Dan Hamilton's shared items

Wednesday, February 6, 2008

California Delegate Math Deciphered

So, there's lots of confusion how you count delegates in California.

I'll take a shot at trying to start off the explanation. Hopefully someone can do the math....

CA has 53 congressional districts.

In 21 on those there are an odd number of delegates to win.

So, in the districts with an even number of delegates available, Clinton and Obama will split them (i.e if 4 are available, Clinton gets 2 and Obama gets 2). However, if one candidate gets more than 62.5% in an even number district, then they can "win" one of the other candidates delegates and thus "win" that district. Last I checked, (3am), Clinton is only up by 62.5% in a couple of congressional districts. So, in 30 or so districts, Obama and Clinton split the available delegates

Here's a link to all the districts in CA: CA Congressional District results

Here's a link that lists how may delegates each district gets: delegates

So, its only in the remaining 21 where an odd number is available that Clinton or Obama can win and extra delegate.

I suspect Obama's folks have done the math and know that no matter what, they end the night + or - 10 or so delegates (they just sent an email that they have won the most delegates tonight so maybe the did the math and they are up a few delegates).

Now, Clinton keeps adding her Super Delegates to her totals. Personally, I think thats BS since supers can change their mind at any time. I think the important number right now is how many delegates were won in the election. If this race looks like its going to the convention then supers come into play.

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