I have always considered Jerome Armstrong a "sky is falling", "glass half empty" kind of guy, even more so since Hillary Clinton was beaten in the primaries but, he very well may have a point on Palin.
Basically, he says that the truly horrid VP roll out means nothing because Palin has energized the base and thereby put into play the GOP ground game for the election.
Definitely worth a read.
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
Palin: the new Eagleton
OK. I'm going on the record here. Sarah Palin will withdraw as McCain's VP.
Why?
Well, she is just getting killed as are republicans trying to defend her. It seems like every hour there is a new revelation about her and none of it is good.
So far I count the following:
1. Troopergate: They have got a confession on tape from an aid and emails. I suspect they will be able to prove abuse of power
2. for the bridge to nowhere before she was against it
3. Member of the Alaska Secessionist Party
4. Directed fundraising for Indicted Sen Stevens' 527
5. Totally unqualified for the job
oh and...
6. Has a 17 yr old who is 5 months pregnant (although I put this at the bottom of the disqualifying items since it should not matter at all)
This VP rollout was just so so badly managed by the McCain campaign. It is clear they did not vet her at all, no matter how much they deny it.
So, I can safely say she will not be on the ballot come November. If I had to hazard a guess, if she has another bad news day tomorrow, by Wednesday afternoon she will withdraw. If she can somehow survive the week, I give it no more than 2 weeks.
Why?
Well, she is just getting killed as are republicans trying to defend her. It seems like every hour there is a new revelation about her and none of it is good.
So far I count the following:
1. Troopergate: They have got a confession on tape from an aid and emails. I suspect they will be able to prove abuse of power
2. for the bridge to nowhere before she was against it
3. Member of the Alaska Secessionist Party
4. Directed fundraising for Indicted Sen Stevens' 527
5. Totally unqualified for the job
oh and...
6. Has a 17 yr old who is 5 months pregnant (although I put this at the bottom of the disqualifying items since it should not matter at all)
This VP rollout was just so so badly managed by the McCain campaign. It is clear they did not vet her at all, no matter how much they deny it.
So, I can safely say she will not be on the ballot come November. If I had to hazard a guess, if she has another bad news day tomorrow, by Wednesday afternoon she will withdraw. If she can somehow survive the week, I give it no more than 2 weeks.
Friday, August 29, 2008
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
DNC 2008: Day 2
Well, day 2 is over. The red meat was served with a dessert of Unity.
Thoughts:
Sebelius: Ok speech, but I see now why she was not picked as VP. The majority of her speech covered Obama's economic proposals and the delivery was a little flat, but she had a great dig on McCain:
Strickland: Good speech, although, again, not someone who fires up a room but an awesome line:
Casey: Very good speech, again average delivery. I heard Carville on CNN say that the Democrats have some pretty major league talent at the top of their talent pool after Clintons speech (more on that below) but, I must say after Obama and Clinton and (hopefully) Biden, there seems to be a big drop in ability to give a speech. In any event, Casey also had an awesome line:
Rendell: Delivered a speech that was pretty "meaty" lots of digs, but I still think he underperformed given his reputation.
Before I get to the big 3, some pleasant surprises:
Dennis Kucinich: wow. he was fired up and ready to go. maybe too much, and, on reflection being surprised by Kucinich is probably normal.
David Patterson: what a surprise. Why this guy had to inherit the NY Gov. office is beyond me.
The "Real People": every one of the folks who came out and told their stories was very good, especially Lilly Leadbetter.
Xavier Becerra: very good.
Rahm Emanuel: I know why he's such a behind the scenes guy, and I expected him to come out and just hammer away but he was underwhelming. I have seen talk here and there that he may be a president/vice president some day. He's got a ways to go.
Deval Patrick: Very well done and delivered although I think it could have been more energizing.
Ok, now for the big 3 speeches:
Mark Warner: Pretty good speech. I was a little apprehensive about him, but he did OK and I am not sure this was a "keynote" worthy speech. But that's OK because the last 2 speeches of the night made up for it.
Brian Schweitzer: Just awesome how he took a speech on energy independence and just fired out the delegates is beyond me. What a character! My favorite dig (no pun intended):
After Schweitzer's speech, I would thought Clinton would have an even harder task than the one she faced, but, I have to agree with the CW (and I am not a Hillary fan) that she hit a grand slam. I watched a lot of her speeches during the primary and have to say this was the best speech I have ever seen her give.
She set the tone right off the bat:
And the key quote:
She went after McCain pretty hard:
And she finished great.
Now, I do wish she had addressed the commander in chief BS that she let loose in the primaries as that is what the rethugs went for after her speech. But overall I don't know what else Obama supporters could have asked for.
So where does that leave us?
Well, first, I wish the hell they would get control of the delegates more. Their constant unruliness during the speeches is annoying and is taking away from the non-prime time speakers. Moreover, even the cable news channels are not showing speeches due to the fact, I suspect, that nobody seems to be paying attention. Every now and then the will stop their constant prognosticating and cut to the podium but only after the delegates have gotten ahold of themselves and start responding to the speakers. You can be sure that the rethugs are going to sit still and silent for 4 hours each day next week and, as a result, a lot of their non prime time speakers are going to get cable news time.
Second, the PUMAs are DOA after Clinton's speech. She has rightfully chastised them. If Obama can't get them, they were never going to be gotten and they need to be written off.
Finally, Day 3 and 4 have been teed up (just as I suspect the Obama campaign had hoped) with Michelle Obama's wonderful speech and Clinton's near pitch perfect unity speech. Biden has to come out and just let loose on McCain and Obama has to give the best speech ever (and given his track record, that is a very very high bar indeed).
Thoughts:
Sebelius: Ok speech, but I see now why she was not picked as VP. The majority of her speech covered Obama's economic proposals and the delivery was a little flat, but she had a great dig on McCain:
I’m sure you remember a girl from Kansas who said there’s no place like home. Well, in John McCain’s version, there’s no place like home. And a home. And home. And home.
Strickland: Good speech, although, again, not someone who fires up a room but an awesome line:
George W. Bush came into office on third base… and then he stole second. And John McCain cheered him every step of the way.
Casey: Very good speech, again average delivery. I heard Carville on CNN say that the Democrats have some pretty major league talent at the top of their talent pool after Clintons speech (more on that below) but, I must say after Obama and Clinton and (hopefully) Biden, there seems to be a big drop in ability to give a speech. In any event, Casey also had an awesome line:
John McCain calls himself a maverick, but he votes with George Bush more than 90% of the time. That’s not a maverick, that’s a sidekick.
Rendell: Delivered a speech that was pretty "meaty" lots of digs, but I still think he underperformed given his reputation.
Before I get to the big 3, some pleasant surprises:
Dennis Kucinich: wow. he was fired up and ready to go. maybe too much, and, on reflection being surprised by Kucinich is probably normal.
David Patterson: what a surprise. Why this guy had to inherit the NY Gov. office is beyond me.
The "Real People": every one of the folks who came out and told their stories was very good, especially Lilly Leadbetter.
Xavier Becerra: very good.
Rahm Emanuel: I know why he's such a behind the scenes guy, and I expected him to come out and just hammer away but he was underwhelming. I have seen talk here and there that he may be a president/vice president some day. He's got a ways to go.
Deval Patrick: Very well done and delivered although I think it could have been more energizing.
Ok, now for the big 3 speeches:
Mark Warner: Pretty good speech. I was a little apprehensive about him, but he did OK and I am not sure this was a "keynote" worthy speech. But that's OK because the last 2 speeches of the night made up for it.
Brian Schweitzer: Just awesome how he took a speech on energy independence and just fired out the delegates is beyond me. What a character! My favorite dig (no pun intended):
We simply can’t drill our way to energy independence, even if you drilled in all of John McCain’s backyards, including the ones he can’t even remember.
After Schweitzer's speech, I would thought Clinton would have an even harder task than the one she faced, but, I have to agree with the CW (and I am not a Hillary fan) that she hit a grand slam. I watched a lot of her speeches during the primary and have to say this was the best speech I have ever seen her give.
She set the tone right off the bat:
No way, no how, no McCain
And the key quote:
I ran to stand up for all those who have been invisible to their government for eight long years. Those are the reasons I ran for president, and those are the reasons I support Barack Obama for president. I want you -- I want you to ask yourselves: Were you in this campaign just for me, or were you in it for that young Marine and others like him? Were you in it for that mom struggling with cancer while raising her kids? Were you in it for that young boy and his mom surviving on the minimum wage? Were you in it for all the people in this country who feel invisible?
She went after McCain pretty hard:
it makes perfect sense that George Bush and John McCain will be together next week in the Twin Cities, because these days they're awfully hard to tell apart.
And she finished great.
Now, I do wish she had addressed the commander in chief BS that she let loose in the primaries as that is what the rethugs went for after her speech. But overall I don't know what else Obama supporters could have asked for.
So where does that leave us?
Well, first, I wish the hell they would get control of the delegates more. Their constant unruliness during the speeches is annoying and is taking away from the non-prime time speakers. Moreover, even the cable news channels are not showing speeches due to the fact, I suspect, that nobody seems to be paying attention. Every now and then the will stop their constant prognosticating and cut to the podium but only after the delegates have gotten ahold of themselves and start responding to the speakers. You can be sure that the rethugs are going to sit still and silent for 4 hours each day next week and, as a result, a lot of their non prime time speakers are going to get cable news time.
Second, the PUMAs are DOA after Clinton's speech. She has rightfully chastised them. If Obama can't get them, they were never going to be gotten and they need to be written off.
Finally, Day 3 and 4 have been teed up (just as I suspect the Obama campaign had hoped) with Michelle Obama's wonderful speech and Clinton's near pitch perfect unity speech. Biden has to come out and just let loose on McCain and Obama has to give the best speech ever (and given his track record, that is a very very high bar indeed).
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
DNC 2008: Day 1 Thoughts
First off some thoughts on day 1 of the Democratic National Convention:
I watched most of the convention on CSPAN yesterday, so I (thankfully) missed most of the talking heads and heard all of the speakers. The big take away for me is this: Michelle Obama's speech was a home run. The best of the night. Ted Kennedy's tribute and speech was very moving and probably should have been bumped later in order for it to be shown on the networks.
As for the rest, as is typical for democrats, the conventioneers were an unruly bunch for nearly everything except the Kennedy and Obama speeches, which took away from some very good speakers. Pelosi's speech was OK as was McCaskill's, I thought Jim Leach's speech was excellent, sadly he is not a great speaker and the refusal of the delegates to shut up hurt him. Jessie Jackson, Jrs. speech was very well done, he was probably the best after Obama and Kennedy.
The big controversy is whether the first night was wasted by not going after McCain more. I have to agree that the delegates are hungry for and need "red meat" attacks, but last night was probably not the night to do it. We will see what tonight holds.
