 2008."

Google will provide the first look at Android on November 12 when the Android Software Development Kit (SDK) will be released.

Some details about Android:

Android is built on the open Linux Kernel.
Uses a
custom virtual machine in order to optimize memory and
hardware resources.
Open
source.

My Quick Take:

Well, clearly not the iPhone killer. At least not yet anyway.

There are very few actual details at the Android web site (although there is a video of the Android engineers. how sweet). Until we actually see something this is nothing more than some high minded statement of what the perfect open source phone OS is.

Additionally, many of these industry alliances have a difficult time producing a usable product. Assuming this is really Google's baby and they are driving it, the likelihood of actually producing something increases.

So until November 12 when we'll get a look at the SDK, there's not much here. After that, there has to be an actual phone developed with this platform.

Odds & Ends: Today's Interesting Reads

2007-11-05T05:40:00.000-05:00

Around the Mac Web for November 5, 2007:

Mac Sales becoming big for Apple

Apple Cracking Down on iPhone Hacks

Google Phone Platform: Announcement 11 am Today

[Update...]

Google has an Andriod (After all the hype Google announces the Open Handset Alliance)

iPhone Software Update Imminent (and Beyond...)

2007-11-05T05:12:00.000-05:00

T3 magazine has gotten a look at the uk edition of the iPhone and there are a couple of interesting items as a result.

The big news out of the UK preview is that we can expect an iPhone firmware update on November 9 to support the launch. U.S. iPhone users will probably not see anything more than some security and minor bug fixes. One thing not yet known is whether Apple will brick iPhones that have been hacked. My money is on yes (and that's a completely different post).

Another interesting tidbit can be found in Apples responses to T3's questions. With regard to MMS messages Apple had an interesting response - essentially said they are not going to support anything but high definition picture sharing. Sounds like a new iPhone feature coming soon.

Apple also addressed the fact that you can not SMS with multiple people. Apple's response was that they don't comment on future enhancements. This is, of course, Apple's position on just about everything speculative. However, recently, I've noticed that Apple only drags out this old chestnut only when there is something coming down the pike that will address the issue. What this means is probably the rumored version of iChat for the iphone will be released soon.

As I see it, it looks like there's going to be at least one software update for the iPhone before the holidays. That would make sense. I suspect the priority at Apple for the remained of 2007 is to (1) Roll out Mac OS X Leopard (check); (2) Get the worldwide iPhone rollout done (in progress) with as little hassle as possible (i.e. one maybe 2 minor iPhone software updates; (3) Focus on a bang-up holiday season with Leopard, iPhone and the revamped iPod line (don't forget the Mac!) and finally, (4) Prepare for Macworld in January.

Obviously its Apple's annual Christmas in January is coming soon. So what can we expect come MWSF. I am sure that this will become THE hot topic on the Mac web in a few weeks so let me just kick off some speculation, directed at iPhone.

I think we will see three types of iPhone updates at MWSF. The first will be those that folks have been clamoring for and I classify as items that are needed to flush out the iPhone as a platform. These include things like the landscape keypad available in all applications, copy and past or some facsimile therof and other such UI niceties.

The next group of features are those I classify as new applications. In this category I put the much rumored iChat mobile and perhaps some other small widget like applications. I am sure we will see one or two of these at MWSF (an easy call given my last item below...).

Finally I think Apple will introduce something completely unexpected for the iPhone and tied into a larger Apple effort - video. I suspect that Apple is going to make a push in video next year (I would not be surprised if Steve works the phrase "year of Video into the Macworld Keynote). Its probably no big surprise that I, like many others, suspect that push is going to come in the form of movie rentals for iTunes and Apple TV (and an enhanced Apple TV at that). The iPhone will be a part of those plans. At a minimum you'll be able to watch your rentals on the iPhone after you download them in iTunes (duh. no brainer there). But even more exciting would be the ability to stream the rentals on the iPhone. If Apple goes in this direction it would be an iTunes WiFi-type enhancement (i.e. you can only stream with a WiFi connection).

Finally, I expect Apple will release the iPhone SDK, is some form, to developers at MWSF. Although it has not been promised until February, MWSF would be the logical time to get a preview the SDK release and get something into developers hands. That's why I think Apple will give out a couple of new apps to the iPhone at MWSF - to show the developers what can be done with the SDK. I expect Apple will follow up training days for developers in select cities like they did with the webkit iPhone development "kit".

2007-11-04T18:01:00.000-05:00

If you have not noticed, I am making the migration on this site from Wordpress to Movable Type. I spent nearly the entire weekend making the move (and I am still not convinced its the right thing to do).

As I result, I present a Weekend Wrap of Odds & Ends, around the Mac web for November 3 & 4, 2007:

Another SNL iPhone Spoof

Behind the 02 iPhone Deal

Google vs. iPhone?

O2 Expects 200,000 iPhone Holiday Sales

AT&T iPhone International Plan

iPhone Firmware Set to Make iBricks

Apple Backlash?

iPhone Rumors

Music Subscriptions...DOA (Again)

2007-11-02T10:04:00.000-04:00

Well, Well, Well. Seems that Napster has figured out that there is no business in music subscriptions.

Might want to let Rick Rubin know about that:

"You would subscribe to music," Rubin explained, as he settled on the velvet couch in his library. "You'd pay, say, $19.95 a month, and the music will come anywhere you'd like. In this new world, there will be a virtual library that will be accessible from your car, from your cellphone, from your computer, from your television. Anywhere. The iPod will be obsolete, but there would be a Walkman-like device you could plug into speakers at home. You'll say, 'Today I want to listen to ... Simon and Garfunkel,' and there they are. The service can have demos, bootlegs, concerts, whatever context the artist wants to put out. And once that model is put into place, the industry will grow 10 times the size it is now."

