The End or the Beginning of the End?

I am slowly coming to the realization that we may be heading to the worst possible situation - a fight for the democratic nomination all the way to the convention. We are now 3 days from March 4 and it is looking like the primaries are going to deliver us a split decision. We may well be at the exact same place we are now on March 5th. If we are, this race is a whole new ball game.

So here's the scenarios:


1. Rhode Island: Clinton Win, Vermont: Obama Win, Ohio: narrow Obama win, Texas: Obama win: I put this as the least likely scenario (10% chance) simply because I don't see an Obama win in Ohio.

The most recent polls put Ohio in Clinton's column:

ARG: Clinton 51, Obama 44, Undecided: 4
Zogby (for what it's worth): Clinton:45, Obama: 45, Undecided: 6
Rasmussen: Clinton: 47, Obama:45
Fox/Opinion Dynamics: Clinton: 46, Obama: 38, Undecided: 14
SUSA: Clinton: 50, Obama: 44, Undecided: 3

Now, polls have been all over the place this year, none of them have been very reliable but, it seems apparent that Clinton has solidified her position in Ohio. We'll see how the late breakers are going when polls come out tomorrow and monday, but the Obama camp can't be hopeful. I suspect the Obama campaign saw this in their internals earlier this week when they left Ohio and went back to Texas and Rhode Island (most likely just to try and keep Clinton's Ohio numbers down) before returning to Ohio tonight.

Clinton's base - folks over 65 and folks who make less than 50K/year are clearly in her camp, and there may be a tinge of racism to overcome in Ohio (see also Ed Rendell's comments on Ohio's neighboring state, PA):

If Hillary doesn't get the nomination, this man said, he'd not only vote for but work for McCain, "and I hate McCain."

"Why not Obama?"

"He's too inexperienced."

"And why else?" a woman down the bar asked.

"Because he's black."

The only hope for an Obama win in Ohio is for the Obama GOTV to outperform and, for these <50K Hillary supporters to stay home.

Which brings us to scenario #2....

2. Rhode Island: Clinton Win, Vermont: Obama win, Ohio: Narrow Clinton win (6 pts or less), Texas: Obama win: I put this as the most likely scenario (50%).

But, there does seem to be some concern here too. Obama appeared to be pulling ahead in Texas the middle of this past week, but the most recent polls seem to show a Clinton come-back:

ARG: Obama:47, Clinton: 47, Undecided: 4
Zogby (again, for what its worth): Obama: 45, Clinton: 43, Undecided: 8
Rasmussen: Obama: 48, Clinton: 44, Undecided: 8
SUSA: Obama: 49, Clinton: 45, Undecided: 3

it looks like Obama has the upper hand in Texas, but as this comment at myDD states, it looks like, over the past couple of days, Clinton's base (<50K/year, >65, Hispanic) is coming home to her at the end.

Which brings us to scenario #3...

3. Rhode Island: Clinton Win, Vermont: Obama win, Ohio: Narrow Clinton win (6 pts or less), Texas: Clinton popular vote win, delegate loss. I rank this as a possible outcome Tuesday (30%) and it is clear that this is what the Clinton camp is hoping for.

I'll address this scenario in more detail below, but lets get on with the remaining possibilities for now...

4: Rhode Island: Clinton win, Vermont: Obama win, Ohio: Narrow Clinton win (6 pts or less), Texas: Clinton win (popular vote and delegates). Obviously this is the Clinton dream scenario but I think its unlikely (5%).

Now there are some other variations on these scenarios: an Obama win in Rhode Island, big (>8%) wins for Obama in Texas and Ohio, big (>8%) wins for Clinton in Texas and Ohio, but each is very unlikely (1-2% chance).

So how does this nomination play out given these scenarios?

Scenario #1: If Obama wins Ohio & Texas, no matter what the margin, Clinton is done. She will be forced to suspend her campaign within days, if she does not do it Tuesday night. The Super Delegates will break for Obama in droves, headlined by Edwards, Richardson and possibly even Gore. Obama will then be free to begin the campaign for the general election as he wraps up the nomination in WV, NC, PA et. al.

Now, I have seen several comments about how it would be better for Obama if Clinton were to stay in so that Obama can have the chance to build up his organization in these post-March 4 states. I say hogwash. The sooner this ends, the better for the nominee. I would argue that the reason Obama seems to be slipping in Texas the past couple of days is because he has had to wage a two front campaign the past 10 days: one against Clinton and one against McCain. If Obama has to do this from now until Puerto Rico, he will be wounded for the general election. The sooner he can take over the reigns of the party, the better.

Scenario #2: This is the tough one. Clearly Obama has broken the Clinton firewall. But, the Clinton campaign has been laying the ground work to continue on if this is the scenario that comes to pass. It seems clear that they are going to argue that the Texas rules (primary & caucus) are unfair, and possibly file a (BS) lawsuit to try and put the Texas results into question. Clinton will argue that the goalposts have to moved again - to Pennsylvania on April 22, and we will be right back where we are now - Obama ahead in states, popular vote & delegates and Clinton somehow still hanging on waiting for something to turn the race her way. Between March 4 and April 22, Obama should be expected to win Wyoming (12 delegates) on March 8 and Mississippi (33 delegates) on March 11 so there is the possibility that Obama blow-outs in those states could put the pressure on Clinton to drop out on March 12, but, given the Clinton campaign's penchant for dismissing caucuses and red-state wins, this is unlikely.

With this in mind, if scenario #2 is what we end up with on Tuesday, there will need to be a game-changer to put the pressure on Clinton : Edwards or Gore endorsement, party leaders sitting her down and telling her to suspend etc, or we are waiting until PA. If the race goes to PA, Obama has to win PA or keep it close the argue that he's won the most delegates.

Scenario #3: If this happens, its off to PA. I don't think Obama would have the moral authority to argue that Clinton should suspend, even though there is still no realistic way she can catch him in delegates. We'll have to see what the PA results show - PA becomes a must win for Obama. Under this scenario I suspect the nomination goes all the way to the convention.

Scenario #4: Again, off to PA. I suspect this is the game changer scenario for Clinton. All of her arguments concerning Michigan and Florida will have to be addressed and PA will probably be the deciding contest, with the winner being the nominee.

So, here's where I think we are at:

10% chance the race ends Tuesday night.
50% chance the race ends sometime between March 4 and March 12
30% chance the race goes all the way to the convention
10% chance the race ends April 22.