As for tonight, Clinton is the big speaker and she has a lot on the line (as does Obama). Early word is that Mark Warner, the keynoter, will not be going after McCain so the task will fall on Clinton.
Finally some random thoughts:
* Bill Clinton needs to STFU. It has almost come to the point that Obama may have to dis-invite him from speaking. How fast can Gore get to Denver to take his spot?
* The press seems more concerned with the Hillary Dead-Enders than the delegates seem to be.
* Picking Warner as the keynote may have been a mistake. We will see tonight.
* The Obama girls were awesome and I loved the way the corrected their Dad's misstatement of what city he was in.
* Hillary Clinton needs to put an end to this roll call controversy.
* Why the hell can't the networks show the conventions for more than 1 hour a night? You would think they could take 2 weeks every four years.
* The Cable news shows have too many rethugs on. I hope the dems get equal time next week. (and an idea: Biden and Obama should show up at the RNC next week)
I watched most of the convention on CSPAN yesterday, so I (thankfully) missed most of the talking heads and heard all of the speakers. The big take away for me is this: Michelle Obama's speech was a home run. The best of the night. Ted Kennedy's tribute and speech was very moving and probably should have been bumped later in order for it to be shown on the networks.
As for the rest, as is typical for democrats, the conventioneers were an unruly bunch for nearly everything except the Kennedy and Obama speeches, which took away from some very good speakers. Pelosi's speech was OK as was McCaskill's, I thought Jim Leach's speech was excellent, sadly he is not a great speaker and the refusal of the delegates to shut up hurt him. Jessie Jackson, Jrs. speech was very well done, he was probably the best after Obama and Kennedy.
The big controversy is whether the first night was wasted by not going after McCain more. I have to agree that the delegates are hungry for and need "red meat" attacks, but last night was probably not the night to do it. We will see what tonight holds.
As for tonight, Clinton is the big speaker and she has a lot on the line (as does Obama). Early word is that Mark Warner, the keynoter, will not be going after McCain so the task will fall on Clinton.
Finally some random thoughts:
* Bill Clinton needs to STFU. It has almost come to the point that Obama may have to dis-invite him from speaking. How fast can Gore get to Denver to take his spot?
* The press seems more concerned with the Hillary Dead-Enders than the delegates seem to be.
* Picking Warner as the keynote may have been a mistake. We will see tonight.
* The Obama girls were awesome and I loved the way the corrected their Dad's misstatement of what city he was in.
* Hillary Clinton needs to put an end to this roll call controversy.
* Why the hell can't the networks show the conventions for more than 1 hour a night? You would think they could take 2 weeks every four years.
* The Cable news shows have too many rethugs on. I hope the dems get equal time next week. (and an idea: Biden and Obama should show up at the RNC next week)
Saturday, August 23, 2008
Looks like it is Biden
Well, so much for the text message....
Shortly after midnight on August 23, the news networks, and major newspapers began reporting that Barack Obama asked Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware to be his VP.
Unless this is some brilliant head fake (and the evidence seems to be the following: the secret service showing up at Biden's home, and at least a couple of anonymous democratic officials confirming it as well as statements from the camps of other VP hopefuls that they were told that they had not been picked), it looks like this is the real deal.
As I mentioned the other day, I thought Biden was probably Obama's second pick. I thought he would pick Kathleen Sebelius. I guess not, but I am happy it is Biden. He brings a lot to the table and it is going to be fun watching him tear John McCain up.
Some random thoughts....
* Biden is 65. So clearly he is not going to be President (he would be 74 if Obama/Biden gets 2 terms)
* I hope the story of how the pick was made comes out someday. It has to be a good one.
* Don't be surprised if Biden's son is named/runs for his senate seat (not sure how Delaware would pick Biden's replacement)
* My parents live about 10 minutes from Biden. Hope he doesn't shut down the roads a lot over the next four years (LOL)
Shortly after midnight on August 23, the news networks, and major newspapers began reporting that Barack Obama asked Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware to be his VP.
Unless this is some brilliant head fake (and the evidence seems to be the following: the secret service showing up at Biden's home, and at least a couple of anonymous democratic officials confirming it as well as statements from the camps of other VP hopefuls that they were told that they had not been picked), it looks like this is the real deal.
As I mentioned the other day, I thought Biden was probably Obama's second pick. I thought he would pick Kathleen Sebelius. I guess not, but I am happy it is Biden. He brings a lot to the table and it is going to be fun watching him tear John McCain up.
Some random thoughts....
* Biden is 65. So clearly he is not going to be President (he would be 74 if Obama/Biden gets 2 terms)
* I hope the story of how the pick was made comes out someday. It has to be a good one.
* Don't be surprised if Biden's son is named/runs for his senate seat (not sure how Delaware would pick Biden's replacement)
* My parents live about 10 minutes from Biden. Hope he doesn't shut down the roads a lot over the next four years (LOL)
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
Back in the Saddle: 76 Days until E-Day
As usual for me, posts to this blog have been few and far between. What can I say, life happens. But, as of today, there are 76 days until election day. I am going to try and get at least one post a day from here on out. Hopefully these posts will be more than just a recap of the days news however, for today at least, it will have to be just a summary of where I think the election stands.
So, here goes...
Obviously right now the issue consuming the most attention is who will be Obama's VP. The conventional wisdom is that it is going to be Joe Biden. I am not so convinced.
The thinking behind Biden is that he would help shore up Obama's perceived weakness in national security and be a great attack dog. However, I think Obama is not thinking that way. He has made it clear that he is confident in his ability to handle foreign policy and does not view it as a weakness at all and that the primary criteria for his selection is going to be someone who he can work with, agrees with him on his "new politics" philosophy.
If I had to guess who his pick is going to be I would put my money on Gov. Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas. Picking her fulfills all of the criteria listed above and all the criteria Obama has laid out to the press for his VP.
Now, the Clinton lovers will probably go ballistic over this pick but I view that as an added benefit to picking Sebelius. Obama has made it pretty clear he has bent over backwards to accommodate the Clintons (prime time convention speaking slots, roll call votes, the stupid statement in the party platform about the "18 million cracks in the glass ceiling", changing portions of his health care proposal to reflect the Clinton plan, helping Clinton retire her debt) and, up until now, he has gotten little to show for it (see Bill Clintons statements re: qualification for president, compliments regarding John McCain's environmental record). By picking Sebelius the message to the Clinton dead enders is this: Hey. Here's a qualified women who shares my philosophy. If you really think its Hillary or no one else then you are a bunch of hypocrites and I don't need you. Either get on board the train or not.
Is it a gamble? Yes. Right now the polls show that where Obama is under performing is with democrats (he is getting about 80% of the self-identified democrats in most of the polls I have seen, which is less than Kerry got). If he can bump that up to about 90% of self-identified democrats, he wins the election. Picking a women (even though it is not Hillary) would do two things: attempt to lure some of those dems back into the fold and, given who Sebelius is and her record, make a serious play for the rational wing of the republican party.
So, that's my guess. As to the timing: I would not be surprised if he did not announce until Saturday morning although I think the Obama campaign is open to announcing earlier, depending on the news cycle (for example, how much air time is the new - and most likely flawed - Zogby poll showing McCain with a lead for the first time going to get? If it gets too much, then maybe the VP announcement comes to get it out of the headlines).
So, here goes...
Obviously right now the issue consuming the most attention is who will be Obama's VP. The conventional wisdom is that it is going to be Joe Biden. I am not so convinced.
The thinking behind Biden is that he would help shore up Obama's perceived weakness in national security and be a great attack dog. However, I think Obama is not thinking that way. He has made it clear that he is confident in his ability to handle foreign policy and does not view it as a weakness at all and that the primary criteria for his selection is going to be someone who he can work with, agrees with him on his "new politics" philosophy.
If I had to guess who his pick is going to be I would put my money on Gov. Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas. Picking her fulfills all of the criteria listed above and all the criteria Obama has laid out to the press for his VP.
Now, the Clinton lovers will probably go ballistic over this pick but I view that as an added benefit to picking Sebelius. Obama has made it pretty clear he has bent over backwards to accommodate the Clintons (prime time convention speaking slots, roll call votes, the stupid statement in the party platform about the "18 million cracks in the glass ceiling", changing portions of his health care proposal to reflect the Clinton plan, helping Clinton retire her debt) and, up until now, he has gotten little to show for it (see Bill Clintons statements re: qualification for president, compliments regarding John McCain's environmental record). By picking Sebelius the message to the Clinton dead enders is this: Hey. Here's a qualified women who shares my philosophy. If you really think its Hillary or no one else then you are a bunch of hypocrites and I don't need you. Either get on board the train or not.
Is it a gamble? Yes. Right now the polls show that where Obama is under performing is with democrats (he is getting about 80% of the self-identified democrats in most of the polls I have seen, which is less than Kerry got). If he can bump that up to about 90% of self-identified democrats, he wins the election. Picking a women (even though it is not Hillary) would do two things: attempt to lure some of those dems back into the fold and, given who Sebelius is and her record, make a serious play for the rational wing of the republican party.
So, that's my guess. As to the timing: I would not be surprised if he did not announce until Saturday morning although I think the Obama campaign is open to announcing earlier, depending on the news cycle (for example, how much air time is the new - and most likely flawed - Zogby poll showing McCain with a lead for the first time going to get? If it gets too much, then maybe the VP announcement comes to get it out of the headlines).
Wednesday, May 28, 2008
Clinton Debt = $21 Million, Just Say No, Obama
The LA Times is reporting this morning that Clinton is $21 Million in debt. Given the fact that this race is over and Obama has (or soon will) win, there has been alot of speculation that Obama will offer to help Clinton pay down the debt. I say no...
Look, any reasonable observer knows that winning this race was a long shot for Clinton after March 4 and the Obama winning streak. ( see this Chuck Todd post for the breakdown). We also know that Clinton was out of powder (i.e. money $$) at that time. Yet, she still chose to vigorously continue her campaign. That was her right.
Yet, as it became more apparent that her hopes were becoming slimmer as OH, TX, PA, et. al, failed to change the dynamic of the race, she has still (rightly or wrongly) refused to suspend her campaign. She has continued to spend, spend, spend. The result? Mountains of debt and vendors unpaid (although if I were her, I'd tell Mark Penn that he's never going to collect what she owes him).
Now that Obama has won the majority of pledged delegates, all the pundits keep saying is it is all about how Clinton exits the race. All signs point to the fact that she will not get out until after June 3. Again, that's her right. But, how the heck can she justify the spending?
More importantly, how can Obama and his supporters justify helping her pay off this mountain of debt? Speculation is that Clinton is going to position herself to negotiate with Obama that in exchange for her suspending her campaign, Obama will help her pay down this debt. At this point though, unless Clinton is willing to suspend within days, I have to think that Obama has to say no. He cannot justify this to his supporters.