I'm not sure if Rubin is deluding himself or if he's just spouting off the Columbia Records corporate fantasy. Either way, like it or not, people want to own their music. Gee wonder where I heard that before....

Odds & Ends: Today's Interesting Reads

2007-11-02T06:56:00.000-04:00

Around the Mac Web, Greatest Invention of the Year (TM) Edition:

Time: Invention of the Year

Invention of Year Embarrassment

Big UK iPhone Sales Expected

Apple's Having Problems with Dot Mac

EEK! A Virus!

Mossberg Hates Gateway (Surprise! Not!)

Must Read: Apple Needs a Nikon

Odds & Ends: Today's Interesting Reads

2007-11-01T05:41:00.000-04:00

Around the Mac web for November 1, 2007, Intel GMA X3100 graphics edition,

MacBook Stealth Update

Time Invention of the Year: iPhone

iPhone already has a Legacy

Leopard's Quality

Leopard Demolishes Vista

Someone Else noticed Apple's Cash Nest Egg

Strike!

Last, but certainly not least, iLounge has released the iLounge 2008 iPod & iPhone buyers guide. Really good stuff. I recommend it highly (and it comes in a really cool iPhone format too!).

The Java Controversy - Much Ado About Nothing

2007-11-01T03:24:00.000-04:00

It seems like every day there's a new controversy on the Mac web. Today its Java (well, to be fair this controversy has been brewing for some time as we shall see). Specifically, Apple's support (or lack there of) for Java 6.

Now, in order to understand this controversy, you have to know a little bit about Java.

Java 6 is Sun's (the creators of Java) most recent release of the Java platform (and Java is alot more than just a programming language. A fact that adds to the confusion. A couple of years ago Sun, in an effort to capitalize on all the good buzz the Java programming language was getting, decided it would be good marketing to name just about anything Java or base just about anything released by Sun on Java. And don't even get me started on Javascript).

Java 6 was proceeded by Java 5, which makes sense but, Java 5 was proceeded by...Java 1.4. Oh, yes - Java 5 is alternatively known as Java 1.5 (and among the Java community you will sometimes hear Java 6 called Java 1.6, but I digress).

The Java on OS X Timeline spells out the details but, essentially, when Mac OS X added Java 1.4 support, Java developers sat up and took notice. By the time support for Java 1.5 came about, many Java developers were downright in love with Macs. Its not hard to see why, they could have their Java development environment with Unix tools and still be a good corporate citizen with Microsoft Office on the Mac. Plus, it was a Mac so things tended to just work (at the same time Java on Windows had issues).

But, then things started to go wrong. I'll let the Java developers speak for themselves first:

Gosling Dumps OS X

Time for Java developers to Leave OS X

To summarize the controversy, Apple is very far behind porting Java 6 to Mac OS X. The Java Developers also have some gripes with some of the more advanced features of Java 5 on the Mac - specifically anything that has to to with Graphical User Interfaces (GUI's).

Of course, there are two sides to this story- first, Porting Java on OS X is hard and, Java 5 on OS X is Pretty Good.

So that's the issue and there is an all out revolt from all those Java developers who traded in their Windows boxes a few years ago for Macs.

My day job deals with Java so I might be considered to have a horse in this race - I'd love to see Apple support J2ME which is Java for smart phones and other small devices. But I don't think its ever going to happen as I'll explain below.

All of this "controversy" is much ado about nothing.

First, I think that this controversy over Java 6 is bogus since most companies don't run Java 6. In the corporate world folks tend to lag about one version behind. Consequently, nearly all of the (money making) Java programing being done is on Java 5 (nee, 1.5). Related to this is the fact that nearly all of this Java work is server side Java and so all the Java GUI madness does not apply.

But more importantly, I think Apple could care less. Java support by Apple is just not a priority anymore.

I think Apple will be happy to say goodbye to all these complaining Java developers. Why? I think they have (maybe rightly) assumed that Java is a technology that has reached middle age and grown about as much as its going to grow. As a result, just doesn't make sense to support Java with all of Apple's weight anymore. A few years ago it looked like Java would become an important technology on the desktop. It has not. It is important on servers, but how many desktop applications are written in Java? I can think of maybe two that are worth anything (that comment will generate a ton of hate mail I'm sure).

More over, the imporant technology for Apple is Objective-C with Cocoa on the desktop (and soon to be on the iPhone & iPod) and a WebKit, JavaScript, Ajax and Quicktime H.264 on the internet. Consequently, Java (and Adobe's Flash) is a direct threat to Apple.

I think Apple is more than happy to support open standards (e.g. Ruby, Python) that compliment its technology stack. But I think that Apple has made the decision not to support its competitors or technology it does not see as complementary to Apple technology. Java is both a threat (J2ME) and is not complimentary (J2SE - i.e. desktop java).

Will I be surprised if Apple finally releases support for Java 6? No. But I just don't think Apple is going to go out of its way to support Java nor have Java support drive its timelines or strategy. Apple has clearly decided that it can loose several thousand Java developers when it is picking up several thousand consumers every day.

Odds & Ends: Today's Interesting Reads

2007-10-31T11:16:00.000-04:00

Vampires, Ghosts, Unicorns and other mythical things (a.k.a. Google Phone edition):

The gPhone is Coming!

