Vote Early

With 15 days to go, the national polls seem to have tightened a bit. What was an average Obama lead of 7 or 8 points is now down to 5 or 6. But, the polls of the battleground states are still looking good for Obama. Of course, battleground polls have been lagging behind the national numbers all fall. Something to keep an eye on.

So the first big story on early voting trends came out today. Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, Nevada and Ohio early voters are predominantly democrats. Republicans hold an edge on early voters in Florida and it looks to be about even in Indiana.

McCain needs all these states so the democratic advantage in Ohio and North Carolina is hopeful for Obama. Florida is a concern, especially since I am afraid the Obama campaign may be falling into the "Florida trap" by spending a lot of time and effort there in what may be a lost cause. Maybe it's the ghost of 2000 but I just don't trust the polls out of Florida showing that Obama is ahead.