How is Obama going to go to his supporters and ask them to help pay for the debt that was incurred by Clinton after most reasonable people knew her chances were slim to none? Even worse, how can anyone justify paying down the additional debt that is going to be incurred by Clinton to campaign in the June 1 and June 3 states?
Moreover, where the hell were Clinton's financial people? How could they let this happen? I can't believe that they deluded themselves into thinking that it was worth it. I mean, what is the best possibility right now for Clinton? She gets half of MI & FL and says she finished the primary season but still lost? Maybe she gets to influence the health Care plank of the platform and gets some sort of veto power over the VP choice (I take it for granted that the VP will not be Clinton for a lot of reasons, the biggest being that she brings nothing to the ticket that Obama does not already have). Is this worth $21 million plus?
Historically when candidates ran out of money the gracefully exit the race. It is well past time to Clinton to do so on that basis alone. For her to continue now and then have the audacity to come back to Obama in two weeks when it is over and ask him to help with her debt is morally wrong. It is unfair to Obama, his supporters, and democratic chances in November as she will be diverting monies that should rationally go to the presidential campaign and/or down ticket candidates.
Obama has to just say no.
UPDATE: I should have made this clearer in the post originally, Obama cannot give Clinton the $21 million out of his fund raising coffers. What he can do is host raisers for Clinton and/or ask his donors to contribute and/or give Clinton access to his donor DB (which is probably the most coveted political DB in existence today - I am sure down ticket candidates are just salivating at getting access to it). So the real question is whether Obama should do these things on Clinton's behalf. I still say no way.
Look, any reasonable observer knows that winning this race was a long shot for Clinton after March 4 and the Obama winning streak. ( see this Chuck Todd post for the breakdown). We also know that Clinton was out of powder (i.e. money $$) at that time. Yet, she still chose to vigorously continue her campaign. That was her right.
Yet, as it became more apparent that her hopes were becoming slimmer as OH, TX, PA, et. al, failed to change the dynamic of the race, she has still (rightly or wrongly) refused to suspend her campaign. She has continued to spend, spend, spend. The result? Mountains of debt and vendors unpaid (although if I were her, I'd tell Mark Penn that he's never going to collect what she owes him).
Now that Obama has won the majority of pledged delegates, all the pundits keep saying is it is all about how Clinton exits the race. All signs point to the fact that she will not get out until after June 3. Again, that's her right. But, how the heck can she justify the spending?
More importantly, how can Obama and his supporters justify helping her pay off this mountain of debt? Speculation is that Clinton is going to position herself to negotiate with Obama that in exchange for her suspending her campaign, Obama will help her pay down this debt. At this point though, unless Clinton is willing to suspend within days, I have to think that Obama has to say no. He cannot justify this to his supporters.
How is Obama going to go to his supporters and ask them to help pay for the debt that was incurred by Clinton after most reasonable people knew her chances were slim to none? Even worse, how can anyone justify paying down the additional debt that is going to be incurred by Clinton to campaign in the June 1 and June 3 states?
Moreover, where the hell were Clinton's financial people? How could they let this happen? I can't believe that they deluded themselves into thinking that it was worth it. I mean, what is the best possibility right now for Clinton? She gets half of MI & FL and says she finished the primary season but still lost? Maybe she gets to influence the health Care plank of the platform and gets some sort of veto power over the VP choice (I take it for granted that the VP will not be Clinton for a lot of reasons, the biggest being that she brings nothing to the ticket that Obama does not already have). Is this worth $21 million plus?
Historically when candidates ran out of money the gracefully exit the race. It is well past time to Clinton to do so on that basis alone. For her to continue now and then have the audacity to come back to Obama in two weeks when it is over and ask him to help with her debt is morally wrong. It is unfair to Obama, his supporters, and democratic chances in November as she will be diverting monies that should rationally go to the presidential campaign and/or down ticket candidates.
Obama has to just say no.
UPDATE: I should have made this clearer in the post originally, Obama cannot give Clinton the $21 million out of his fund raising coffers. What he can do is host raisers for Clinton and/or ask his donors to contribute and/or give Clinton access to his donor DB (which is probably the most coveted political DB in existence today - I am sure down ticket candidates are just salivating at getting access to it). So the real question is whether Obama should do these things on Clinton's behalf. I still say no way.
Monday, March 3, 2008
March 4 Predictions
Well, I suppose I should post my predictions for tomorrow night's democratic primaries.
Right now the conventional wisdom seems to think that Ohio & Rhode Island will be won by Clinton,Vermont by Obama and Texas as a toss-up. I suppose I could go with the conventional wisdom. The polls certainly support this view. But, I am going to go out on a limb here - mostly because the polls have been wrong.
So here goes, for posterity sake:
Ohio: Obama win by 1%. Counting will go late into the night. Why? I think Ohio is going to be a combination of Wisconsin and Missouri - remember that the networks called Missouri for Clinton, but then retracted and then Obama finally won. I think thats going to be the case here. Now, most polls show Clinton up by an average of 6%, and the NAFTA/Canada flap probably has hurt Obama. Even the Obama campaign seems to have written off Ohio. But I just have a feeling the pollster's models are not taking everything into account. So I'll stick with my pick: Obama by 1%.
Vermont: Obama by 15%. This is pretty much in line with the conventional wisdom.
Rhode Island: Sometime around 8 PM tomorrow night, the networks will call RI for Clinton, noting that she has finally broken Obama's 11 state winning streak. Clinton by 10%
Texas: Its a dead heat right now. There's all kinds of talk about how Clinton might win the popular vote but Obama will win the caucus. Again, I'm going out on a limb: Obama wins the popular vote and the caucus. Obama by 6% in the popular vote. Don't be surprised if we don't know the result until the next day.
So there it is. I predict Obama will end the Clinton campaign tomorrow night. Come Wednesday, we'll start to see the super delegates flock to Obama.
Right now the conventional wisdom seems to think that Ohio & Rhode Island will be won by Clinton,Vermont by Obama and Texas as a toss-up. I suppose I could go with the conventional wisdom. The polls certainly support this view. But, I am going to go out on a limb here - mostly because the polls have been wrong.
So here goes, for posterity sake:
Ohio: Obama win by 1%. Counting will go late into the night. Why? I think Ohio is going to be a combination of Wisconsin and Missouri - remember that the networks called Missouri for Clinton, but then retracted and then Obama finally won. I think thats going to be the case here. Now, most polls show Clinton up by an average of 6%, and the NAFTA/Canada flap probably has hurt Obama. Even the Obama campaign seems to have written off Ohio. But I just have a feeling the pollster's models are not taking everything into account. So I'll stick with my pick: Obama by 1%.
Vermont: Obama by 15%. This is pretty much in line with the conventional wisdom.
Rhode Island: Sometime around 8 PM tomorrow night, the networks will call RI for Clinton, noting that she has finally broken Obama's 11 state winning streak. Clinton by 10%
Texas: Its a dead heat right now. There's all kinds of talk about how Clinton might win the popular vote but Obama will win the caucus. Again, I'm going out on a limb: Obama wins the popular vote and the caucus. Obama by 6% in the popular vote. Don't be surprised if we don't know the result until the next day.
So there it is. I predict Obama will end the Clinton campaign tomorrow night. Come Wednesday, we'll start to see the super delegates flock to Obama.
Saturday, March 1, 2008
The End or the Beginning of the End?
I am slowly coming to the realization that we may be heading to the worst possible situation - a fight for the democratic nomination all the way to the convention. We are now 3 days from March 4 and it is looking like the primaries are going to deliver us a split decision. We may well be at the exact same place we are now on March 5th. If we are, this race is a whole new ball game.
So here's the scenarios:
1. Rhode Island: Clinton Win, Vermont: Obama Win, Ohio: narrow Obama win, Texas: Obama win: I put this as the least likely scenario (10% chance) simply because I don't see an Obama win in Ohio.
The most recent polls put Ohio in Clinton's column:
ARG: Clinton 51, Obama 44, Undecided: 4
Zogby (for what it's worth): Clinton:45, Obama: 45, Undecided: 6
Rasmussen: Clinton: 47, Obama:45
Fox/Opinion Dynamics: Clinton: 46, Obama: 38, Undecided: 14
SUSA: Clinton: 50, Obama: 44, Undecided: 3
Now, polls have been all over the place this year, none of them have been very reliable but, it seems apparent that Clinton has solidified her position in Ohio. We'll see how the late breakers are going when polls come out tomorrow and monday, but the Obama camp can't be hopeful. I suspect the Obama campaign saw this in their internals earlier this week when they left Ohio and went back to Texas and Rhode Island (most likely just to try and keep Clinton's Ohio numbers down) before returning to Ohio tonight.
Clinton's base - folks over 65 and folks who make less than 50K/year are clearly in her camp, and there may be a tinge of racism to overcome in Ohio (see also Ed Rendell's comments on Ohio's neighboring state, PA):
The only hope for an Obama win in Ohio is for the Obama GOTV to outperform and, for these <50K Hillary supporters to stay home.
Which brings us to scenario #2....
2. Rhode Island: Clinton Win, Vermont: Obama win, Ohio: Narrow Clinton win (6 pts or less), Texas: Obama win: I put this as the most likely scenario (50%).
But, there does seem to be some concern here too. Obama appeared to be pulling ahead in Texas the middle of this past week, but the most recent polls seem to show a Clinton come-back:
ARG: Obama:47, Clinton: 47, Undecided: 4
Zogby (again, for what its worth): Obama: 45, Clinton: 43, Undecided: 8
Rasmussen: Obama: 48, Clinton: 44, Undecided: 8
SUSA: Obama: 49, Clinton: 45, Undecided: 3
it looks like Obama has the upper hand in Texas, but as this comment at myDD states, it looks like, over the past couple of days, Clinton's base (<50K/year, >65, Hispanic) is coming home to her at the end.
Which brings us to scenario #3...
3. Rhode Island: Clinton Win, Vermont: Obama win, Ohio: Narrow Clinton win (6 pts or less), Texas: Clinton popular vote win, delegate loss. I rank this as a possible outcome Tuesday (30%) and it is clear that this is what the Clinton camp is hoping for.
I'll address this scenario in more detail below, but lets get on with the remaining possibilities for now...
4: Rhode Island: Clinton win, Vermont: Obama win, Ohio: Narrow Clinton win (6 pts or less), Texas: Clinton win (popular vote and delegates). Obviously this is the Clinton dream scenario but I think its unlikely (5%).
Now there are some other variations on these scenarios: an Obama win in Rhode Island, big (>8%) wins for Obama in Texas and Ohio, big (>8%) wins for Clinton in Texas and Ohio, but each is very unlikely (1-2% chance).