Verizon Google Phone

Google Boogyman

Unlocking is price of success

WWGD

Odds & Ends: Today's Interesting Reads

2007-10-30T05:54:00.000-04:00

Here are today's interesting reads, mac and non-mac:

2 Million Cats on the Loose

Leopard is Apple if His Eye

Why it was Called the Manhattan Project

What is a Hulu anyway?

Apple needs an actual TV

How to Save Apple TV

Apple-NBC War Continues

2007-10-29T10:07:00.000-04:00

Jeff Zucker, head of NBC Universal, wanted a piece of Apple's iPod sales in return for a deal to sell NBC's programming on iTunes:

"Apple sold millions of dollars worth of hardware off the back of our content and made a lot of money,” Zucker said. “They did not want to share in what they were making off the hardware or allow us to adjust pricing."

“We don’t want to replace the dollars we were making in the analog world with pennies on the digital side,” he said.

So, let me get this straight Jeff.

You want Apple to pay you a percentage of each iPod sale for the right to sell, for $1.99, an episode of the Office on iTunes.

Now, this is the same content that you give away for free every week.

The same stuff that anybody with a TiVo can record and then skip all those commercials when they watch it later.

Are you the dumbest guy on the planet?

Good luck with hoho or whatever you call it. HoHo is not exactly burning with buzz but I'm sure it's just what everyone wants - the ability to watch streaming TV and movies with commercials on their PC.

Oh yeah, and another thing Jeff. Apple didn't sell iPods off the back of your content (which you already give away for free). Apple sold iPods off the back of the Big 5 music label's content (LOL).

Seriously, Zucker's thinking is the problem here. He believes that his viewers will just watch where and when and how he says they will. It is a pre-digital mindset. The problem is that as DVD's, TiVo and iPods and iPhones have become common place, viewers have realized that they like the ability to choose the time and place and medium to watch TV shows and movies. That's why the movie theaters are slowly dying. Its why TV ratings are steadily declining. Its why DVD, iPods and TiVo sales are increasing.

Zuckers mindset conveniently forgets that iTunes sales saved his bacon:

"I'm not sure that we'd still have the show on the air" without the iTunes boost, says Angela Bromstead, president of NBC Universal Television Studio, which owns and produces "The Office." "The network had only ordered so many episodes, but when it went on iTunes and really started taking off, that gave us another way to see the true potential other than just Nielsen. It just kind of happened at a great time."

I think Apple should do one of two things - either seriously look into buying NBC Universal from General Electric or, drop the H-Bomb and release a version of iTunes that will rip DVDs in the "it just works" Apple way. I'm sure either move would get the movie studios and networks to play ball.

Apple's No Cash For iPhone is Legal

2007-10-29T07:20:00.000-04:00

Although, this guy doesn't think so, Apple's No Cash allowed policy is probably legal:

Coinage Act of 1965, specifically Section 31 U.S.C. 5103, entitled "Legal tender," which states: "United States coins and currency (including Federal reserve notes and circulating notes of Federal reserve banks and national banks) are legal tender for all debts, public charges, taxes, and dues...There is, however, no Federal statute mandating that a private business, a person or an organization must accept currency or coins as for payment for goods and/or services. "

Oddly enough, I am a licensed attorney so here's my thoughts for what its worth (and that's not much I'm afraid).

Since there is no Federal Law that mandates private merchants accept cash for transactions, private merchants are free to not accept cash. The point here is two fold, first, the Federal Government can only enforce Federal Laws that exist and second, the regulation of private merchants is generally left to the States. While State Law may require private merchants to accept cash, I don't know of (and have not heard of) any States that require private merchants to accept cash.

There are also freedom of contract issues here. Parties are generally free to set the terms of their own contracts. A consumer purchase is just a form of contract. Apple agrees to sell you and iPhone and you agree to pay for it. Apple is now setting the term that the only way you can pay is via credit card. You are certainly free to reject that term and, of course, Apple can refuse to sell to you since you rejected its terms.

The commerce clause argument (i.e. that the iPhone is a device regulated by the Federal Government and is often used in interstate commerce) is interesting. The problem is that who is going to foot the legal bills to challenge it - especially given current interpretations of the commerce clause (i.e. due to the conservative nature of the federal courts they have tried to limit the scope of the commerce clause. I think it is safe to assume that commerce clause challenges will generally fail - especially in this case where the challenge is not to any federal or state law but to the policy of a private merchant).

That being said, it is still interesting to consider.

The FCC has no regulatory powers over the sale of the device (i.e. it can't influence the price apple sells it for or who apple sells it to) so the argument that the iPhone is subject to federal government regulation based on FCC requirements is peripheral at best.

The more interesting argument is that the iPhone is often used in interstate commerce. The problem here is that the current view of the commerce clause, outlined in United States v. Lopez, 514 U.S. 549 (1995), United States v. Morrison, 529 U.S. 528 (2000) has set the limits of the commerce clause to (1) the channels of interstate commerce; (2) the instrumentalities of interstate commerce and; (3) actions that affect interstate commerce. Now these limits apply to Federal Law. Since there is no Federal law that requires private merchants to accept cash, I suspect that courts would find no commerce clause argument can apply based on Lopez and Morrison. Additionally, Seminole Tribe v. Florida, 517 U.S. 44 (1996) held that the commerce clause does not give the federal government the power to abrogate the sovereign immunity of the states. Thus, since States have the power to regulate private merchants, a commerce clause challenge to the policy of a private merchant will fail.

Anyway, that's my 15 minute legal analysis and its probably not very good. I think the U.S. Treasury statement is much more authoritative.

