Shock AP poll: Tied

Well, today's shock poll comes from the AP and shows that the race is essentially tied among "likely voters":

Obama 44
McCain 33
margin of error +/- 3.5

I have to assume this is an outlier as all the other polls have Obama up at least 6 (NBC has it at 10, and even Fox news has Obama up 9).

I took a peak at the crosstabs and there has to be something wrong with AP's likely voter screen. The AP shows Obama with a 10 point lead (Obama 46, McCain 37) before they apply their likely voter model. I am sure Nate Silver will figure all this out over at fivethirtyeight.com.