So how does this nomination play out given these scenarios?
Scenario #1: If Obama wins Ohio & Texas, no matter what the margin, Clinton is done. She will be forced to suspend her campaign within days, if she does not do it Tuesday night. The Super Delegates will break for Obama in droves, headlined by Edwards, Richardson and possibly even Gore. Obama will then be free to begin the campaign for the general election as he wraps up the nomination in WV, NC, PA et. al.
Now, I have seen several comments about how it would be better for Obama if Clinton were to stay in so that Obama can have the chance to build up his organization in these post-March 4 states. I say hogwash. The sooner this ends, the better for the nominee. I would argue that the reason Obama seems to be slipping in Texas the past couple of days is because he has had to wage a two front campaign the past 10 days: one against Clinton and one against McCain. If Obama has to do this from now until Puerto Rico, he will be wounded for the general election. The sooner he can take over the reigns of the party, the better.
Scenario #2: This is the tough one. Clearly Obama has broken the Clinton firewall. But, the Clinton campaign has been laying the ground work to continue on if this is the scenario that comes to pass. It seems clear that they are going to argue that the Texas rules (primary & caucus) are unfair, and possibly file a (BS) lawsuit to try and put the Texas results into question. Clinton will argue that the goalposts have to moved again - to Pennsylvania on April 22, and we will be right back where we are now - Obama ahead in states, popular vote & delegates and Clinton somehow still hanging on waiting for something to turn the race her way. Between March 4 and April 22, Obama should be expected to win Wyoming (12 delegates) on March 8 and Mississippi (33 delegates) on March 11 so there is the possibility that Obama blow-outs in those states could put the pressure on Clinton to drop out on March 12, but, given the Clinton campaign's penchant for dismissing caucuses and red-state wins, this is unlikely.
With this in mind, if scenario #2 is what we end up with on Tuesday, there will need to be a game-changer to put the pressure on Clinton : Edwards or Gore endorsement, party leaders sitting her down and telling her to suspend etc, or we are waiting until PA. If the race goes to PA, Obama has to win PA or keep it close the argue that he's won the most delegates.
Scenario #3: If this happens, its off to PA. I don't think Obama would have the moral authority to argue that Clinton should suspend, even though there is still no realistic way she can catch him in delegates. We'll have to see what the PA results show - PA becomes a must win for Obama. Under this scenario I suspect the nomination goes all the way to the convention.
Scenario #4: Again, off to PA. I suspect this is the game changer scenario for Clinton. All of her arguments concerning Michigan and Florida will have to be addressed and PA will probably be the deciding contest, with the winner being the nominee.
So, here's where I think we are at:
10% chance the race ends Tuesday night.
50% chance the race ends sometime between March 4 and March 12
30% chance the race goes all the way to the convention
10% chance the race ends April 22.
So here's the scenarios:
1. Rhode Island: Clinton Win, Vermont: Obama Win, Ohio: narrow Obama win, Texas: Obama win: I put this as the least likely scenario (10% chance) simply because I don't see an Obama win in Ohio.
The most recent polls put Ohio in Clinton's column:
ARG: Clinton 51, Obama 44, Undecided: 4
Zogby (for what it's worth): Clinton:45, Obama: 45, Undecided: 6
Rasmussen: Clinton: 47, Obama:45
Fox/Opinion Dynamics: Clinton: 46, Obama: 38, Undecided: 14
SUSA: Clinton: 50, Obama: 44, Undecided: 3
Now, polls have been all over the place this year, none of them have been very reliable but, it seems apparent that Clinton has solidified her position in Ohio. We'll see how the late breakers are going when polls come out tomorrow and monday, but the Obama camp can't be hopeful. I suspect the Obama campaign saw this in their internals earlier this week when they left Ohio and went back to Texas and Rhode Island (most likely just to try and keep Clinton's Ohio numbers down) before returning to Ohio tonight.
Clinton's base - folks over 65 and folks who make less than 50K/year are clearly in her camp, and there may be a tinge of racism to overcome in Ohio (see also Ed Rendell's comments on Ohio's neighboring state, PA):
If Hillary doesn't get the nomination, this man said, he'd not only vote for but work for McCain, "and I hate McCain."
"Why not Obama?"
"He's too inexperienced."
"And why else?" a woman down the bar asked.
"Because he's black."
The only hope for an Obama win in Ohio is for the Obama GOTV to outperform and, for these <50K Hillary supporters to stay home.
Which brings us to scenario #2....
2. Rhode Island: Clinton Win, Vermont: Obama win, Ohio: Narrow Clinton win (6 pts or less), Texas: Obama win: I put this as the most likely scenario (50%).
But, there does seem to be some concern here too. Obama appeared to be pulling ahead in Texas the middle of this past week, but the most recent polls seem to show a Clinton come-back:
ARG: Obama:47, Clinton: 47, Undecided: 4
Zogby (again, for what its worth): Obama: 45, Clinton: 43, Undecided: 8
Rasmussen: Obama: 48, Clinton: 44, Undecided: 8
SUSA: Obama: 49, Clinton: 45, Undecided: 3
it looks like Obama has the upper hand in Texas, but as this comment at myDD states, it looks like, over the past couple of days, Clinton's base (<50K/year, >65, Hispanic) is coming home to her at the end.
Which brings us to scenario #3...
3. Rhode Island: Clinton Win, Vermont: Obama win, Ohio: Narrow Clinton win (6 pts or less), Texas: Clinton popular vote win, delegate loss. I rank this as a possible outcome Tuesday (30%) and it is clear that this is what the Clinton camp is hoping for.
I'll address this scenario in more detail below, but lets get on with the remaining possibilities for now...
4: Rhode Island: Clinton win, Vermont: Obama win, Ohio: Narrow Clinton win (6 pts or less), Texas: Clinton win (popular vote and delegates). Obviously this is the Clinton dream scenario but I think its unlikely (5%).
Now there are some other variations on these scenarios: an Obama win in Rhode Island, big (>8%) wins for Obama in Texas and Ohio, big (>8%) wins for Clinton in Texas and Ohio, but each is very unlikely (1-2% chance).
So how does this nomination play out given these scenarios?
Scenario #1: If Obama wins Ohio & Texas, no matter what the margin, Clinton is done. She will be forced to suspend her campaign within days, if she does not do it Tuesday night. The Super Delegates will break for Obama in droves, headlined by Edwards, Richardson and possibly even Gore. Obama will then be free to begin the campaign for the general election as he wraps up the nomination in WV, NC, PA et. al.
Now, I have seen several comments about how it would be better for Obama if Clinton were to stay in so that Obama can have the chance to build up his organization in these post-March 4 states. I say hogwash. The sooner this ends, the better for the nominee. I would argue that the reason Obama seems to be slipping in Texas the past couple of days is because he has had to wage a two front campaign the past 10 days: one against Clinton and one against McCain. If Obama has to do this from now until Puerto Rico, he will be wounded for the general election. The sooner he can take over the reigns of the party, the better.
Scenario #2: This is the tough one. Clearly Obama has broken the Clinton firewall. But, the Clinton campaign has been laying the ground work to continue on if this is the scenario that comes to pass. It seems clear that they are going to argue that the Texas rules (primary & caucus) are unfair, and possibly file a (BS) lawsuit to try and put the Texas results into question. Clinton will argue that the goalposts have to moved again - to Pennsylvania on April 22, and we will be right back where we are now - Obama ahead in states, popular vote & delegates and Clinton somehow still hanging on waiting for something to turn the race her way. Between March 4 and April 22, Obama should be expected to win Wyoming (12 delegates) on March 8 and Mississippi (33 delegates) on March 11 so there is the possibility that Obama blow-outs in those states could put the pressure on Clinton to drop out on March 12, but, given the Clinton campaign's penchant for dismissing caucuses and red-state wins, this is unlikely.
With this in mind, if scenario #2 is what we end up with on Tuesday, there will need to be a game-changer to put the pressure on Clinton : Edwards or Gore endorsement, party leaders sitting her down and telling her to suspend etc, or we are waiting until PA. If the race goes to PA, Obama has to win PA or keep it close the argue that he's won the most delegates.
Scenario #3: If this happens, its off to PA. I don't think Obama would have the moral authority to argue that Clinton should suspend, even though there is still no realistic way she can catch him in delegates. We'll have to see what the PA results show - PA becomes a must win for Obama. Under this scenario I suspect the nomination goes all the way to the convention.
Scenario #4: Again, off to PA. I suspect this is the game changer scenario for Clinton. All of her arguments concerning Michigan and Florida will have to be addressed and PA will probably be the deciding contest, with the winner being the nominee.
So, here's where I think we are at:
10% chance the race ends Tuesday night.
50% chance the race ends sometime between March 4 and March 12
30% chance the race goes all the way to the convention
10% chance the race ends April 22.
Monday, February 11, 2008
Waiting for the Damn to Break: It's Obama's to Loose
Digby's Got it:
That's the way I see it too. We are heading for a showdown March 4th that will decide this election.
Get ready folks, the dam is going to break. Who gets washed away is still unknown, but someone will. Lets set the scene:
1. Right now, as everyone knows, Obama has had a hell of a weekend - blow out wins everywhere (and margin of victory is very important now as I will argue below) and a Grammy to boot.
2. More bad news for the Clinton camp as they shake up their campaign. This is actually a good time to do it - better now than after the beltway primary, which is probably going Obama's way. That way there won't be weeks of talking about how shaken the Clinton campaign is. Get it over now, suffer the news cycle until Tuesday night when the narrative will change.
3. Mini Tuesday: the Potomac / beltway primary: MD, VA & DC. Most likely going 3-0 for Obama but there are some upsides for Clinton:
(a) Win 1 state - If Clinton can pull a rabbit out of the hat and win at least 1 state, with some good "spin", she's probably back in the driver's seat for March 4.
(b) I think (a) is unlikely but I do think this is essential - Clinton cannot loose 59-39 or 60-40 like she has this weekend. She has to keep the margin of victory within 10 points in at least 2 of the 3 states. Why? Because after this weekend people are going to start to notice how Obama has really been blowing her out. There's starting to be a pattern to this and if it continues, it will be discussed over and over in the Media.
4. The Big MO: so far this election nobody seems to be able to keep the MO. But if Obama goes 8-0 this week, all basically 59-39 or better, he's probably got it and that will run right into ...
5. Feb 19 WI & HI. Right now, these are probably narrow Obama wins but with MO, Obama could run off another couple of 59-39 blowouts. It will be interesting to see after Tuesday what the Clinton campaign does - do they put all the eggs in the basket and go to TX & OH or do they try and compete in WI to hope for a win to stop momentum? Also, look and see if Obama does the unthinkable and makes a flyout to HI. Even though HI should be a "home state" for Obama, Clinton does have some advantages there (Inouye endorsement, large Asian population, large senior population). If you see Obama visiting is old HI haunts then we'll know that his internal polls show him in a tight race with Clinton in HI or he doesn't have the blow out and wants to try and run up the numbers.
and now...