**Note: Although I am an attorney, I am not your attorney. Nothing in this post or on this website should be taken as legal advice. If you need legal advice, contact your state's legal services association or bar association who can refer you to an attorney.

Odd's & End's: Today's Interesting Reads

2007-10-29T06:15:00.000-04:00

Who'd have thought that someday we would live in a world where the Red Sox are not just World Series Champions, but have won the World Series twice in the last four years?

When your iPod shouldn't be close to your heart

iPhone: No Cash and only 2 per person

No gift cards either

$831

Windows as the iPhone Limiter

Leopard stalking Microsoft

NBC tells Apple: we can Destroy ourselves, thank you

iPhone Bashing for Fun and Profit

2007-10-29T06:02:00.000-04:00

This blog compares Daring Fireball's post on Apple's fourth quarter earnings with this mess of a post about the iPhone sales numbers as some kind of lazer that cuts throught the iPhone hype. It is simply amazing to me how people like to ignore or discount facts. It should come as no surprise that iPhone bashing is a sure way to get web traffic.

As much as I hate to do it, sometimes you see something that just gets under your skin. So....

The Mobile-Review.com article makes some seriously crazy arguments.

First, that Apple was behind the iPhone unlocking madness:

somebody really wants third-party companies and certain individuals to bypass the iPhones security and share their methods with others. Apple’s rivals, apparently, are not interested in this, why would they want to boost its sales and market shares anyway. So the only party that can actually gain here is Apple itself.

The basis for this ridiculous assertion? That somebody gave George Hotz a new car for hacking the iPhone and, that someone offered $100,000 for a software hack to unlock the iPhone.

The inference Mobile-Review.com makes is that given this large amount of money at issue and since Apple would benefit, Apple had to be behind this iPhone unlocking effort.

Of course, this is just pure BS. A 2 minute Google search uncovers the truth. The iPhone was hacked because folks rightly assumed that there would be a lucrative market for unlocked iPhones in which a SIM card from any cell phone carrier could be used.

Next, Mobile-Review.com argues that Apple, sinister monster that it is, has created to the iPod Touch to get people into the stores only to bait and switch them into the iPhone, all in some nefarious plot to get to the 10 million iPhone sales figure:

And the fact that the Touch is not hyped or promoted like its glamorous sibling should come as no surprise either – those who really need it and know exactly what they want will go for the Touch, and everybody else will be better off with iPhones in their pockets, for it is the company’s main focus.

Ummm. Ok. Well lets see here. Forget the fact that after Apple announced the iPhone, everyone assumed that Apple would eventually release something like the iPod Touch. Forget the fact that Apple is going to make truckloads of cash from selling the iPod Touch this holiday season. Forget the fact that the iPod touch is the future of the iPod family of products. Are people going to be "up-sold" from the iPod Touch to the iPhone? Yes. Is there anything wrong with that? Nope, its a perfectly accepted retail practice (see: Mac Mini). Please tell me Mobile-Review.com that you have something else besides this.

Well, Mobile-Review.com does have something else and its a doozy: Apple wants unlocked iPhones since it knows that in order to get its 10 million sales goal, it will have to sell iPhones to people who do not use AT&T:

Apple has deliberately driven all contracted phones out of its stores, so now it offers only the hardware. This means that the goal (10 million units sold) will be achieved at any cost, even if the company’s partners, carriers in this particular case, will suffer. Apple alone is responsible for the market of illegal iPhones that has already emerged – if they didn’t make it so affordable, it all would be different.

Yes. Of course. That's why Apple is limiting iPhone Sales to 2 per person. And why it has warned everyone that unlocking the iPhone invalidates its warranty. I see everything now - if Apple says No, they really mean Yes, Black is White, Up is Down. Ugh. Come on. Be serious here.

I can't believe that this guy had the nerve to call this hair-brained conspiracy theory a valid counter weight to Daring Fireball's rational analysis. I kept asking myself why. Why would anyone make such a irrational argument? Then I checked the traffic logs on my website.

In the past week, I've made about 1 post per day. But, my best days for traffic were articles that were directly about the iPhone. Anything iPhone drives web traffic. I guess thats why drivel like Mobile-Review.com gets written. iPhone bashing for fun and profit. Ugh.

[Updated: October 30, 2007]

One of the challenges I am struggling with on this site is whether to open up my random thoughts to comments. Due to some bad (i.e. overwhelming spam comments) experiences, have comments turned off, but I am allowing trackbacks. So, today, I got a trackback from ramikayyali.com, who originally linked to the Mobile-Review.com article. Here's a link to his response. I am not sure how to take his response. My original gripe was really with the Mobile-Review.com conspiracy theory and I only peripherally had an issue with the ramikayyali.com post. But, as I see his response, I think he's proving the point I was trying to make - i.e. that bashing Apple or the iPhone is a sure way to drive traffic to your blog:

the reason I linked to such “drivel” is so I can read more responses like Dan’s.

Was I sarcastic? Yes. Was the Mobile-Review.com article "drivel". Yup, in my opinion it was.

I have re-read Rami's original post a number of times and I think I got it right. Rami is making a comparison to the Mobile-Review.com conspiracy theory and the Daring Fireball Tea Leaf reading. I just don't think its a valid (or fair) comparison.

But, like Rami, I'll let my readers decide.

Sox Win!

2007-10-28T21:38:00.000-04:00

I ran from school in 1978 only to have Bucky Bleeping Dent crush my hopes. In 1986, I watched the ball roll behind the bag. Grady Little in 2003. In 2004, I finally got to see the World Championship. Now, 3 years later I get to see another.

