2008: iTunes Movie Rentals?

I've been saying for some time that Apple needs to offer iTunes Movie Rentals.  I am not the only one.

Recently, a college student noticed that with the release of iTunes 7.5, there are clues burried in the code that movie rentals may be coming soon. 

Related to this is the ongoing struggle with TV content and digital distribution.  Yet, despite the fears of the TV networks, viewing TV content online or via iPods and iPhones through iTunes, is not the cause of the decrease in TV viewership. 

There has been some hope that Movie Rentals would come before the holidays. 
While I would love to see movie rentals before the holidays, I don't
think will happen until January 2008 at the Macworld conference.  With the holiday shopping season due to kick off next week and the iPhone launch in France on November 29th, Apple will probably be quite content to sit on Movie Rentals until MacWorld. 

Of course, I could be wrong.  In just the past two weeks we've had a MacBook update without a press release and a significant upgrade to Final Cut Express with a simple press release.  Anyone who has been following Apple for some time knows that back in 2001 to early 2003 both of these would have been fuel for at least an "Apple Special Event". But, ever since the "MacWorld NY controversy",  Apple has announced products on its own time table and in a tiered manner - "low key" announcements (press release - generally speed bumps to existing products), "medium key" announcements (special events - usually at the Apple Town Hall or at industry functions), and "high visibility" (macworld, wwdc,  any special event held at Moscone).

So, why does this matter?  Well because Movie Rentals would have to fall into at least the "medium" category.  That would require at least an Apple Special Event which means that invitations would need to go out to the press.  In the past, Apple has given at least 2 weeks notice as to when these events would occur (sometimes more, and I believe, on one occasion, 1 week notice - but I could be wrong on that one).  But, I would argue that a Movie Rental announcement would be "high visibility".  With the holidays approaching any Apple Event would need to happen the first week in December (since, due to the Thanksgiving holiday, next week is out and Apple would not want to steal the thunder of the iPhone France launch on the 29th).

But, the next "high visibility" event is already on the calendar and only 8 weeks away - MWSF on January 15th.  So what's on tap for MWSF?  Well, the scuttlebutt says some sort of portable tablet.  And that's about it right now.  We know there'll be no OS X announcement since Leopard was just released.  Ditto for iLife and iWork.  The iPod line was just completely refreshed so that's probably a zero (with an outside chance of a storage bump/price cut). 

So what does that leave in Apple's product line to announce?  New displays?  Maybe, but that's been anticipated for a while (and still hasn't happened).  New iMacs? They were refreshed recently too.  MacPros?  Ok, well they are due for a refresh but, they are not really "consumer" machines and Apple likes to target Macworld with consumer products.  So, other than the ultra-portable and laptop line, the only thing that is due for a needed redesign is Apple TV.  How much sense would it make to announce Movie Rentals along with a new Apple TV with say, an integrated DVD player and maybe DVR capabilities?  (Yes, I know there's the iPhone, but I've gone on record already as saying iPhone 2 is not happening the first half of 2008). A lot of sense I think.

So, despite the speculation, I don't think we will see iTunes Movie Rentals until MWSF.  I expect that the iTunes portion of the keynote will include both Movie Rentals and the Beatles.  Until then, keep that Netflix subscription going.