Dam #1: March 4.
OH & TX will be incredibly important. They are essentially the ball game now. Obama wins both - Clinton gets a visit from the party elders telling her to drop out. Obama wins one, Clinton gets one - depending on how big the margins of victory are in TX & OH it could go either way (either Clinton starts getting pressure to drop out or she gets to go to Dam #2). Clinton gets both - we go to Dam #2.
Dam #2: PA - April 22. This is it. This is where it ends. If we get here whoever looses will be told to drop out for party unity.
Right now, I see dam #2 as only a remote possibility. I suspect that the voters are going to see the Obama's 8-0 run, begin to let the Clinton campaign troubles start to seep into their consciousness and give Obama some more 59-39 blow outs in Feb 19. All of this will then snowball, along with what I expect to be MASSIVE media buys in TX & OH by Obama. He'll surf this wave of MO for a win in OH and a win in TX. And that will be it. The voters will have effectively ended it.
Yes, I know its a long time between now and then and anything can happen. I also know there's a lot of assumptions to this scenario, but like I said, Digby's right - the voters are going to decide this soon. I think that means that the soft Clinton supporters are going to start moving.
Now, this may just be wishful hoping on my part but if we do get to the "Thermonuclear Option" where we go all the way to Puerto Rico with both campaigns and no clear leader and it becomes apparent that super delegates are going to decide the nominee at the convention, I propose that instead of pressuring them to pick a side now, they take the following pledge:
As a super delegate I pledge to support with my super delegate vote at the convention:
a. If I am an elected official, either the winner of my State's primary or caucus or my congressional district or..
b. The person who has the pledged delegate lead after the last primary or caucus.
If I am not an elected official, I will support with my super delegate vote at the convention, the person who has the pledged delegate lead after the last primary or caucus.
The term pledged delegate lead means that person who has a majority of pledged delegates (50% of the assigned delegates +1) under the DNC rules.
While I am a super delegate, until the last primary or caucus, I am free to support any candidate in any manner except I may not imply in any manner that I will promise my super delegate vote at the convention to that candidate of he or she does not have the pledged delegate lead overall, in my state or in my congressional district.
Personally, I don't think we'll have a tie much longer. It's hard to see how either candidate can unify the country if they can't demonstrate that they can unify the Democratic Party. Something has to break and I suspect voters will be the ones to do it.
That's the way I see it too. We are heading for a showdown March 4th that will decide this election.
Get ready folks, the dam is going to break. Who gets washed away is still unknown, but someone will. Lets set the scene:
1. Right now, as everyone knows, Obama has had a hell of a weekend - blow out wins everywhere (and margin of victory is very important now as I will argue below) and a Grammy to boot.
2. More bad news for the Clinton camp as they shake up their campaign. This is actually a good time to do it - better now than after the beltway primary, which is probably going Obama's way. That way there won't be weeks of talking about how shaken the Clinton campaign is. Get it over now, suffer the news cycle until Tuesday night when the narrative will change.
3. Mini Tuesday: the Potomac / beltway primary: MD, VA & DC. Most likely going 3-0 for Obama but there are some upsides for Clinton:
(a) Win 1 state - If Clinton can pull a rabbit out of the hat and win at least 1 state, with some good "spin", she's probably back in the driver's seat for March 4.
(b) I think (a) is unlikely but I do think this is essential - Clinton cannot loose 59-39 or 60-40 like she has this weekend. She has to keep the margin of victory within 10 points in at least 2 of the 3 states. Why? Because after this weekend people are going to start to notice how Obama has really been blowing her out. There's starting to be a pattern to this and if it continues, it will be discussed over and over in the Media.
4. The Big MO: so far this election nobody seems to be able to keep the MO. But if Obama goes 8-0 this week, all basically 59-39 or better, he's probably got it and that will run right into ...
5. Feb 19 WI & HI. Right now, these are probably narrow Obama wins but with MO, Obama could run off another couple of 59-39 blowouts. It will be interesting to see after Tuesday what the Clinton campaign does - do they put all the eggs in the basket and go to TX & OH or do they try and compete in WI to hope for a win to stop momentum? Also, look and see if Obama does the unthinkable and makes a flyout to HI. Even though HI should be a "home state" for Obama, Clinton does have some advantages there (Inouye endorsement, large Asian population, large senior population). If you see Obama visiting is old HI haunts then we'll know that his internal polls show him in a tight race with Clinton in HI or he doesn't have the blow out and wants to try and run up the numbers.
and now...
Dam #1: March 4.
OH & TX will be incredibly important. They are essentially the ball game now. Obama wins both - Clinton gets a visit from the party elders telling her to drop out. Obama wins one, Clinton gets one - depending on how big the margins of victory are in TX & OH it could go either way (either Clinton starts getting pressure to drop out or she gets to go to Dam #2). Clinton gets both - we go to Dam #2.
Dam #2: PA - April 22. This is it. This is where it ends. If we get here whoever looses will be told to drop out for party unity.
Right now, I see dam #2 as only a remote possibility. I suspect that the voters are going to see the Obama's 8-0 run, begin to let the Clinton campaign troubles start to seep into their consciousness and give Obama some more 59-39 blow outs in Feb 19. All of this will then snowball, along with what I expect to be MASSIVE media buys in TX & OH by Obama. He'll surf this wave of MO for a win in OH and a win in TX. And that will be it. The voters will have effectively ended it.
Yes, I know its a long time between now and then and anything can happen. I also know there's a lot of assumptions to this scenario, but like I said, Digby's right - the voters are going to decide this soon. I think that means that the soft Clinton supporters are going to start moving.
Now, this may just be wishful hoping on my part but if we do get to the "Thermonuclear Option" where we go all the way to Puerto Rico with both campaigns and no clear leader and it becomes apparent that super delegates are going to decide the nominee at the convention, I propose that instead of pressuring them to pick a side now, they take the following pledge:
As a super delegate I pledge to support with my super delegate vote at the convention:
a. If I am an elected official, either the winner of my State's primary or caucus or my congressional district or..
b. The person who has the pledged delegate lead after the last primary or caucus.
If I am not an elected official, I will support with my super delegate vote at the convention, the person who has the pledged delegate lead after the last primary or caucus.
The term pledged delegate lead means that person who has a majority of pledged delegates (50% of the assigned delegates +1) under the DNC rules.
While I am a super delegate, until the last primary or caucus, I am free to support any candidate in any manner except I may not imply in any manner that I will promise my super delegate vote at the convention to that candidate of he or she does not have the pledged delegate lead overall, in my state or in my congressional district.
Sunday, February 10, 2008
Mapping the Nomination From Here...
Time to start wondering how this will all end.
Maybe its a bit premature, but I think this will be relevant come Tuesday night.
As I see it, TX and OH could end this campaign. I see two issues to end it:
1. Will Obama win TX & OH?
2. Will Clinton see the writing on the wall and bow out if he does?
So, as I see it, counting only pledged (not super) delegates, Obama is ahead:
Obama: 1,012
Clinton: 940
Tomorrow is Maine so lets assume, a split 12 to 12
which brings us to:
O: 1,024
C: 952
Next week we have the Beltway Primary. Assume this shakes out for Obama:
DC: O 11, C 4
MD: O 40, C 30
VA: O 47, C 36
After Tuesday we could be at:
O: 1122
C: 1022
On the 19th, we add in HI and WI. HI is a home state for Obama so lets assume that goes for him 13 to 7, and give Clinton the benefit of the doubt in WI and split the delegates 37-37. Then we have:
O: 1172
C: 1066
Now, assume Obama wins TX & OH, say 53-47. Lets assign delegates here for our scenario:
OH: O 73 C 68
TX: O 101 C 92
and RI and VT:
RI: O 12 C 9
VT O 8 C 7
At this point we are at:
O: 1366
C: 1242
Now, assuming this happens, Obama now has the pledged delegate lead and has run the table on Clinton since Super Tuesday. Here are my questions:
1. Is it over? Is Obama the presumptive nominee? Remember there are still states to vote - they are:
State Date Delegates
WI 3/8 12
Miss 3/11 33
PA 4/22 158
Guam 5/4 4
Indiana 5/6 72
NC 5/6 115
WVA 5/13 28
KY 5/20 51
OR 5/20 52
MT 6/3 16
SD 6/3 15
PR 6/7 55
So there's still 611 delegates out, but even if it went 70-30 for either candidate, nobody is gonna get the majority needed to guarantee the nomination. I guess what I am asking is this: do democrats come together at this point and say to Clinton, you lost everything since Super Tuesday, you lost TX & OH, time to hang it up?
2. If the answer to #1 is yes, should she drop out? I'm very interested to hear from Clinton supporters here. BTW, please don't argue how FL & MI count - lets not get into that right now. If you want to argue FL & MI, they you have to provide a solution to the problem of how to count them and be fair to Obama.
3. So if the consensus is she should drop out if she looses FL & TX, then here's my final question - Do you think she will do it? Is it in her character to bow out gracefully or will she fight to the bitter end?
So those are my questions.
Just to get it started, I think if Obama runs the table through March 4, pressure must be brought to bear on Clinton to drop out. Personally I don't think she will and she'll fight to the bitter end. On the other hand, if Clinton can take one of either OH or TX, I think she's earned the right to continue until at least PA. If she wins that, she's earned the right to fight on (either until the end or until it becomes obvious she can't win the overall pledged delegate count).
Maybe its a bit premature, but I think this will be relevant come Tuesday night.
As I see it, TX and OH could end this campaign. I see two issues to end it:
1. Will Obama win TX & OH?
2. Will Clinton see the writing on the wall and bow out if he does?
So, as I see it, counting only pledged (not super) delegates, Obama is ahead:
Obama: 1,012
Clinton: 940
Tomorrow is Maine so lets assume, a split 12 to 12
which brings us to:
O: 1,024
C: 952
Next week we have the Beltway Primary. Assume this shakes out for Obama:
DC: O 11, C 4
MD: O 40, C 30
VA: O 47, C 36
After Tuesday we could be at:
O: 1122
C: 1022
On the 19th, we add in HI and WI. HI is a home state for Obama so lets assume that goes for him 13 to 7, and give Clinton the benefit of the doubt in WI and split the delegates 37-37. Then we have:
O: 1172
C: 1066
Now, assume Obama wins TX & OH, say 53-47. Lets assign delegates here for our scenario:
OH: O 73 C 68
TX: O 101 C 92
and RI and VT:
RI: O 12 C 9
VT O 8 C 7
At this point we are at:
O: 1366
C: 1242
Now, assuming this happens, Obama now has the pledged delegate lead and has run the table on Clinton since Super Tuesday. Here are my questions:
1. Is it over? Is Obama the presumptive nominee? Remember there are still states to vote - they are:
State Date Delegates
WI 3/8 12
Miss 3/11 33
PA 4/22 158
Guam 5/4 4
Indiana 5/6 72
NC 5/6 115
WVA 5/13 28
KY 5/20 51
OR 5/20 52
MT 6/3 16
SD 6/3 15
PR 6/7 55
So there's still 611 delegates out, but even if it went 70-30 for either candidate, nobody is gonna get the majority needed to guarantee the nomination. I guess what I am asking is this: do democrats come together at this point and say to Clinton, you lost everything since Super Tuesday, you lost TX & OH, time to hang it up?