Congratulations Red Sox. 2007 World Champions

Odds & Ends: Today's Interesting Reads

2007-10-28T12:05:00.000-04:00

Here's today's interesting reads, smug OS X Leopard user bashing Vista edition (oh, we kid, microsoft!):

Anderson's Razor

Lifehacker's 20 Useful OS X downloads

Visa Sales Down

Six Leopard Hidden Gems

2007-10-26T23:47:00.000-04:00

Well, I've been up most of the night poking around Leopard and have come across some hidden gems:

DASHBOARD MOVIE WIDGET: what the hell was Apple thinking holding this back? It is awesome, and I hardly ever use widgets. Be sure to check it out.

PREVIEW: Good Lord, has preview been beefed up. Try this: take a picture of someone and save it as a jpg. Then open it in preview and use the Extract Shape tool to "carve them out" of the background. Preview is like the cheap person's photoshop now. You can play with the color levels, put text over pictures, crop, flip and adjust. Oh yeah, it does some cool things with PDF's too.

TEXT EDIT: A free word processor. It checks grammar and spelling. It does bullets and outlines. You can make up styles. For 80% of the world, its as good as M$ Word.

WEB CLIP: I check the lottery numbers web page ever day. No more. That strange box next to the reload button in safari, just click it and then "Clip out" a section of an web page that you want you check and is often updated. Ta Da! instant, updating Dashboard widget, no need to launch in the web page browser, just hit F12.

DICTIONARY: Not sexy, but useful. The dictionary has been beefed up with Oxford American Dictionary, a thesaurus and wikipedia. Just highlight a word, control-click and chose dictionary.

ALEX: The new leopard voice is so good its scary sometimes. I have had my mac speak the time since OS X 10.1 but when Alex did it tonight, I thought for sure someone else was in my house at 2 a.m.

There's a ton of other cool things (print preview is very cool now, back to my mac makes the $99 dot mac worth the cost, quick look is very handy, spotlight searching is beefed up and faster, there's a ton of hi-resolution pictures of mac hardware hidden in one of the library folders) but these are 6 things that I had either forgotten about or didn't know about. Let me know if you find any other hidden gems.

Five Minute Leopard Install Review

2007-10-26T18:04:00.000-04:00

Still in the process of getting everything up and running since I did an erase and install, but here are my first impressions:

1. Snappy.

2. Make sure you disable Airport before you boot the Leopard install disk. With Airport on, it did not see my laptop's hard disk.

3. File icons are flat, not sure if I like that, especially since its harder to distinguish between them.

4. What happened to Airport Disc Utility?

5. No Time Machine over Airport? I actually saw several websites note this. Hopefully Apple will fix this with an update down the line. Kind of takes the ooomph out of Airport Discs when your primary machine is a laptop (I mean who wants to be tethered to a USB disc all the time?).

6. Started install at 7 p.m., got the welcome video a little over 1 hr later (note that I let the install verify the install disk which took about 30 minutes).

7. Still getting things back into shape. I tried to cut corners by not doing a full hard disk back up (just applications and the user folder since I keep my documents, movies and iTunes and iPhoto libraries on an Airport Disc).

Probably could have saved time by doing an archive and install, but I wanted a fresh start. This messed me up with my calendars and mail accounts. Got the calendars working pretty easily. Still working on the mailboxes and hoping that when I sync iPhone my contacts will fill in. Also looks like some of my applications need to have the serial numbers put back in.

8. Some old applications are showing the generic OS X icon in the finder. I'm hoping that disc utility will fix that.

9. Dock on the right will show flat (which is good) and in 3D when it is on the bottom.

10. Like the new Leopard voice.

Well, in the time it took me to write this, the last of my files have copied onto my laptop. Looks like I have a bit of clean-up and then I'll need to run disk utility to repair permissions and I should be good to go.

Welcome to Leopard everyone!

Odds & Ends: Today's Interesting Reads

2007-10-26T06:19:00.000-04:00

Right now, somewhere in central New Jersey there is a FedEx truck. On that truck is a package with my name on it. Inside that package is Apple's Big Cat. Until it arrives, here's today's interesting reads:

Leopard Hidden Gems

Macworld's Leopard Review
Leopard Install Tips

What to do Before and After installing Leopard

iTunes Needs Movie Rentals

2007-10-26T05:42:00.000-04:00

With the exception of the iPod Shuffle, all of Apple's iPods and the iPhone support video playback. Yet, the movie and TV sections of the iTunes store have become stagnant with little new content. While iTunes has millions of songs for sale, it has less than 1,000 movies. The Apple TV, Apple's "hobby", appears to be going nowhere. Apple needs to do something soon to step up its video content market. But what?

Well one of the things Apple seems to be doing is to go after short films. But this is not a viable long-term solution. Apple needs video content soon to help fill up all of those iPods and iPhones that will end up in stockings this Christmas. Many of those iPods are going to be replacing ones that can't play video. Come the end of January, unless Apple has something up its sleeve, people are going to start asking why there's no content.

Apple's position seems to be that the iTunes movie and TV sections are still young:

“We’re really at the beginning stage in the movie space,” said Eddy Cue, Apple’s vice president for iTunes, adding that iTunes had sold more than four million movie downloads...but still had fewer than 1,000 titles for sale.

But this is simply not a reasonable argument when all of your products support video playback.

To further put the heat on Apple, the infamous NBC-Apple feud has apparently ended badly for Apple as talks between NBC-Universal have broken down. Thus, come December 1, all NBC shows, many of which are iTunes top sellers, will be pulled from iTunes.

