iTunes Needs Movie Rentals

With the exception of the iPod Shuffle, all of Apple's iPods and the iPhone support video playback. Yet, the movie and TV sections of the iTunes store have become stagnant with little new content. While iTunes has millions of songs for sale, it has less than 1,000 movies. The Apple TV, Apple's "hobby", appears to be going nowhere. Apple needs to do something soon to step up its video content market. But what? 

Well one of the things Apple seems to be doing is to go after short films. But this is not a viable long-term solution. Apple needs video content soon to help fill up all of those iPods and iPhones that will end up in stockings this Christmas. Many of those iPods are going to be replacing ones that can't play video. Come the end of January, unless Apple has something up its sleeve, people are going to start asking why there's no content. 

Apple's position seems to be that the iTunes movie and TV sections are still young:

“We’re really at the beginning stage in the movie space,” said Eddy Cue, Apple’s vice president for iTunes, adding that iTunes had sold more than four million movie downloads...but still had fewer than 1,000 titles for sale.

But this is simply not a reasonable argument when all of your products support video playback.

To further put the heat on Apple, the infamous NBC-Apple feud has apparently ended badly for Apple as talks between NBC-Universal have broken down. Thus, come December 1, all NBC shows, many of which are iTunes top sellers, will be pulled from iTunes.

Unlike the music business, Movie and TV producers seem to have Apple's number:

NBC Universal spokesman Cory Shields said his company's programs help drive the sales of iPods. "The iPod is only as good as the content on it," he said.

I suspect NBC's challenge to iTunes will eventually fail. Although (unlike the music business), NBC does not get any significant portion of its revenue from iTunes sales, it does get buzz among the people it most wants to attract with its shows. Not to offer it on the iTunes store is just foolish. But, the fact that NBC can even think it is possible to challenge Apple and the reason Apple's movie selection is so meager can probably be pinned on one person: David Porter of Wal-Mart. 

It seems Mr. Porter has clubbed the movie studios into submission in order to protect Wal-Mart's multi-billion dollars in DVD sales. As a result, digital movie sales are stuck in the mud with limited selection and insistence by the studios on high prices and ridiculous digital rights management (DRM) restrictions. 

But there may be a way out for Apple: Movie Rentals.

Apparently studios that had been reluctant to make their digital content available for sale through Apple are considerably more enthusiastic about video-on-demand (VOD) rentals because they wouldn't compete directly with Hollywood's own DVD sales operations.

There has been some speculation that Apple will soon be ready to roll out movie rentals. If true, then expect Movie rentals to be the main attraction at January's Macworld.

Leopard Key to iPhone Enhancements

With the release tomorrow of Mac OS X Leopard, I expect that the iPhone will finally "come home" to the OS it was designed to operate with. Consequently, over the next couple of months iPhone users should see a significant increase in the iPhone's capabilities.

It has been argued, correctly I think, that the iPhone is a Leopard device and needs the new technology of Leopard to reach its maximum potential. With Leopard's release, I expect that the iPhone firmware is due for an update - probably within the next 2 weeks. 

We should see, at a minimum, an update to the iPhone's mail and calendar applications to support the enhancements Leopard makes in those applications and, maybe some other goodies. 

For mail, expect Leopard to allow you synchronize the iPhone Notes application (edit and start new notes on the desktop that are then uploaded to iPhone on the next sync). I imagine the iPhone will also get its missing To-Do app to integrate with Leopards enhanced To-Dos.

On the Calendar side, I suspect that the iPhone calendar app already supports Apple's new iCal Server and the CalDAV format but if it doesn't yet, the next iPhone software update will take care of that.

I also suspect that we will finally see iChat for the iPhone sometime soon. 

However, the biggest enhancements the iPhone will see are a direct result of Apple's confirmation that it will release a Third-Party Developer Software Development Kit (SDK) to allow new applications on the iPhone. Despite all of the gnashing of teeth about the iPhone's lack of a real development kit for third party software developers, I had always assumed that Apple would eventually open up the iPhone for its developers. Steve Jobs' announcement that a SDK will be released in Febuary caused much rejoicing in the Mac development community.
 

The release of Leopard also gives a glimpse of what kind of SDK Apple will provide. For example, Core Animation is already known to be a part of the iPhone software and it is expected that some of Leopard's security features were put into OS X specifically for iPhone. As folks begin to unlock the secrets of Leopard in the next few months, expect that some of those hidden features will become part of the iPhone. 