2. If the answer to #1 is yes, should she drop out? I'm very interested to hear from Clinton supporters here. BTW, please don't argue how FL & MI count - lets not get into that right now. If you want to argue FL & MI, they you have to provide a solution to the problem of how to count them and be fair to Obama.
3. So if the consensus is she should drop out if she looses FL & TX, then here's my final question - Do you think she will do it? Is it in her character to bow out gracefully or will she fight to the bitter end?
So those are my questions.
Just to get it started, I think if Obama runs the table through March 4, pressure must be brought to bear on Clinton to drop out. Personally I don't think she will and she'll fight to the bitter end. On the other hand, if Clinton can take one of either OH or TX, I think she's earned the right to continue until at least PA. If she wins that, she's earned the right to fight on (either until the end or until it becomes obvious she can't win the overall pledged delegate count).
Saturday, February 9, 2008
Real Delegate Count: Obama 1,012 Clinton 940
This is pledged delegates only, no supers.
This includes projections for those delegates that have not yet been officially awarded from super Tuesday.
Forget super delegates for now, forget Florida and Michigan for now. The only number that matters is pledged delegates.
Obama Total: 1,012
Clinton Total: 940
Yes, these numbers are the same as the Obama campaign but, when I run them on my spreadsheet, this is what I get too. All campaigns will spin but Obama's has been pretty straight up with delegate counts from day one (they were right on Nevada going 50-50 and they are correctly assigning New Mexico 50-50 even though there's no final count).
CNN's numbers are just stupid. They include super-delegates and they have yet to assign a bunch of delegates from super Tuesday.
This includes projections for those delegates that have not yet been officially awarded from super Tuesday.
Forget super delegates for now, forget Florida and Michigan for now. The only number that matters is pledged delegates.
Obama Total: 1,012
Clinton Total: 940
Yes, these numbers are the same as the Obama campaign but, when I run them on my spreadsheet, this is what I get too. All campaigns will spin but Obama's has been pretty straight up with delegate counts from day one (they were right on Nevada going 50-50 and they are correctly assigning New Mexico 50-50 even though there's no final count).
CNN's numbers are just stupid. They include super-delegates and they have yet to assign a bunch of delegates from super Tuesday.
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
California Delegate Math Deciphered
So, there's lots of confusion how you count delegates in California.
I'll take a shot at trying to start off the explanation. Hopefully someone can do the math....
CA has 53 congressional districts.
In 21 on those there are an odd number of delegates to win.
So, in the districts with an even number of delegates available, Clinton and Obama will split them (i.e if 4 are available, Clinton gets 2 and Obama gets 2). However, if one candidate gets more than 62.5% in an even number district, then they can "win" one of the other candidates delegates and thus "win" that district. Last I checked, (3am), Clinton is only up by 62.5% in a couple of congressional districts. So, in 30 or so districts, Obama and Clinton split the available delegates
Here's a link to all the districts in CA: CA Congressional District results
Here's a link that lists how may delegates each district gets: delegates
So, its only in the remaining 21 where an odd number is available that Clinton or Obama can win and extra delegate.
I suspect Obama's folks have done the math and know that no matter what, they end the night + or - 10 or so delegates (they just sent an email that they have won the most delegates tonight so maybe the did the math and they are up a few delegates).
Now, Clinton keeps adding her Super Delegates to her totals. Personally, I think thats BS since supers can change their mind at any time. I think the important number right now is how many delegates were won in the election. If this race looks like its going to the convention then supers come into play.
I'll take a shot at trying to start off the explanation. Hopefully someone can do the math....
CA has 53 congressional districts.
In 21 on those there are an odd number of delegates to win.
So, in the districts with an even number of delegates available, Clinton and Obama will split them (i.e if 4 are available, Clinton gets 2 and Obama gets 2). However, if one candidate gets more than 62.5% in an even number district, then they can "win" one of the other candidates delegates and thus "win" that district. Last I checked, (3am), Clinton is only up by 62.5% in a couple of congressional districts. So, in 30 or so districts, Obama and Clinton split the available delegates
Here's a link to all the districts in CA: CA Congressional District results
Here's a link that lists how may delegates each district gets: delegates
So, its only in the remaining 21 where an odd number is available that Clinton or Obama can win and extra delegate.
I suspect Obama's folks have done the math and know that no matter what, they end the night + or - 10 or so delegates (they just sent an email that they have won the most delegates tonight so maybe the did the math and they are up a few delegates).
Now, Clinton keeps adding her Super Delegates to her totals. Personally, I think thats BS since supers can change their mind at any time. I think the important number right now is how many delegates were won in the election. If this race looks like its going to the convention then supers come into play.
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
Someone Please Save Universal Music From Itself!
Seth Mnookin (who also wrote an excellent book on the Red Sox) has an interview in Wired with Doug Morris, CEO of Universal Music. The interview is a must read. Its clear that Morris absolutely hates his customers:
Morris goes on to rail against criminal-minded college students andand despises Steve Jobs and Apple:
low-life punks who steal the music that his artists work so hard to
create. He admits to being fairly ignorant about technology and insists
that his job is to nurture the creative side of the business — work
that's being threatened by all of this other nonsense.
...
He wants to wring every dollar he can out of anyone who goes anywhere
near his catalog. Morris has never accepted the digital world's ruling
ethos that it's better to follow the smartest long-term strategy, even
if it means near-term losses. As far as he's concerned, do that and
someone, somewhere, is taking advantage of you. Morris wants to be paid
now, not in some nebulous future. And if there's one thing he knows how
to do, it's use the size of his company to get his way.
"We were just grateful that someone was selling online. The problem is,And Morris is still deluding himself about music subscriptions:
he became a gatekeeper. We make a lot of money from him, and suddenly
you're wearing golden handcuffs. We would hate to give up that income."
Total Music subscription would come pre-installed on devices like
the Zune, the Sony PlayStation, or a mobile phone. Universal is well
aware of the difficulty of convincing consumers to pay for music
subscriptions, so Morris wants the device makers to pony up the cash
themselves, either by shelling out for a six-month introductory offer
or by assuming the cost forever. This would be money well spent, Morris
argues, because it would help the Microsofts of the world eat into the
iPod's market share. He has already hammered out preliminary agreements
with Warner and Sony BMG and has met with executives at Microsoft and
several wireless carriers. If Morris is able to make Total Music a
reality, he will once again have succeeded in bending the industry to
his will — in this case, by using the combined catalogs of the major
labels to help establish a true competitor to the iPod. After all, why
buy an iPod if a Zune will give you songs for free?
Unfortunately, Total Music will almost certainly require some form
of DRM, which in the end will perpetuate the interoperability problem.
Morris likely doesn't care. He is more committed to Total Music — or
any other plan that allows protection — than he is to a future where
music can truly be played across any platform, at any time. "Our
strategy is to have the people who create great music be paid
properly," he says. "We need to protect the music. I know that."
I guess this is why Rick Rubin (Morris' cohead of Columbia Records) has drunk the cool-aid on music subscriptions. The problem is that people do not want to subscribe to music - they want to own it.
I mean doesn't anybody at Universal get it? Where are the stockholders? Is this guy so powerful that he can run his company into the ground? I think Mnookin concludes that yes, Morris is that powerful and implies that if the "Total Music" initiative fails and/or iTunes climbs the last hurdle:
This year, 22 percent of all music sold in the US will move
through iTunes. "If iTunes gets up to 40 or 50 percent, they'll have
too much power for anyone else to enter the business," says James
McQuivey, who analyzes the digital music industry for Forrester
Research.
that he very well may ruin Universal.
Now, trying to unseat the iPod is not a bad business strategy but I think that everything known about consumers and how they want to purchase music says subscriptions are a dead end. Every subscription service has failed or is failing. What that tells me is that the wrong guy is running Universal:
"He wasn't prepared for a business that was going to be so totally
disrupted by technology," says a longtime industry insider who has
worked with Morris. "He just doesn't have that kind of mind."
Universal needs someone who recognizes that technology has transformed the music business and is willing to embrace this. Someone who can take the world's largest music label and get it on the path to the future and not down some dead end to protect short term profits. Someone with a lot of money on hand to take over Universal - say 15 or so billion dollars.
Until that happens, all I can say is ugh! - Will someone please save the music business from itself?
Charles Starrett at iLounge has written an excellent editorial on the growing "War on iTunes" being initiated by Universal. I urge everyone to read it.
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
The Big List of iPhone Tips and Tricks
I've been collecting iPhone Tips and Tricks for some time now. The list has gotten large enough that I thought I'd publish it. Some of these are pretty good, some may not be - YMMV. For ease of use, I've also published this list as a standalone web page. If you have any not listed here, please post them below and I'll add them to the iPhone Tips web page.
So, in no particular order....
Clock
Stocks
Weather
So, in no particular order....
Punctuation/Keyboard Tips
- hit the space bar twice, you get a period.
- Remember
that the iPhone does not register a key press until you release your
finger from the screen. With that in mind, you can quickly get any
punctuation mark by doing the following, all in one motion: Touch the
“.?123” key, but don’t lift your finger as the punctuation layout
appears then slide your finger a half inch onto the period or comma
key, and release. The ABC layout returns automatically. You’ve typed a
period or a comma or any of the punctuation symbols with one finger. - To type all in Caps, use the CAPS LOCK feature, make sure it is enabled in the General
Settings. To use it, simply double-tap on the shift key. The shift key
will turn blue. - If you are writing something and the iPhone flags a word as misspelled
that you know is not misspelled, cancel the correction 3 times and the
word will be put into the dictionary.
Double- Tapping
Headset "Clicker"- In
Photos, Google Maps, and Safari (the Web browser), double-tapping zooms
in on whatever you tap, magnifying it by a factor of two. - In
the same programs, as well as Mail, double-tapping means, “restore to
original size” after you’ve zoomed in. (Weirdly, in Google Maps, you
use a different gesture to zoom out: tap once with two fingers. That
gesture appears nowhere else on the iPhone.) - When you’re watching a video, double-tapping eliminates or restores letterbox bars.