Unlike the music business, Movie and TV producers seem to have Apple's number:

NBC Universal spokesman Cory Shields said his company's programs help drive the sales of iPods. "The iPod is only as good as the content on it," he said.

I suspect NBC's challenge to iTunes will eventually fail. Although (unlike the music business), NBC does not get any significant portion of its revenue from iTunes sales, it does get buzz among the people it most wants to attract with its shows. Not to offer it on the iTunes store is just foolish. But, the fact that NBC can even think it is possible to challenge Apple and the reason Apple's movie selection is so meager can probably be pinned on one person: David Porter of Wal-Mart.

It seems Mr. Porter has clubbed the movie studios into submission in order to protect Wal-Mart's multi-billion dollars in DVD sales. As a result, digital movie sales are stuck in the mud with limited selection and insistence by the studios on high prices and ridiculous digital rights management (DRM) restrictions.

But there may be a way out for Apple: Movie Rentals.

Apparently studios that had been reluctant to make their digital content available for sale through Apple are considerably more enthusiastic about video-on-demand (VOD) rentals because they wouldn't compete directly with Hollywood's own DVD sales operations.

There has been some speculation that Apple will soon be ready to roll out movie rentals. If true, then expect Movie rentals to be the main attraction at January's Macworld.

Leopard Key to iPhone Enhancements

2007-10-25T08:52:00.000-04:00

With the release tomorrow of Mac OS X Leopard, I expect that the iPhone will finally "come home" to the OS it was designed to operate with. Consequently, over the next couple of months iPhone users should see a significant increase in the iPhone's capabilities.

It has been argued, correctly I think, that the iPhone is a Leopard device and needs the new technology of Leopard to reach its maximum potential. With Leopard's release, I expect that the iPhone firmware is due for an update - probably within the next 2 weeks.

We should see, at a minimum, an update to the iPhone's mail and calendar applications to support the enhancements Leopard makes in those applications and, maybe some other goodies.

For mail, expect Leopard to allow you synchronize the iPhone Notes application (edit and start new notes on the desktop that are then uploaded to iPhone on the next sync). I imagine the iPhone will also get its missing To-Do app to integrate with Leopards enhanced To-Dos.

On the Calendar side, I suspect that the iPhone calendar app already supports Apple's new iCal Server and the CalDAV format but if it doesn't yet, the next iPhone software update will take care of that.

I also suspect that we will finally see iChat for the iPhone sometime soon.

However, the biggest enhancements the iPhone will see are a direct result of Apple's confirmation that it will release a Third-Party Developer Software Development Kit (SDK) to allow new applications on the iPhone. Despite all of the gnashing of teeth about the iPhone's lack of a real development kit for third party software developers, I had always assumed that Apple would eventually open up the iPhone for its developers. Steve Jobs' announcement that a SDK will be released in Febuary caused much rejoicing in the Mac development community.

The release of Leopard also gives a glimpse of what kind of SDK Apple will provide. For example, Core Animation is already known to be a part of the iPhone software and it is expected that some of Leopard's security features were put into OS X specifically for iPhone. As folks begin to unlock the secrets of Leopard in the next few months, expect that some of those hidden features will become part of the iPhone.

One of the overlooked things that Apple has done in the past couple of weeks is to create a new section of their developer web site geared specifically to the iPhone. They've also given registered developers access to recorded video from the iPhone tech talks Apple scheduled in various major cities a few months ago. The new iPhone development site should be a hub of activity over the next couple of months.

Now, I suspect the iPhone development environment will be a separete or unique mode of XCode (or quite possibly an enhancement to Dashcode) and that Apple will build into the development tool the security it needs to support 3rd party iPhone development. Once that new tool is in developers hands (and developers will probably get it at or soon after January's Macworld Conference), iPhone users should begin to see new iPhone applications roll out a a nice pace.

The next couple of months should be an exciting time for iPhone users.

With Leopard's release iPhone users should see an software update in the next couple of weeks (since Apple will want to put it out before the holiday buying season starts in earnest), and probably one right after Macworld in January as Third-Party developers begin to crank out new iPhone applications. Let the fun begin!

Odds & Ends: Today's Interesting Reads

2007-10-25T07:14:00.000-04:00

One day before the Leopard release, so today's odds & ends provides a roundup of Leopard reviews:

Leopard is one cool cat

Leopard beats Vista

Leopard's bright new spots

Leopard spot on

Classic World Series Moments: I ain't got my Taco

2007-10-24T22:03:00.000-04:00

Here's a conversation, caught by the TV crew and played on the broadcast, from game 1 of the 2007 World Series between Royce Clayton and Coco Crisp of the Red Sox about Taco Bell's free taco promotion.

Royce: You said if somebody steals a base in the World Series...

Coco: The first time somebody steals a base... Taco Bell is gonna give one taco... to everybody in America.

Royce: To everybody what?

Coco: In America.

Royce: That day?

Coco: I dunno... [unintelligible]

Royce: What the hell you talkin' bout? It's gotta be that day.

Coco: But there's only like two hours left in the day at that point.

Royce: So what? That's what the deal has to be. How you gonna come in and say, "I ain't got my taco!" You could go to every Taco Bell in the world and say that. "I didn't get my taco!" How they gonna know?