One of the overlooked things that Apple has done in the past couple of weeks is to create a new section of their developer web site geared specifically to the iPhone. They've also given registered developers access to recorded video from the iPhone tech talks Apple scheduled in various major cities a few months ago. The new iPhone development site should be a hub of activity over the next couple of months. 

Now, I suspect the iPhone development environment will be a separete or unique mode of XCode (or quite possibly an enhancement to Dashcode) and that Apple will build into the development tool the security it needs to support 3rd party iPhone development. Once that new tool is in developers hands (and developers will probably get it at or soon after January's Macworld Conference), iPhone users should begin to see new iPhone applications roll out a a nice pace.

The next couple of months should be an exciting time for iPhone users. 

With Leopard's release iPhone users should see an software update in the next couple of weeks (since Apple will want to put it out before the holiday buying season starts in earnest), and probably one right after Macworld in January as Third-Party developers begin to crank out new iPhone applications. Let the fun begin!

Odds & Ends: Today's Interesting Reads

One day before the Leopard release, so today's odds & ends provides a roundup of Leopard reviews:

Leopard is one cool cat

Leopard beats Vista

Leopard's bright new spots

Leopard spot on

Classic World Series Moments: I ain't got my Taco

Here's a conversation, caught by the TV crew and played on the broadcast, from game 1 of the 2007 World Series between Royce Clayton and Coco Crisp of the Red Sox about Taco Bell's free taco promotion.

Royce: You said if somebody steals a base in the World Series... 

Coco: The first time somebody steals a base... Taco Bell is gonna give one taco... to everybody in America. 

Royce: To everybody what? 

Coco: In America. 

Royce: That day? 

Coco: I dunno... [unintelligible] 

Royce: What the hell you talkin' bout? It's gotta be that day. 

Coco: But there's only like two hours left in the day at that point. 

Royce: So what? That's what the deal has to be. How you gonna come in and say, "I ain't got my taco!" You could go to every Taco Bell in the world and say that. "I didn't get my taco!" How they gonna know?

So Royce, on the unlikely event you check my blog, here's the official rules:

During any game of the 2007 World Series, Taco Bell will offer the prize identified below for ANY "stolen base."
For purposes of this event, an eligible "stolen base" is defined as a base stolen during regulation or extra innings play and is subject to the determination/designation of the official Major League Baseball scorekeeper as an official stolen base.
If a base is stolen during regulation or extra innings play by any player for either team, Taco Bell will offer every person in the U.S. the opportunity to obtain one (1) free Crunchy Seasoned Beef Taco
Only one (1) Free Taco will be permitted per person, regardless of how many eligible bases are stolen during the Games.
This offer is open to legal residents of the fifty (50) United States and the District of Columbia only.
Eligible consumers can obtain their free Crunchy Seasoned Beef Taco on Tuesday, October 30, 2007 (if base is stolen in Games 1 or 2) OR November 6, 2007 (if base is stolen in Games 3-7).
To obtain the Free Taco, consumers must visit any participating Taco Bell® restaurant in one of the fifty (50) the United States or District of Columbia between 2:00 p.m. and 5:00 p.m. (local time) on the Redemption Date only and request a Free Crunchy Seasoned Beef Taco.
Limit one (1) Free Crunchy Seasoned Beef Taco per person.

So, Royce, I hope that clarifies things for you. Oh, I almost forgot. You don't get a taco:

MLB Entities and employees thereof are ineligible.

And, the "I ain't got my taco" excuse might not work:

Participating Taco Bell restaurant manager reserves the right to deny Free Taco to any person he/she reasonably believes has already received a Free Taco or has engaged in any other fraudulent activity.

So, hopefully Coco will steal a base in game 2 so we can all get our free tacos. 

[UPDATED 10/25/2007: Jacoby Ellsbury, the Red Sox rookie center fielder, just stole 2nd base and earned everyone a free taco]

Happy (belated) Birthday iPod

I missed this yesterday - the iPod's 6th Birthday.

I remember watching this webcast. It was held, I believe, in Apple's (small) town hall auditorium and everybody and their brother knew that Apple's big secret was going to be an MP3 player. Looking back now is how much folks hated it. It was mac only. It was expensive ($399 for 5GB). The overall reaction from the tech pundits (and just about everyone else) was that the iPod was not a game changer.