- If you double tap a video while it is playing, you will magnify the image so that it fills the entire screen.
- Pinch once to answer an incoming phone call.
- Pinch
for a couple seconds to dump the call to voicemail. (You can also
double-tap the Sleep/Wake switch on top of the iPhone to send the call
to voicemail.) - During music or video playback, pinch once to pause the music; pinch again to resume playback.
- During music playback, double-pinch to skip to the next song.
- If you aren't using iPod at all and want some music, you can start up iPod mode
with a double-squeeze then a single squeeze to start the music
playing. It will automatically start playing the first song in your
Songs list, and work it's way through.
Customizing the iPod Buttons
- In
the iPod tap the More button, and then tap the Edit button (upper-left
corner). Drag an icon from the top half of the screen downward,
directly onto the existing icon you want to replace. It lights up to
show the success of your drag. When you release your finger, you’ll
see that the new icon has replaced the old one. Tap Done in the
upper-right corner.
Misc.
- The iPhone will automatically capitalize the first letter of a new sentence, so don't bother doing it yourself.
- Don’t put apostrophes in contractions - iPhone will do it automatically.
- If you have multiple apps open like Safari, iPod, Youtube, stocks
etc., when you press Home it does NOT actually clear or
close apps., and this may affect battery usage. To
actually close (or Quit) an application, HOLD the Home button for about
4-8 seconds while in the application.
Reset
- Press and hold the Home button for six seconds to force-quit a program that seems to be stuck.
- If
the entire iPhone locks up press and hold both the Home button and the
Sleep/Wake switch for eight seconds. The screen go black, and then the
Apple logo appears as the iPhone reboots.
Phone
- To
stop an incoming call from ringing, press the sleep / wake button. To
send the call immediately to VoiceMail, press the sleep / wake button
twice. - If you select a photo for a contact from the iPhone, the selected photo is shown full screen for the caller ID.
- If a contacts photo is transferred with the contact's info from the
Address Book, the contact's photo is shown as a thumbnail for the caller ID. - Keeping the favorites screen open allows you to unlock the screen then dial with three motions.
- The home button can be used to access unlocking instead of sleep wake.
Email
- To delete email by just swiping left to right on the email in the list and press the delete button that pops up on the right.
- If you want to save a message you’re working on so you can come back to
it later, tap Cancel. Instead of deleting the message immediately, Mail
pops up a dialog asking you to Save, Don’t Save, or Cancel. Tap Save
and the message is placed in your Drafts folder. If your account
doesn’t currently have a Drafts folder, Mail will create one.
Google Maps
- Typing
in the three letter airport code while in maps will bring the airport
up on the map. So if you are trying to view a map of central NJ, Typing
EWR will bring up the Newark airport. It's relatively quick to zoom
out, recenter over New York, and zoom in again. It seems to recognize
all primary and secondary US airports and many overseas airports as
well. Here's a Link to find airport codes. - Tapping on the address in your contacts opens it up in Google maps.
- You
can send yourself a link (via email) to a map from Google Maps online -
when you click on that link it will open in Google Maps (not Safari).
If you have a bunch of locations you want to save send email links and
save them in an email folder.
Safari
- When
you've scrolled down to the bottom of a page, and you want to go back
to the top- just tap on the top bar of the phone (where "AT&T" and
the time are) and the page jumps right back up to the beginning. - If you want to scroll inside text area form fields and scrollable areas in a page, use two fingers to scroll.
- To email a page to someone tap on the address bar. The Share button on the top left will create a message for you.
- Page
down. When not using a zoomed-in display, double-tap towards the bottom
of the screen. The page will re-center around your tap. - Zoom
onto a single picture. Double-tapping images in Safari zooms them to
fit your iPhone display. If the picture is linked to a URL, this can
prove a little tricky but it works great for non-linked images.
Double-tap again to return to the unzoomed display. - Zoom a
column. You can zoom text columns as well as pictures. Double-tap on
the column to fit it to the display. Double-tap again to return out of
the zoom. Not only does Safari zoom block-quoted text independently of
regular text but if you move your finger after the first
double-tap-to-fit, it interprets the next double-tap as a re-center
page command rather than a return-to-previous-zoom. - Stopping a
scroll. After flicking a page to get it to scroll, you can tap the page
at any time to stop that movement. Don't forget, you can also manually
drag the screen display to reset the part you're viewing. - Manual
zoom. To zoom into a Safari page, put your thumb and forefinger on the
screen and move them apart. To zoom out, pinch the fingers together
after starting with them apart. - Examining the URL. To peek at a
link's destination, touch and hold the link for a few seconds. You can
also do this with images to see if they are linked. If a link appears
and you don't want to activate it, just slide your finger away until
the destination text disappears. - Google Videos. Point your
iPhone browser to a video on google video and choose download for
iPod/PSP and you can watch it right there in safari. - Bookmarks:
Create a separate folder / section for all your iPhone web sites. This
makes is easy to locate them while browsing the we on your iPhone. - RSS. If your favorite 'news' sites offer an RSS feed, bookmark and use that
on your iPhone (I have an "all RSS" bookmark folder to collect them). This can make browsing,
even while on EDGE much faster. - You can get on the internet during a call! You can only do this if your
connected to a WIFI network (it wont work via edge), just hit the home
key and click on Safari. Now your surfing while talking! The person on
the other end can't hear the keyboard clicks either!
Address Book
Notes Hack- Create several subgroups, this can speed up the location of a contact given the lack of an actual search function.
- Since
the Notes cannot be manipulated on the desktop (yet), you can hack your
way aound this to have notes that can be modified on your desktop: (1)
create a new address book group called 'Notes'; (2) create a dummy
address and give it company name "Notes" (3) populate the "Note" field
of this contact entry with plain text This will now sync between
multiple Macs/PCs and always be available on
iPhone, even when it is offline. Simply look in the address group Notes
for these items - not ideal but it works
Clock
- When the alarm wakes you up in the morning, touching the
sleep/wake button will "snooze" and sliding the wake up slider will
turn off the alarm.
Camera
- To get better picture, press and hold the
shutter button. As long as you are holding the button, you can set up
the picture. When you release the button, the picture will be taken.
Stocks
- If you touch the green/red boxes outlining the +/- movement of the stocks, it changes to displaying the %.
Weather
- Click on the yahoo link on the bottom left and safari will launch into Yahoo city guide.
iPhoto (Mac Application)
- The phone shows up in iPhoto by default. To disable this, turn off in image capture
- You can use 'Camera is not Apple iPhone' in a smart playlist
- A contacts picture folder /album is a good idea
- A wallpaper folder / album is a good idea - Create an Album (folder) called iPhone Wallpaper and load up your
favorite 320x480 wallpapers. This makes it very easy to pick a new
wallpaper on your iPhone.
Monday, November 26, 2007
iPhone Development
The iPhone is running a streamlined version of Mac OS X. It uses a Mach kernel, BSD Unix, Cocoa frameworks,
Mac OS X application bundles, and other portions of the Mac operating system.
The iPhone has 8192 MB (8 GB) of Flash RAM
installed. OS X and the iPhone default applications take up about 700 MB . The iPhone also has 128 MB of system RAM used by the running applications.
Sitting above the Mach kernel is the BSD layer with the following directory structure:
/bin
Contains: launchctl, ln, mkdir, mv, rm, cat, expr
/sbin
Contains: fsck, fsck_hfs, fstyp, fstyp_hfs, mount, mount_hfs, kextload, launchd
/etc
Contains: bluetool, racoon, fstab, master.passwd, passwd, ttys, ppp, services, group, hosts, networks
/var/log
contains: flat files
/usr
/bin
contains: ditto, sed
/lib
contains: libcrypto, libgcc, libobjc, libsqulite, libstdc++, libz
/local
contains:
/sbin
contains: fdisk
/Applications
contains:
/Library
contains:
/System
/Library
/CoreServices
contains: SpringBoard, mDNSResponder
/Frameworks
contains: List of iPhone Frameworks:
- AddressBook
- AddressBookUI
- AppSupport
- BluetoothManager
- Calendar
- Camera
- CFNetwork
- Celestial
- CoreAudio
- CoreFoundation
- CoreGraphics
- CoreSurface
- CoreTelephony
- CoreVideo
- DeviceLink
- Foundation
- GraphicsServices
- GMM
- IAP
- IOKit
- IOMobileFramebuffer
- ITSync
- JavaScriptCore
- LayerKit
- MBX2D
- MBXConnect
- MeCCA
- Message
- MessageUI
- MobileBluetooth
- MobileMusicPlayer
- MoviePlayerUI
- MultitouchSupport
- MusicLibrary
- OpenGLES
- PhotoLibrary
- Preferences
- Security
- System
- SystemConfiguration
- TelephonyUI
- UIKit
- URLify
- WebCore
- WebKit
Mac OS X application bundles, and other portions of the Mac operating system.
The iPhone has 8192 MB (8 GB) of Flash RAM
installed. OS X and the iPhone default applications take up about 700 MB . The iPhone also has 128 MB of system RAM used by the running applications.
Sitting above the Mach kernel is the BSD layer with the following directory structure:
/bin
Contains: launchctl, ln, mkdir, mv, rm, cat, expr
/sbin
Contains: fsck, fsck_hfs, fstyp, fstyp_hfs, mount, mount_hfs, kextload, launchd
/etc
Contains: bluetool, racoon, fstab, master.passwd, passwd, ttys, ppp, services, group, hosts, networks
/var/log
contains: flat files
/usr
/bin
contains: ditto, sed
/lib
contains: libcrypto, libgcc, libobjc, libsqulite, libstdc++, libz
/local
contains:
/sbin
contains: fdisk
/Applications
contains:
/Library
contains:
/System
/Library
/CoreServices
contains: SpringBoard, mDNSResponder
/Frameworks
contains: List of iPhone Frameworks:
- AddressBook
- AddressBookUI
- AppSupport
- BluetoothManager
- Calendar
- Camera
- CFNetwork
- Celestial
- CoreAudio
- CoreFoundation
- CoreGraphics
- CoreSurface
- CoreTelephony
- CoreVideo
- DeviceLink
- Foundation
- GraphicsServices
- GMM
- IAP
- IOKit
- IOMobileFramebuffer
- ITSync
- JavaScriptCore
- LayerKit
- MBX2D
- MBXConnect
- MeCCA
- Message
- MessageUI
- MobileBluetooth
- MobileMusicPlayer
- MoviePlayerUI
- MultitouchSupport
- MusicLibrary
- OpenGLES
- PhotoLibrary
- Preferences
- Security
- System
- SystemConfiguration
- TelephonyUI
- UIKit
- URLify
- WebCore
- WebKit
iPhone News Beat: November 26, 2007
Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving. I need another four days off though. Here's the iPhone News Roundup for November 26, 2007:
Fortune interviews Greg Joswiak, Apple's Mr. iPod/iPhone. He's gives some hints about the iPhone SDK.
