Personally, I don't think we'll have a tie much longer. It's hard to see how either candidate can unify the country if they can't demonstrate that they can unify the Democratic Party. Something has to break and I suspect voters will be the ones to do it.
That's the way I see it too. We are heading for a showdown March 4th that will decide this election.
Get ready folks, the dam is going to break. Who gets washed away is still unknown, but someone will. Lets set the scene:
1. Right now, as everyone knows, Obama has had a hell of a weekend - blow out wins everywhere (and margin of victory is very important now as I will argue below) and a Grammy to boot.
2. More bad news for the Clinton camp as they shake up their campaign. This is actually a good time to do it - better now than after the beltway primary, which is probably going Obama's way. That way there won't be weeks of talking about how shaken the Clinton campaign is. Get it over now, suffer the news cycle until Tuesday night when the narrative will change.
3. Mini Tuesday: the Potomac / beltway primary: MD, VA & DC. Most likely going 3-0 for Obama but there are some upsides for Clinton:
(a) Win 1 state - If Clinton can pull a rabbit out of the hat and win at least 1 state, with some good "spin", she's probably back in the driver's seat for March 4.
(b) I think (a) is unlikely but I do think this is essential - Clinton cannot loose 59-39 or 60-40 like she has this weekend. She has to keep the margin of victory within 10 points in at least 2 of the 3 states. Why? Because after this weekend people are going to start to notice how Obama has really been blowing her out. There's starting to be a pattern to this and if it continues, it will be discussed over and over in the Media.
4. The Big MO: so far this election nobody seems to be able to keep the MO. But if Obama goes 8-0 this week, all basically 59-39 or better, he's probably got it and that will run right into ...
5. Feb 19 WI & HI. Right now, these are probably narrow Obama wins but with MO, Obama could run off another couple of 59-39 blowouts. It will be interesting to see after Tuesday what the Clinton campaign does - do they put all the eggs in the basket and go to TX & OH or do they try and compete in WI to hope for a win to stop momentum? Also, look and see if Obama does the unthinkable and makes a flyout to HI. Even though HI should be a "home state" for Obama, Clinton does have some advantages there (Inouye endorsement, large Asian population, large senior population). If you see Obama visiting is old HI haunts then we'll know that his internal polls show him in a tight race with Clinton in HI or he doesn't have the blow out and wants to try and run up the numbers.
and now...
Dam #1: March 4.
OH & TX will be incredibly important. They are essentially the ball game now. Obama wins both - Clinton gets a visit from the party elders telling her to drop out. Obama wins one, Clinton gets one - depending on how big the margins of victory are in TX & OH it could go either way (either Clinton starts getting pressure to drop out or she gets to go to Dam #2). Clinton gets both - we go to Dam #2.
Dam #2: PA - April 22. This is it. This is where it ends. If we get here whoever looses will be told to drop out for party unity.
Right now, I see dam #2 as only a remote possibility. I suspect that the voters are going to see the Obama's 8-0 run, begin to let the Clinton campaign troubles start to seep into their consciousness and give Obama some more 59-39 blow outs in Feb 19. All of this will then snowball, along with what I expect to be MASSIVE media buys in TX & OH by Obama. He'll surf this wave of MO for a win in OH and a win in TX. And that will be it. The voters will have effectively ended it.
Yes, I know its a long time between now and then and anything can happen. I also know there's a lot of assumptions to this scenario, but like I said, Digby's right - the voters are going to decide this soon. I think that means that the soft Clinton supporters are going to start moving.
Now, this may just be wishful hoping on my part but if we do get to the "Thermonuclear Option" where we go all the way to Puerto Rico with both campaigns and no clear leader and it becomes apparent that super delegates are going to decide the nominee at the convention, I propose that instead of pressuring them to pick a side now, they take the following pledge:
As a super delegate I pledge to support with my super delegate vote at the convention:
a. If I am an elected official, either the winner of my State's primary or caucus or my congressional district or..
b. The person who has the pledged delegate lead after the last primary or caucus.
If I am not an elected official, I will support with my super delegate vote at the convention, the person who has the pledged delegate lead after the last primary or caucus.
The term pledged delegate lead means that person who has a majority of pledged delegates (50% of the assigned delegates +1) under the DNC rules.
While I am a super delegate, until the last primary or caucus, I am free to support any candidate in any manner except I may not imply in any manner that I will promise my super delegate vote at the convention to that candidate of he or she does not have the pledged delegate lead overall, in my state or in my congressional district.
