Mapping the Nomination From Here...

Time to start wondering how this will all end.

Maybe its a bit premature, but I think this will be relevant come Tuesday night.

As I see it, TX and OH could end this campaign. I see two issues to end it:

1. Will Obama win TX & OH?

2. Will Clinton see the writing on the wall and bow out if he does?


So, as I see it, counting only pledged (not super) delegates, Obama is ahead:

Obama: 1,012
Clinton: 940

Tomorrow is Maine so lets assume, a split 12 to 12
which brings us to:

O: 1,024
C: 952

Next week we have the Beltway Primary. Assume this shakes out for Obama:

DC: O 11, C 4
MD: O 40, C 30
VA: O 47, C 36

After Tuesday we could be at:

O: 1122
C: 1022

On the 19th, we add in HI and WI. HI is a home state for Obama so lets assume that goes for him 13 to 7, and give Clinton the benefit of the doubt in WI and split the delegates 37-37. Then we have:

O: 1172
C: 1066

Now, assume Obama wins TX & OH, say 53-47. Lets assign delegates here for our scenario:

OH: O 73 C 68
TX: O 101 C 92
and RI and VT:
RI: O 12 C 9
VT O 8 C 7

At this point we are at:

O: 1366
C: 1242

Now, assuming this happens, Obama now has the pledged delegate lead and has run the table on Clinton since Super Tuesday. Here are my questions:

1. Is it over? Is Obama the presumptive nominee? Remember there are still states to vote - they are:

State Date Delegates
WI 3/8 12
Miss 3/11 33
PA 4/22 158
Guam 5/4 4
Indiana 5/6 72
NC 5/6 115
WVA 5/13 28
KY 5/20 51
OR 5/20 52
MT 6/3 16
SD 6/3 15
PR 6/7 55

So there's still 611 delegates out, but even if it went 70-30 for either candidate, nobody is gonna get the majority needed to guarantee the nomination. I guess what I am asking is this: do democrats come together at this point and say to Clinton, you lost everything since Super Tuesday, you lost TX & OH, time to hang it up?

2. If the answer to #1 is yes, should she drop out? I'm very interested to hear from Clinton supporters here. BTW, please don't argue how FL & MI count - lets not get into that right now. If you want to argue FL & MI, they you have to provide a solution to the problem of how to count them and be fair to Obama.

3. So if the consensus is she should drop out if she looses FL & TX, then here's my final question - Do you think she will do it? Is it in her character to bow out gracefully or will she fight to the bitter end?

So those are my questions.

Just to get it started, I think if Obama runs the table through March 4, pressure must be brought to bear on Clinton to drop out. Personally I don't think she will and she'll fight to the bitter end. On the other hand, if Clinton can take one of either OH or TX, I think she's earned the right to continue until at least PA. If she wins that, she's earned the right to fight on (either until the end or until it becomes obvious she can't win the overall pledged delegate count).