Slow UK iPhone Sales?
iTunes can unlock German iPhones - for 999 Euros ($1473 dollars - my how the dollar has fallen!).
Steve has the Reality Distortion Field, Apple Stores have their own gravitational field.
3 Days before launch, Orange reveals iPhone service plans.
iPhone UK reception issues.
Slow UK iPhone Sales?
iTunes can unlock German iPhones - for 999 Euros ($1473 dollars - my how the dollar has fallen!).
Steve has the Reality Distortion Field, Apple Stores have their own gravitational field.
3 Days before launch, Orange reveals iPhone service plans.
iPhone UK reception issues.
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
Black Friday Deals
Tomorrow being Thanksgiving, I probably won't be posting until Friday. But, I'm keeping track of the Black Friday Deals. I'll update this entry as new deals become available.
Microsoft Office Deal
If you need Microsoft Office for Mac, then Friday is the day to buy. Here's the deal: Buy any copy of Office 2004 (including the student and teacher edition) and get a $100 rebate. Then:
For $6.99, when Office 2008 is released, Microsoft will send you Office 2008 Special Media Edition."
Microsoft already offers the Special Media Edition upgrade. The $100 rebate is new and available for only the one day.
What makes the deal sweet and cheap is its applicability to Office 2004 Student and Teacher Edition. According to NPD, the Office student version accounts for most copies of the productivity suite sold at retail. However, there is no upgrade option to other Office versions. For 2008, the Student version's Entourage—the Mac equivalent to Outlook—will not support Exchange Server. The offer creates a cheap upgrade path for Mac users looking at getting Office now and don't want to spend big bucks.
Apple Store Deals
No specific info yet, but from past Black Fridays you can expect some really tempting discounts on software, dot mac (I think they sold it for $20 bucks one year), iPods and accessories and Macs. As soon as I hear, I'll post it.
Apple Online Deals
Amazon Deals
Amazon's got their own special section of Amazon.com for Black Friday Deals.
Other
TBD...
The iPhone Killer
It seems every day there is talk of "the iPhone killer" coming soon. Today's entry in the iPhone Killer sweepstakes is the Verizon Voyager. The Voyager, made by LG, sells for $299 and has a touch screen and a flip open keyboard and tries to copy the iPhone's UI. Here's a review (conclusion: not an iPhone Killer), and another (conclusion: best Verizon phone). There's also talk that the RIM 9000 series, coming next year (pic?), is out to kill the iPhone. And of course, there was the much rumored Google Phone that then failed to live up to the hype. The supposed iPhone killer list goes on: there's a linux contender, handset maker HTC's entry, samsung's entry, Nokia's got one too. But nobody seems to be asking the right questions - if the iPhone can be "killed" how can it be done?
It seems strange to me that there even needs to be an "iPhone Killer". I mean, my guesstimate based on Apple's latest iPhone sales numbers is that there have been about 2 to 2.5 million iPhones sold to date (based on Apple's released numbers and a guess factoring in approximate daily sales and the European release of the iPhone). That's a drop in the bucket compared to the total number of cell phones sold (38 million in the U.S. last quarter alone) since the iPhone was released. Even if you only compare the iPhone to other high end "smart" phones, the iPhone has 27% of the smart phone market but its not yet in a dominant position based on sales. So why would you need to have an iPhone killer? two words: mind share. The iPhone has simply come in and transformed the consumer mind share about what a smart phone should be.
Now, without disclosing details regarding my "day job", I get to spend a lot of time playing with many models of smart phones - including some of the "iPhone Killers" mentioned above, some that are not even available in the U.S., and a few that are not available anywhere yet. Some are very cool. But when you compare them to the iPhone in my pocket, they pretty much all suck. Most are like small bricks - they are heavy, boxy and clunky - nothing with the sleek lines and minimalist feel of the iPhone. Even if they have a nice design, they are generally running an operating system that just kills the user experience - Linux, Symbian, RIM or Microsoft (Microsoft is the worst of the bunch. It takes several "clicks" to get even the most basic things done. Don't even get me started about RIM - an OS only a network administrator could love).
That is the first, most basic, reason there will not be an iPhone Killer anytime soon. The other Mobile OS and UI designs are just not ready to compete. Apple's OS X base is several light years ahead of everything else and the IPhone "noun" UI is just perfect for the touch interface. Of course, the iPhone has its flaws too - it desperately needs voice dialing and/or a better way for hands free use on the phone side, the iPod "scrubber" needs a better UI, it needs "disc mode" like all the other iPods have - just to mention a few of my pet peeves. But here's the thing - all of those things can be fixed with a software update when Apple works them out or by 3rd party developers when they get the SDK in February 2008. If you have a crappy OS, then no amount of tinkering is going to be able to fix that.
That's the beauty of the OS X base - Apple has its own experience on the desktop side to draw from as well as all of its 3rd party developers. The iPhone is just an extension of the Mac ecosystem - a reservoir that Symbian or RIM can't tap into. Microsoft can't, to a large extent, make this claim either, given its specialized - and sometimes incompatible - flavor of windows for smart phones and PDAs. Linux, well, is Linux - theoretically I suppose its part of the "Linux ecosystem" - if one even exists - but Linux is just not a player yet as there are very few Linux smart phones right now. Despite my dismissal of Android, Google has the right idea to go after the mobile OS market instead of releasing an actual phone because that's the key advantage the iPhone has.
The other major advantage Apple has is that it is "Apple, the brand" and all that entails. If Motorola introduced a phone with the exact same feature set as the iPhone a year ago, they would not have gotten the same amount and quality of attention that Apple did. I don't see how the maker of any "iPhone Killer" can get around that anytime soon.
The final major advantage is the iPod. There's no doubt that Apple is a monopoly in the digital music business and is not going to be caught there anytime soon. Apple's video business is also up and coming. Until someone can kills iTunes, they are probably not going to "kill" the iPhone. That's why I have to laugh every time a supposed "iPhone killer" comes up with a phone tied to some minor "music store" or to the cell carriers ridiculously expensive "media store". Please stop (and I am looking at you Verizon) the madness - iTunes has won.
Everything else is just features - screen size, touch screen, wifi, bluetooth, the webkit based safari web browser (and don't underestimate the iPhone's advantage here even though other manufactures can and do use webkit. The web browsing experience on the iPhone is better that everything, and I mean everything, else right now). The iPhone killers keep focusing on features and fail to realize that to "kill" the iPhone, features are the least important thing to concentrate on. To paraphrase James Carville - its the OS stupid. Until somebody can come up with an OS that rivals OS X, there will not be an iPhone killer anytime soon.
It seems strange to me that there even needs to be an "iPhone Killer". I mean, my guesstimate based on Apple's latest iPhone sales numbers is that there have been about 2 to 2.5 million iPhones sold to date (based on Apple's released numbers and a guess factoring in approximate daily sales and the European release of the iPhone). That's a drop in the bucket compared to the total number of cell phones sold (38 million in the U.S. last quarter alone) since the iPhone was released. Even if you only compare the iPhone to other high end "smart" phones, the iPhone has 27% of the smart phone market but its not yet in a dominant position based on sales. So why would you need to have an iPhone killer? two words: mind share. The iPhone has simply come in and transformed the consumer mind share about what a smart phone should be.
Now, without disclosing details regarding my "day job", I get to spend a lot of time playing with many models of smart phones - including some of the "iPhone Killers" mentioned above, some that are not even available in the U.S., and a few that are not available anywhere yet. Some are very cool. But when you compare them to the iPhone in my pocket, they pretty much all suck. Most are like small bricks - they are heavy, boxy and clunky - nothing with the sleek lines and minimalist feel of the iPhone. Even if they have a nice design, they are generally running an operating system that just kills the user experience - Linux, Symbian, RIM or Microsoft (Microsoft is the worst of the bunch. It takes several "clicks" to get even the most basic things done. Don't even get me started about RIM - an OS only a network administrator could love).
That is the first, most basic, reason there will not be an iPhone Killer anytime soon. The other Mobile OS and UI designs are just not ready to compete. Apple's OS X base is several light years ahead of everything else and the IPhone "noun" UI is just perfect for the touch interface. Of course, the iPhone has its flaws too - it desperately needs voice dialing and/or a better way for hands free use on the phone side, the iPod "scrubber" needs a better UI, it needs "disc mode" like all the other iPods have - just to mention a few of my pet peeves. But here's the thing - all of those things can be fixed with a software update when Apple works them out or by 3rd party developers when they get the SDK in February 2008. If you have a crappy OS, then no amount of tinkering is going to be able to fix that.
That's the beauty of the OS X base - Apple has its own experience on the desktop side to draw from as well as all of its 3rd party developers. The iPhone is just an extension of the Mac ecosystem - a reservoir that Symbian or RIM can't tap into. Microsoft can't, to a large extent, make this claim either, given its specialized - and sometimes incompatible - flavor of windows for smart phones and PDAs. Linux, well, is Linux - theoretically I suppose its part of the "Linux ecosystem" - if one even exists - but Linux is just not a player yet as there are very few Linux smart phones right now. Despite my dismissal of Android, Google has the right idea to go after the mobile OS market instead of releasing an actual phone because that's the key advantage the iPhone has.
The other major advantage Apple has is that it is "Apple, the brand" and all that entails. If Motorola introduced a phone with the exact same feature set as the iPhone a year ago, they would not have gotten the same amount and quality of attention that Apple did. I don't see how the maker of any "iPhone Killer" can get around that anytime soon.
The final major advantage is the iPod. There's no doubt that Apple is a monopoly in the digital music business and is not going to be caught there anytime soon. Apple's video business is also up and coming. Until someone can kills iTunes, they are probably not going to "kill" the iPhone. That's why I have to laugh every time a supposed "iPhone killer" comes up with a phone tied to some minor "music store" or to the cell carriers ridiculously expensive "media store". Please stop (and I am looking at you Verizon) the madness - iTunes has won.
Everything else is just features - screen size, touch screen, wifi, bluetooth, the webkit based safari web browser (and don't underestimate the iPhone's advantage here even though other manufactures can and do use webkit. The web browsing experience on the iPhone is better that everything, and I mean everything, else right now). The iPhone killers keep focusing on features and fail to realize that to "kill" the iPhone, features are the least important thing to concentrate on. To paraphrase James Carville - its the OS stupid. Until somebody can come up with an OS that rivals OS X, there will not be an iPhone killer anytime soon.
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