So Royce, on the unlikely event you check my blog, here's the official rules:

During any game of the 2007 World Series, Taco Bell will offer the prize identified below for ANY "stolen base."
For purposes of this event, an eligible "stolen base" is defined as a base stolen during regulation or extra innings play and is subject to the determination/designation of the official Major League Baseball scorekeeper as an official stolen base.
If a base is stolen during regulation or extra innings play by any player for either team, Taco Bell will offer every person in the U.S. the opportunity to obtain one (1) free Crunchy Seasoned Beef Taco
Only one (1) Free Taco will be permitted per person, regardless of how many eligible bases are stolen during the Games.
This offer is open to legal residents of the fifty (50) United States and the District of Columbia only.
Eligible consumers can obtain their free Crunchy Seasoned Beef Taco on Tuesday, October 30, 2007 (if base is stolen in Games 1 or 2) OR November 6, 2007 (if base is stolen in Games 3-7).
To obtain the Free Taco, consumers must visit any participating Taco Bell® restaurant in one of the fifty (50) the United States or District of Columbia between 2:00 p.m. and 5:00 p.m. (local time) on the Redemption Date only and request a Free Crunchy Seasoned Beef Taco.
Limit one (1) Free Crunchy Seasoned Beef Taco per person.

So, Royce, I hope that clarifies things for you. Oh, I almost forgot. You don't get a taco:

MLB Entities and employees thereof are ineligible.

And, the "I ain't got my taco" excuse might not work:

Participating Taco Bell restaurant manager reserves the right to deny Free Taco to any person he/she reasonably believes has already received a Free Taco or has engaged in any other fraudulent activity.

So, hopefully Coco will steal a base in game 2 so we can all get our free tacos.

[UPDATED 10/25/2007: Jacoby Ellsbury, the Red Sox rookie center fielder, just stole 2nd base and earned everyone a free taco]

Happy (belated) Birthday iPod

2007-10-24T19:59:00.000-04:00

I missed this yesterday - the iPod's 6th Birthday.

I remember watching this webcast. It was held, I believe, in Apple's (small) town hall auditorium and everybody and their brother knew that Apple's big secret was going to be an MP3 player. Looking back now is how much folks hated it. It was mac only. It was expensive ($399 for 5GB). The overall reaction from the tech pundits (and just about everyone else) was that the iPod was not a game changer.

Pretty funny. I still have my original 5 GB iPod and it still works like a charm. One of its coolest things about that 1st generation iPod? It came sticker on it with the words "Don't Steal Music".

Re-live the birth:

Odds & Ends: Today's Interesting Reads

2007-10-24T15:32:00.000-04:00

Odds & Ends for October 24, 2007:

Behind Apple's Money Machine

Around the U.S.A. with only an iPhone

iPhone's impact on web design

Gmail goes IMAP

Fake Steve loves the Sox

Which reminds me, Go SOX!!!!

Odds & Ends: Today's Interesting Reads

2007-10-23T11:50:00.000-04:00

From time to time, I'll post some interesting links for your enjoyment:

Apple Most Valuable Computer Company in the World

How to upgrade to Leopard

Guide to Installing Leopard on Day One

Behind the iPhone Sales Numbers

Daring Fireball on why the Mac is Back

Hell froze over

Apple is in the Money. Time to Spend Some.

2007-10-23T07:23:00.000-04:00

If you don't know, Apple released its quarterly earnings yesterday. The only word to describe it is blowout.

Lets recap the highlights:

2,164,000 Macs Sold (up 34% from the same quarter last year)

10,200,000 iPods Sold (up 17% from the same quarter last year)

1,119,000 iPhone sold (For a total to date of 1,389,000 phones sold.

Remember that the iPhone started selling with a couple of days left in last quarter)

All this leads to:

Revenue of $6.22 billion

Net profit of $904 million (up 67% from the same quarter last year)

Wow. If you have not followed Apple in the past, let me just tell you that these numbers are just staggering for a quarter.

Consequently, Apple stock is up and is helping to drive the stock market to early gains today. Add into the fact that just 7 years ago Apple's future was seriously in doubt and you can see how far Apple has come.

One of the things I like to track is how much cash Apple has on hand. Apple has always held alot of cash, although they never seem to spend it. A quick check of Apple's 4th quarter press release archive quickly turned up the following:

2007: $15.4 billion in cash on hand

2006: $10 billion in cash on hand

2003: $4.3 billion in cash on hand

So in four years they have tripled their nest egg. Thats alot of money. Remember (and this is a simplification) this is money Apple has just sitting in the bank. The question is what is Apple going to do with it?

Now, modern companies like to keep alot of cash. For comparison, Apple's $15 billion cash on hand is about half of what Microsoft has on hand. However, Apple's market capitalization, which is now bigger than IBM's ($155 Billion), is only about one third of Microsoft's (Apple Market Cap = $161 billion, Microsoft Market Cap = $289 Billion). What this tells me is that it is time for Apple to spend some of this cash, either by buying back shares (probably unlikely) or by buying some smaller companies.

But who? How about Universal Music and/or NBC (if General Electric and Vivendi were willing to sell. Back in 2003 there was a rumor Apple & Vivendi were in talks for Apple to buy Universal). An Apple purchase of one or both of these properties would help shore up the current challenge to Apple's iTunes business.

Of course, that kind of purchase would probably empty Apple's cash coffer as well as tax Apple's stock.

How about something a bit smaller but still important to Apple's iTunes business? Akamai who Apple uses to help deliver iTunes content? Akamai could be bought by Apple and they would still have billions in cash left over. Or, how about Blockbuster Video or NetFlix? Apple could by one or even both of them for only a small portion of their cash reserves and energize Apple's stalled distribution of digital movies (as well as Apple TV).

I am not a stock analyst so I'm just throwing this up as food for thought. But I do think that it is high time Apple spend some of its money. They run a really tight ship financially at Apple, but I don't know why they would want this kind of cash on hand.