Pretty funny. I still have my original 5 GB iPod and it still works like a charm. One of its coolest things about that 1st generation iPod? It came sticker on it with the words "Don't Steal Music".

Re-live the birth:

Odds & Ends: Today's Interesting Reads

Odds & Ends for October 24, 2007:

Behind Apple's Money Machine

Around the U.S.A. with only an iPhone

iPhone's impact on web design

Gmail goes IMAP

Fake Steve loves the Sox

Which reminds me, Go SOX!!!!

Odds & Ends: Today's Interesting Reads

From time to time, I'll post some interesting links for your enjoyment:

Apple Most Valuable Computer Company in the World

How to upgrade to Leopard

Guide to Installing Leopard on Day One

Behind the iPhone Sales Numbers

Daring Fireball on why the Mac is Back

Hell froze over

Apple is in the Money. Time to Spend Some.

If you don't know, Apple released its quarterly earnings yesterday. The only word to describe it is blowout. 

Lets recap the highlights: 

2,164,000 Macs Sold (up 34% from the same quarter last year) 

10,200,000 iPods Sold (up 17% from the same quarter last year) 

1,119,000 iPhone sold (For a total to date of 1,389,000 phones sold. 

Remember that the iPhone started selling with a couple of days left in last quarter)

All this leads to: 

Revenue of $6.22 billion 

Net profit of $904 million (up 67% from the same quarter last year) 

Wow. If you have not followed Apple in the past, let me just tell you that these numbers are just staggering for a quarter. 

Consequently, Apple stock is up and is helping to drive the stock market to early gains today. Add into the fact that just 7 years ago Apple's future was seriously in doubt and you can see how far Apple has come. 

One of the things I like to track is how much cash Apple has on hand. Apple has always held alot of cash, although they never seem to spend it. A quick check of Apple's 4th quarter press release archive quickly turned up the following: 

2007: $15.4 billion in cash on hand 

2006: $10 billion in cash on hand 

2003: $4.3 billion in cash on hand 

So in four years they have tripled their nest egg. Thats alot of money. Remember (and this is a simplification) this is money Apple has just sitting in the bank. The question is what is Apple going to do with it? 

Now, modern companies like to keep alot of cash. For comparison, Apple's $15 billion cash on hand is about half of what Microsoft has on hand. However, Apple's market capitalization, which is now bigger than IBM's ($155 Billion), is only about one third of Microsoft's (Apple Market Cap = $161 billion, Microsoft Market Cap = $289 Billion). What this tells me is that it is time for Apple to spend some of this cash, either by buying back shares (probably unlikely) or by buying some smaller companies. 

But who? How about Universal Music and/or NBC (if General Electric and Vivendi were willing to sell. Back in 2003 there was a rumor Apple & Vivendi were in talks for Apple to buy Universal). An Apple purchase of one or both of these properties would help shore up the current challenge to Apple's iTunes business.

Of course, that kind of purchase would probably empty Apple's cash coffer as well as tax Apple's stock. 

How about something a bit smaller but still important to Apple's iTunes business? Akamai who Apple uses to help deliver iTunes content? Akamai could be bought by Apple and they would still have billions in cash left over. Or, how about Blockbuster Video or NetFlix? Apple could by one or even both of them for only a small portion of their cash reserves and energize Apple's stalled distribution of digital movies (as well as Apple TV).

I am not a stock analyst so I'm just throwing this up as food for thought. But I do think that it is high time Apple spend some of its money. They run a really tight ship financially at Apple, but I don't know why they would want this kind of cash on hand.

The Real iPhone Revolution - iPhone in OS X

On the brink of Apple releasing its quarterly earnings today and the long awaited OS X Leopard on Friday, the New York Times has an article today on the increase in Mac marketshare. The article quotes Steve Jobs as saying that Mac users should expect an OS upgrade every 12 to 18 months (which is consistant with Apple's past OS X practice and, probably not too bad to Apple's bottom line at $129 a pop).

But, the real news burried at the bottom of the article is this comment by Jobs:

Mr. Jobs said he was struck by the success of the multitouch interface that is at the heart of the iPhone version of the OS X. This allows a user to touch the screen at more than one point to zoom in on a portion of a photo, for example.“People don’t understand that we’ve invented a new class of interface,” he said.He contrasted it with stylus interfaces, like the approach Microsoft took with its tablet computer. That interface is not so different from what most computers have been using since the mid-1980s.In contrast, Mr. Jobs said that multitouch drastically simplified the process of controlling a computer.There are no “verbs” in the iPhone interface, he said, alluding to the way a standard mouse or stylus system works. In those systems, users select an object, like a photo, and then separately select an action, or “verb,” to do something to it.The Apple development team worried constantly that the approach might fail during the years they were creating the iPhone, he said.“We all had that Garry Trudeau cartoon that poked fun at the Newton in the back of our minds,” he said, citing Doonesbury comic strips that mocked an Apple handwriting-recognition system in 1993. “This thing had to work.” 

Why is this so important? Everyone and their brother has assumed that the iPhone interface would eventually make its way to the iPod and, of course, it did. But, I suspect Apple is thinking beyond the iPod product line. There has been spectualtion here and there that Apple would port the touch interface to MacBook laptops (most likely via a touch trackpad) as well as some speculation that Apple's desktops could use a touch interface (which Jobs has rightly rejected as unworkable in the current form factor - try holding your arm up to your monitor for 5 minutes). But Jobs explaination should give you and idea to the furture of the Mac OS X interface - "verbs" v "nouns."

I suspect that over the next 2 years we are going to see more "noun" type interfaces from Apple in OS X, with or without a touch input mechanism. More "one click" or "one touch" standalone widgets that do one thing only. Don't forget that the iPhone was in development for years at Apple and its "culture" is most likely entrenched at the stakeholder level of Apple. Thus, I suspect that there will be more "iPhone in OS X" over the next couple of years rather than more "OS X in the iPhone."

Want some evidence? How about Widgets? Or Coverflow (now there's an interface that works amazingly well on the iPhone and is good, yet not as good, in iTunes. And, of course, OS X Leopard will have coverflow everywhere). Or how about iMovie 08 (which amazingly lost features from its previous version)? I submit that all of these Apple "innovations" were born out of, or refined by, the iPhone interface work.

AT&T's Biggest Seller = iPhone

Not only is the iPhone, AT&T's biggest seller , it looks like it is going to be the biggest selling phone in the US:

The researchers reckon over 1.1 million iPhones were sold in the third quarter, meaning Apple's sold 1.325 million of the devices since the iPhone shipped in the US alone.

"The iPhone has become AT&T's top selling device, commanding some 13 per cent of AT&T's overall handset sales, and the fourth top selling handset in the US market," said Barry Gilbert, vice president of the Strategy Analytics BuyerTRAX programs.

He added: "Although the iPhone hasn't had an expansionary impact in the market, the iPhone has quickly assumed a leading market share position and raised the ante for smart devices. The sales trajectory we are observing with the iPhone could make it the top selling device in the US over the next 1-2 quarters."

Not bad...kinda makes that iPhone SDK announcement look like an interesting opportunity for software developers.

AT&T's Biggest Seller = iPhone

Not only is the iPhone, AT&T's biggest seller , it looks like it is going to be the biggest selling phone in the US:

The researchers reckon over 1.1 million iPhones were sold in the third quarter, meaning Apple's sold 1.325 million of the devices since the iPhone shipped in the US alone.

"The iPhone has become AT&T's top selling device, commanding some 13 per cent of AT&T's overall handset sales, and the fourth top selling handset in the US market," said Barry Gilbert, vice president of the Strategy Analytics BuyerTRAX programs.

He added: "Although the iPhone hasn't had an expansionary impact in the market, the iPhone has quickly assumed a leading market share position and raised the ante for smart devices. The sales trajectory we are observing with the iPhone could make it the top selling device in the US over the next 1-2 quarters."

Not bad...kinda makes that iPhone SDK announcement look like an interesting opportunity for software developers.

AT&T's Biggest Seller = iPhone

Not only is the iPhone, AT&T's biggest seller , it looks like it is going to be the biggest selling phone in the US:

The researchers reckon over 1.1 million iPhones were sold in the third quarter, meaning Apple's sold 1.325 million of the devices since the iPhone shipped in the US alone.

"The iPhone has become AT&T's top selling device, commanding some 13 per cent of AT&T's overall handset sales, and the fourth top selling handset in the US market," said Barry Gilbert, vice president of the Strategy Analytics BuyerTRAX programs.