The Real iPhone Revolution - iPhone in OS X

2007-10-22T05:37:00.000-04:00

On the brink of Apple releasing its quarterly earnings today and the long awaited OS X Leopard on Friday, the New York Times has an article today on the increase in Mac marketshare. The article quotes Steve Jobs as saying that Mac users should expect an OS upgrade every 12 to 18 months (which is consistant with Apple's past OS X practice and, probably not too bad to Apple's bottom line at $129 a pop).

But, the real news burried at the bottom of the article is this comment by Jobs:

Mr. Jobs said he was struck by the success of the multitouch interface that is at the heart of the iPhone version of the OS X. This allows a user to touch the screen at more than one point to zoom in on a portion of a photo, for example.“People don’t understand that we’ve invented a new class of interface,” he said.He contrasted it with stylus interfaces, like the approach Microsoft took with its tablet computer. That interface is not so different from what most computers have been using since the mid-1980s.In contrast, Mr. Jobs said that multitouch drastically simplified the process of controlling a computer.There are no “verbs” in the iPhone interface, he said, alluding to the way a standard mouse or stylus system works. In those systems, users select an object, like a photo, and then separately select an action, or “verb,” to do something to it.The Apple development team worried constantly that the approach might fail during the years they were creating the iPhone, he said.“We all had that Garry Trudeau cartoon that poked fun at the Newton in the back of our minds,” he said, citing Doonesbury comic strips that mocked an Apple handwriting-recognition system in 1993. “This thing had to work.”

Why is this so important? Everyone and their brother has assumed that the iPhone interface would eventually make its way to the iPod and, of course, it did. But, I suspect Apple is thinking beyond the iPod product line. There has been spectualtion here and there that Apple would port the touch interface to MacBook laptops (most likely via a touch trackpad) as well as some speculation that Apple's desktops could use a touch interface (which Jobs has rightly rejected as unworkable in the current form factor - try holding your arm up to your monitor for 5 minutes). But Jobs explaination should give you and idea to the furture of the Mac OS X interface - "verbs" v "nouns."

I suspect that over the next 2 years we are going to see more "noun" type interfaces from Apple in OS X, with or without a touch input mechanism. More "one click" or "one touch" standalone widgets that do one thing only. Don't forget that the iPhone was in development for years at Apple and its "culture" is most likely entrenched at the stakeholder level of Apple. Thus, I suspect that there will be more "iPhone in OS X" over the next couple of years rather than more "OS X in the iPhone."

Want some evidence? How about Widgets? Or Coverflow (now there's an interface that works amazingly well on the iPhone and is good, yet not as good, in iTunes. And, of course, OS X Leopard will have coverflow everywhere). Or how about iMovie 08 (which amazingly lost features from its previous version)? I submit that all of these Apple "innovations" were born out of, or refined by, the iPhone interface work.

AT&T's Biggest Seller = iPhone

2007-10-19T05:35:00.002-04:00

Not only is the iPhone, AT&T's biggest seller , it looks like it is going to be the biggest selling phone in the US:

The researchers reckon over 1.1 million iPhones were sold in the third quarter, meaning Apple's sold 1.325 million of the devices since the iPhone shipped in the US alone.

"The iPhone has become AT&T's top selling device, commanding some 13 per cent of AT&T's overall handset sales, and the fourth top selling handset in the US market," said Barry Gilbert, vice president of the Strategy Analytics BuyerTRAX programs.

He added: "Although the iPhone hasn't had an expansionary impact in the market, the iPhone has quickly assumed a leading market share position and raised the ante for smart devices. The sales trajectory we are observing with the iPhone could make it the top selling device in the US over the next 1-2 quarters."

Not bad...kinda makes that iPhone SDK announcement look like an interesting opportunity for software developers.

AT&T's Biggest Seller = iPhone

2007-10-19T05:35:00.001-04:00

Not only is the iPhone, AT&T's biggest seller , it looks like it is going to be the biggest selling phone in the US:

The researchers reckon over 1.1 million iPhones were sold in the third quarter, meaning Apple's sold 1.325 million of the devices since the iPhone shipped in the US alone.

"The iPhone has become AT&T's top selling device, commanding some 13 per cent of AT&T's overall handset sales, and the fourth top selling handset in the US market," said Barry Gilbert, vice president of the Strategy Analytics BuyerTRAX programs.

He added: "Although the iPhone hasn't had an expansionary impact in the market, the iPhone has quickly assumed a leading market share position and raised the ante for smart devices. The sales trajectory we are observing with the iPhone could make it the top selling device in the US over the next 1-2 quarters."

Not bad...kinda makes that iPhone SDK announcement look like an interesting opportunity for software developers.

AT&T's Biggest Seller = iPhone

2007-10-19T05:35:00.000-04:00

Not only is the iPhone, AT&T's biggest seller , it looks like it is going to be the biggest selling phone in the US:

The researchers reckon over 1.1 million iPhones were sold in the third quarter, meaning Apple's sold 1.325 million of the devices since the iPhone shipped in the US alone.

"The iPhone has become AT&T's top selling device, commanding some 13 per cent of AT&T's overall handset sales, and the fourth top selling handset in the US market," said Barry Gilbert, vice president of the Strategy Analytics BuyerTRAX programs.

He added: "Although the iPhone hasn't had an expansionary impact in the market, the iPhone has quickly assumed a leading market share position and raised the ante for smart devices. The sales trajectory we are observing with the iPhone could make it the top selling device in the US over the next 1-2 quarters."

Not bad...kinda makes that iPhone SDK announcement look like an interesting opportunity for software developers.