He added: "Although the iPhone hasn't had an expansionary impact in the market, the iPhone has quickly assumed a leading market share position and raised the ante for smart devices. The sales trajectory we are observing with the iPhone could make it the top selling device in the US over the next 1-2 quarters."

Not bad...kinda makes that iPhone SDK announcement look like an interesting opportunity for software developers.

Birdflubreakingnews.com

Birdflubreakingnews.com is an excellent source of all H5N1 news and a really well done web site. Please check it out.

Birdflubreakingnews.com

Birdflubreakingnews.com is an excellent source of all H5N1 news and a really well done web site. Please check it out.

Is iTunes doomed?

I don't think so and neither does Ivan Askwith at Slate.

10/26/2007: The Cat's out of The Bag

After a long wait, Apple has finally announced that on October 26, 2007, Mac OS X (Leopard) will be released. While I am sure there will be long lines at all the Apple stores that night, let me make a plug for ordering via Amazon.com and supporting this blog:

And the Family Pack:

The iPhone Cometh

I tried to stay away from all the hype regarding the iPhone.

Unfortunately, I could not resist and finally got my iPhone over the weekend.

Luckily, I was able to hold off long enough to avoid the $200 early adopted tax.

Bird Flu Spread To Date

MSNBC has a really nice flash animation showing the spread of Bird flu across the world from December 2003 to October 2, 2007.

I can't recommend the BBC program on Bird Flu I posted the other day highly enough. A couple of the key takeaways from that show:

1. It is only a question of when, not if, Bird Flu is coming.
2. Once H5N5 mutates so it can be transmitted human to human, it will take 3 months to spread across the entire country. Expect the pandemic to hit in waves that last for about 3 - 5 months.
3. There is very little the government is going to do - you are on your own.
4. Plan ahead - you need to be able to isolate yourself as much as possible from others. Prepare to teach your kids at home, chart family members’ blood types and allergies and find out in advance if you will be able to work from your house.
5. Be Prepared - when the pandemic hits, you need food, water and medicine. You'll have to have enought to last you at least 4 months (when the peak infection rate will begin to subside) or you'll have to have a way to get food at a time when many folks will not show up for work, schools and businesses will be closed and utilities may fail.

Be sure to check out the Flu Wiki for more information.

Suburban Survival Odds & Ends

Every now and then I run accross or come up with an idea or two regarding suburban survival preparadness. From time to time, I'll post them here. These posts will be open for comment.

Here goes the First Odds & Ends post:

Suburban Survival is an option because you survive best on the land that you know.

That being said, you need to make the most of the land you have in suburbia:

1. Plant two apple trees in each corner of your backyard. It will be a couple of years before they start to bear fruit, so better sooner than later.
2. Expand backyard flower beds so that they can be easily adapted for squash and tomatoes. In a real survivial situtation, these beds will be expanded to your entire backyard.
3. Plant a winter garden now. Know what varieties of cabbage, beets, etc. will live over winter depending on what your weather is like.
4. Go down to the garden store this week and buy last year's seeds on clearance. Put them in a cool, dry place.
5. Consider installing a koi pond in your backyard (close to your downspouts but far enough away to avoid damage to your foundation). In a survival situation, this can be converted to rainwater collection/cistern/source of water/place to store excess catfish.
6. Have a 55 gal drum & several 5 or 7 gal water holders, as well as a way to collect/filter/haul new water.
7. Get a generator. Now. Look around for an army surplus generator if you have the space to store it.
8. Start accumulating tools of various kinds, including hand tools such as hand saws, hammers, and wood drills.
9. Find out where the water table is on your land. It may be possible to drill a well and install a hand pump.
10. Do you have non-gas powered transportation? Bicycles will be valuable when there is no gas to buy (as will bicycle parts).
11. Spend some time sizing up your neighbors. Which ones are kind of handy with tools and have useful skills such as electrical or plumbing? Look carefully at thier lifestyle/needs. Will they be valuable as an ally? Survival in a suburban setting will take planning. You will need like minded people in the community with whom you can share responsibilities and tasks.
12. Try hard to pay the house off. It may be a lot easier to come up with the property taxes as opposed to having to make mortgage payments. If your finances are not in such a condition right now that you can pay off the house, get them in order.
13. Have the materials ready to reinforce a door (2X4's & wood screws).
14. If you have to abandon your suburban property, have 2 escape routes and a "bug out" bag always ready.

Thoughts/Comments?

Risk II

The BBC on Bird Flu